Key Factors That Will Shape the Real Madrid-Liverpool Champions League Final
On May 26 in Kiev, Ukraine, Real Madrid will face Liverpool for the right to be crowned European champions.
Los Blancos will be looking to make it three in a row, having lifted the 2016 and 2017 Champions League titles in a dominant period for the club, while the Reds will be seeking to end that sequence, repeating their 2005 success in the process.
Any number of factors can impact how things play out between now and the UEFA showpiece, but with the semi-finals in the books, we've taken an early look at the contest and highlighted what might decide it.
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Mohamed Salah in Marcelo's space
Over the course of two legs against Bayern Munich, Real Madrid left enough space and allowed so many chances to be created that people were surprised they didn't concede five in each game.
Every player must take a share of the blame for this, but the flanks—particularly the left one—proved particularly problematic.
It's likely Dani Carvajal's return will shore up the right, and he'll have a wonderful battle of wills with Sadio Mane—a man who has blossomed into form since the turn of the year (and interestingly since the departure of Philippe Coutinho).
But the left side will surely cause Zinedine Zidane splitting headaches as he prepares for the final.
The thought of Mohamed Salah speeding into the gaps Marcelo leaves—allowing Liverpool's best player an entire channel to work in—is an outcome Real Madrid should strive to avoid, yet it's tough to hold any faith in the idea they will actually prevent it.
Bayern Munich made good ground in that area over two legs, initially intending to have Arjen Robben take advantage of the space, but an injury to the Dutchman forced a combination of Joshua Kimmich and Thomas Muller to do it instead.
Marcelo (and Zidane) just watched it happen. As good as the Brazil international was from an attacking perspective, he put in minimal effort defensively; he didn't bother to chase Kimmich down for his goal in the first leg and barely bothered to prevent Muller's cross that led to the 23-year-old's goal in the second.
Put frankly, Real Madrid should consider themselves fortunate this wasn't exploited more heavily—Muller in particular squandered many good chances—and they cannot simply hope Salah proves similarly profligate.
Crosses hurt both sides
Real Madrid aren't the only ones who should be concerned about crosses into the box resulting in goals—Liverpool have walked a dangerous line in this area recently too. Their weakness here is a little more specific than their Spanish opponents', but it remains eminently exploitable all the same.
Real Madrid seem set to suffer from deliveries from both flanks, with Liverpool's duo of full-backs standing as prolific, accurate crossers. Trent Alexander-Arnold's lofted deliveries will have Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane scrambling to clear, while Andrew Robertson's low equivalents should force more heroic blocks.
In the other box, it tends to be Robertson who struggles to defend the far post from crosses—a point highlighted but not exploited by both Southampton and Stoke City recently.
If Cristiano Ronaldo realises this—and Marcelo is allowed to tease balls in for him—he'll be impossible to stymie.
Who asserts themselves?
Unless Zidane springs another surprise with his formation, Real Madrid will likely go 4-4-2—either flat or diamond—against Liverpool's 4-3-3.
If it's the flat variant, it opens the door for the Reds to assert themselves, using their three vs. two man advantage to clamp the midfield; if it's the diamond variant, it would give Los Blancos a four vs. three and an ability to overload each flank depending on where Isco drifts to.
How the midfield shapes clash will form one half of the battle for control. The other half will centre, quite primitively, on who has the guts to play boldly and fearlessly—to play their way—on the big stage in Kiev.
Jurgen Klopp's teams have a nasty habit of wilting in finals and failing to find the gear they so often do on home soil.
The German is on a cup final losing streak of five, with two of those coming as Liverpool manager. It's important to note these finals have been against strong teams such as Bayern Munich and Manchester City, but we should also note Klopp's teams' levels have dropped when it mattered most.
Real Madrid feel at home on the world's biggest stage—that's what consecutive Champions League victories will do for you—but they didn't play at all well against Bayern in the semi-finals. Toni Kroos even admitted as much on Tuesday night, per Marca.
If they show up slack again, Salah and Co. will punish them.
Guaranteed goals
It doesn't matter who you have pegged to win it, we should be near-unanimous in the belief that this tie will yield goals. It pits the two top scorers in the Champions League this season against one another, with Ronaldo in one set of colours and Salah in the other.
Real Madrid's chaotic style of play, focusing almost solely on free-form attacking and patently ignoring defensive structure as a result, has produced goals for both sides in all but three of their European games this season, two of which were clean-sheet victories over APOEL Nicosia.
| Liverpool | 40 | 1st |
| Real Madrid | 30 | 2nd |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 15 | 1st |
| Mohamed Salah | 10 | =2nd |
Liverpool have kept more clean sheets and look more defensively sound—particularly since Virgil van Dijk joined in January—but their defence is comprised of five players who have never competed at this level, one of whom is playing his first senior season.
The intent from both sides will be the same—to attack and take risks—and it should serve up a treat for those of us watching on.
Early prediction: Real Madrid 3-2 Liverpool
All statistics via WhoScored.com
