Courtland Sutton Has All the Tools to Be a Steal in the 2018 NFL Draft

The build-up to the NFL draft is an obstacle course for prospects. It begins with the scouting combine, then goes on to pro days and private workouts, and hopefully ends with an early chance to bear-hug Commissioner Roger Goodell. 

Over three months, the best first-round hopefuls are asked to check off boxes. Are they fast enough? Agile enough? Can they jump high enough? Block well enough? Catch consistently enough?

Only a select few put a checkmark on every box. The rest can still be first-round picks while compensating for their weaknesses with appealing strengths.

Which brings us to wide receiver Courtland Sutton and his draft journey, which could end with a late first-round selection. Some development is still needed, but he has the physical gifts to contribute right away and rise fast while far outperforming his draft slot.

There are questions hovering over the entire wide receiver group in the 2018 draft class, and there is no clear leader. However, a late pick in the first round seems to be a growing projection surrounding Sutton, the SMU standout who caught 195 balls over four seasons.

Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com has Sutton slotted to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 19 in his most recent mock draft. That makes sense given how similar he is in body type and playing style to Dez Bryant, who was just cut by the Cowboys. However, Tony Pauline of Draft Analyst recently reported the Cowboys don't consider Sutton a first-round talent, even if head coach Jason Garrett logged valuable one-on-one time with him, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network:

That feeling is mutual among several in the draft community. Sutton isn't listed in the first round in three of the five other mock drafts at NFL.com. He's also absent in the latest from Bleacher Report's Matt Miller. And at CBSSports.com, Chris Trapasso is the outlier, as he has Sutton coming off the board all the way up at No. 9 to the San Francisco 49ers. Three others have him projected for the 24th-overall pick or later.

If he lands at the end of the opening round, or even further back, it might be because Sutton's route running needs some fine-tuning. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com noted as much while observing that Sutton's "route wiggle is average and feels gradual rather than sharp."

An NFC regional scout agreed, but still had a positive outlook on Sutton.

"He's got to get quicker and learn to separate or he's going to be wearing coverage around the field," he told Zierlein. "He's very mentally and physically tough, so I think he'll get it figured out."

That faith seems well-placed. Sutton has imperfections that can be navigated if coaches give him the proper guidance to ensure an upward trajectory continues. As that development happens, the 6'3", 218-pound deep threat and red-zone specialist can be an immediate difference-maker, then become even more of a weapon as he emerges.

He has the length, acrobatic ability and body-positioning instinct in midair to thrive amid chaos while snatching contested catches. Sutton leaned on a wide catch radius to haul in 31 touchdown passes over his final three seasons at SMU.

Throughout his collegiate career, Sutton scored on 15.9 percent of his receptions. The highlights from his 2016 and 2017 seasons—when he scored 22 combined touchdowns—show a receiver who can rise above the chaos of high-traffic areas and also accelerate with breakaway speed after the catch.

The latter skill there will be key for Sutton to have success at the NFL level.

He's more than just a red-zone vacuum. Sutton ran the 40-yard dash in 4.54 seconds at the scouting combine, which is a solid time at his size. He used an imposing combination of size and speed to average 16.5 yards per reception at SMU, with 1,000-plus receiving yards overall in each of his final two seasons.

What drives Sutton's short- and long-term NFL value, and why he has draft-steal potential, is his consistent effectiveness on deep routes. As Pro Football Focus charted, his passer ratings in 2017 when targeted on corner and post routes were high above NCAA averages:

After the catch, he's a punishing presence while powering through contact for extra yards. That's how he rounds out an intensely physical package. His after-the-catch physicality and speed led to 26 missed tackles over his final two college seasons, again per PFF.

Even with all his promise, Sutton may land outside the first round due to team needs and circumstances beyond his control. But that shouldn't be an indictment on his professional potential. Remember, the Steelers' JuJu Smith-Schuster produced right away with 917 regular-season receiving yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie after being drafted 62nd overall.

There are logical first-round fits for Sutton beyond the Cowboys. The Jacksonville Jaguars (29th overall) could use a bulked-up deep threat and more wide receiver depth after the departures of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. And the New Orleans Saints (27th overall) would benefit from a better wingman alongside Michael Thomas.

His future team will be getting a physically gifted pass-catcher who can stretch secondaries and come down with low-percentage catches. More importantly, that team will be getting a potential No. 1 receiver, likely for a fraction of the market value.

That's how draft robbery happens.