Kentucky Derby 2018 Odds: Picks and Predictions Based on Recent Betting Lines

A huge field is once again in order at the Kentucky Derby, and since there is no overwhelming favorite in the field, it means that the Run for the Roses should be another wide-open race.

Twenty horses will make their way to the post Saturday at Churchill Downs to run 1 ¼ miles and have a shot at the first Triple Crown race of the season.

Since the field will be so crowded, tactics, ingenuity and racing luck may be the most important factors when it comes to finishing first in this classic race

Post positions were drawn Tuesday morning at the Kentucky race track, and favorite Justify appears to have a favorable position, as he will start out of the seventh position in the starting gate.

Trainers and jockeys want to avoid positions on the far inside or outside in the Kentucky Derby. Horses running close to the rail at the start have little room to maneuver and regularly get caught in traffic or bumped back. Horses on the far outside can avoid traffic, but they often have the greatest distance to run.

Here's a look at the post positions and the early odds for the Kentucky Derby, courtesy of Eric Crawford of WDRB:

Justify is a solid horse who brings an undefeated record into the Derby. He has won all three of his starts, but he never raced as a two-year-old.

That's unusual for a horse that has designs on winning the most famous horse race in America, because no horse has accomplished that feat since Apollo did it in 1882. Justify is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith, and those two are trying to break the 136-year-old trend.

Justify's most recent victory in the Santa Anita Derby is his most impressive to this point in his career. Baffert's horse scored the triumph in mid-April with a time of 1 minute, 49.72 seconds at a distance of 1 ⅛ miles.

Baffert knows that he has gotten the benefit of at least some racing luck since he will start out of the No. 7 position.

"I’m happy," Baffert said, per Jonathan Lintner of Horse Racing Nation. "I think everybody should be happy with their posts."

Mendelssohn is the 5-1 second choice, while Magnum Moon is the third betting choice of 6-1. Longtime Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia established all the morning-line odds.

None of the top contenders have been placed on the far inside or outside.

Mendelssohn will start from the No. 14 position, while Magnum Moon will take off from the No. 16 hole. Outstanding Irish conditioner Aidan O'Brien trains Mendelssohn. 

Mendelssohn appears to be a formidable competitor in this race, since he won the UAE Derby by 18 ½ lengths March 31.

He started his career in rather unimpressive fashion, only able to win one of his first four races, but he comes to Churchill Downs having won three races in a row.

The biggest issue for O'Brien's horse may have been the long trip he took to Kentucky. Horses that regularly run outside the United States and Canada don't usually run well in the Derby. Bold Arrangement finished second in 1986, and he is the last horse from outside of the United States or Canada to crack the top three. 

Magnum Moon appears to be a dangerous horse as well. He has won all four of his races, and his recent triumphs in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby indicate that he will be a force on Saturday. 

Both of those victories came at Oaklawn.

Martin Dokoupil/Associated Press

Predictions

While horses that ship into Churchill Downs have regularly fared poorly, we are impressed by the 18 ½-length win in the UAE Derby. As a result, we are going with Mendelssohn to win the Run for the Roses.

Magnum Moon is an impressive horse and should get close, but he will not beat Mendelssohn. Look for long shot Hofburg, trained by William Mott, to pick up a share of the prize pool and come in third.

Hofburg will start out of the No. 9 hole.