Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus NFL Rookie Award Predictions

After months of rumination and speculation, the NFL draft has finally come and gone.

We now know Baker Mayfield will begin his pro career in Cleveland, where he'll hope to both become the franchise quarterback the Browns have lacked for so long and live up to his status as the No. 1 overall pick. We know Sam Darnold, who the New York Jets took at No. 3, will attempt to do the same.

We know Saquon Barkley was the first non-quarterback selected after the New York Giants made him the highest-drafted tailback in over a decade. And we know Denzel Ward was the first defender chosen when he joined Mayfield on the shores of Lake Erie.

Will Mayfield or Darnold lead all rookie signal-callers in passing yards? Can another young running back sail past Barkley to lead first-year players in rushing yards? Which wide receiver will have the biggest debut season? Who will be the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2018?

Bleacher Report's NFL writers have gathered to answer those questions and more.

Our Panel

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Before we get down to it, let's take a look at the NFL writers at B/R who participated in this piece.             

Gary Davenport, NFL Analyst

Tyler Dunne, NFL Features Lead Writer

Doug Farrar, NFL Lead Scout

Mike Freeman, NFL National Lead Writer

Brad Gagnon, NFL Analyst

Matt Miller, NFL Draft Lead Writer

Dan Pompei, NFL National Lead Writer

Brent Sobleski, NFL Analyst

Mike Tanier, NFL National Lead Writer

Most Passing Yards: Sam Darnold, New York Jets (4 Votes)

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

We might as well start off with the position that dominated the conversation leading up to the draft.

The most surprising thing about our panel's vote for who will get the most passing yards as a rookie may be the youngster who didn't get a vote. Despite AJ McCarron being the only person standing between Josh Allen and starts in Buffalo, the seventh overall pick was shut out.

Two voters, including NFL National Lead Writer Dan Pompei, predicted the oft-injured Sam Bradford will give way early enough for Josh Rosen of the Arizona Cardinals to lead all first-year quarterbacks in passing yards.

"Sam Bradford's history says Rosen will get a chance to play," Pompei said. "And scouts I spoke with thought he was the best pure passer in the draft."

Three more votes went to Mayfield, but the player drafted two picks later ultimately won the day.

Josh McCown has an injury history as long as Bradford's, and we haven't seen Teddy Bridgewater play more than a few snaps since the 2015 playoffs. That could open the door for Darnold to see the field sooner rather than later for the Jets, who have been searching for a franchise quarterback for years.

They can only hope the USC star is ready for the Big Apple pressure-cooker.

Others receiving votes: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (3 votes); Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals (2 votes)

Most Rushing Yards: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (6 Votes)

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

This vote wasn't unanimous, but it also wasn't nearly as spread out as most of the categories featured here. Bleacher Report's NFL writers believe the battle to lead all rookies in rushing yards is a two-horse race.

Three of our scribes, including NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski, think the title will go to Derrius Guice, the bruising 5'11", 218-pounder who the Washington Redskins selected toward the end of Round 2.

"A few factors play into Guice's favor," Sobleski said. "First, he's the most physical runner in this year's class. Second, Jay Gruden's pass game features a strong play-action influence, which means the coach needs to establish the run. Third, neither Samaje Perine nor Rob Kelley lived up to expectations last season, so they shouldn't provide much resistance to Guice starting. Finally, Washington's offensive line is among the league's most talented, with Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff and Morgan Moses."

However, the second overall pick in this year's draft received the most votes.

Barkley, who was drafted higher than any back since Reggie Bush went at No. 2 in 2006, is an electrifying talent who combines everything a team could want in a tailback. Speed, power, elusiveness—Barkley appears to have it all.

There's plenty of pressure on Barkley to live up to that lofty draft slot, but the voters here think he's up to that challenge.

And as we'll see later, they aren't close to finished with Barkley yet.

Others receiving votes: Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins (3 votes)

Most Receiving Yards: D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers (3 Votes)

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So much for agreement.

It's clear why the votes for most receiving yards were all over the place. This wasn't regarded as an especially strong receiver class, and there wasn't a consensus as to who the top prospect at the position was.

Two panelists, including NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier, threw their votes behind Christian Kirk, who the Arizona Cardinals snagged in the second round.

"I like to joke about Sam Bradford getting hurt in the preseason and disappearing for the rest of the year, but let's be real: Bradford is likely to start half a season before getting hurt and disappearing forever," Tanier wrote. "No veteran quarterback in the league checks down to his safety-valve receiver as regularly—or gets as much credit for it—as Bradford. Kirk will be catching shallow drag routes on 3rd-and-long while other rookie receivers are still getting lectured in practice about the route tree! When Josh Rosen eventually replaces Bradford, he will be looking for safe completions as well. Kirk might not have the biggest impact of the rookie receivers, but he'll have the most opportunities."

However, the pass-catcher who (somewhat surprisingly) went off the board first received the most votes from our experts.

There's no guarantee that D.J. Moore is the most talented wide receiver in this year's class. He isn't the most NFL-ready of the bunch, either—that would be Calvin Ridley of the Atlanta Falcons.

But what the 5'11", 215-pound Moore does have going for him is a Panthers depth chart at the position that's less than imposing. Outside of Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey, Carolina is sorely lacking in dependable pass-catchers, which opens the door for Moore to carve out a significant role in his first season.

Others receiving votes: Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (2 votes); Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (2 votes); D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 vote); James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote)

Most Tackles: Roquan Smith, LB, Chicago Bears (9 Votes)

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Any time you can get nine sportswriters to agree on something, it's cause for celebration.

Or perhaps it's time to fear that the apocalypse is nigh.

Either way, that's the case with linebacker Roquan Smith, who was a unanimous call to set the bar for rookies in total tackles.

As Bleacher Report NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon pointed out, the Chicago Bears were more than a little excited when Smith fell into their laps with the eighth overall pick.

"Dan Wiederer and Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune reported that after drafting Smith eighth overall on Thursday, Bears general manager Ryan Pace used the phrase 'fired up' five times," Gagnon noted. "They have the room and motivation to play him right away, and the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year led the best conference in college football with 137 tackles as a junior at Georgia."

It's something of a perfect storm. The 6'1", 225-pound Smith is a versatile and athletic prospect with a skill set suited for playing all three downs in the NFL. And with veteran Jerrell Freeman having announced his retirement Wednesday, Smith figures to join Danny Trevathan in the starting lineup from day one.

A few players might challenge Smith for the most rookie stops, such as Rashaan Evans of the Tennessee Titans and Tremaine Edmunds of the Buffalo Bills.

But Smith is as big of a favorite as any youngster in this piece—maybe more so.

Most Sacks: Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Denver Broncos (4 Votes)

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Some first-year players face a steeper learning curve at the NFL level than others, especially edge-rushers. Many got by on just strength and/or athleticism in college, but they'll need proper technique in the NFL, too.

And technique can take time.

Given that, and the wildly varying situations young pass-rushers land in, it's no surprise that there's a disparity of opinion among our panelists on who will lead all rookies in sacks.

For NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier, it was third-round pick Lorenzo Carter of the New York Giants.

"When selecting the rookie who will register the most sacks, don't necessarily look for the best rookie pass-rusher," Tanier said. "Look instead for the rookie pass-rusher in the best situation. Carter will start immediately for the Giants opposite Olivier Vernon, and Snacks Harrison will be blowing up the middles of pockets. The Giants face a last-place schedule—the Bears and 49ers, while better than last year, should still be good for some sacks—and the AFC South, which remains a reliable source of quarterback crises until proven otherwise. It all adds up to extra sack opportunities for Carter when Vernon and Snacks chase quarterbacks into him."

Fellow NFL National Lead Writer Matt Miller, on the other hand, selected Tennessee Titans outside linebacker Harold Landry.

"The Tennessee Titans will be aggressive on defense under head coach Mike Vrabel, and he wants to attack off the edge with speed like Harold Landry can provide," Miller wrote. "Landry's bend and burst are special enough to put him into double-digit sack range. He might get started as a sub-package rusher, but the nation's best pass-rusher from the 2016 season just needs to stay healthy in order to look like a steal from this class and a potential sack leader."

However, four writers bucked Tanier's advice. Bradley Chubb, this year's fifth overall pick, is widely regarded as the top pass-rusher in the class of 2018. Per Danny Kelly of The Ringer, some draftniks believe Chubb is better than Myles Garrett, who went first overall a year ago.

If he's close to as good as Garrett, Chubb could make some real waves as a rookie playing opposite the great Von Miller in Denver.

Others receiving votes: Harold Landry, OLB, Tennessee Titans (3 votes); Lorenzo Carter, EDGE, New York Giants (1 vote); Marcus Davenport, DE, New Orleans Saints (1 vote)

Most Interceptions: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Miami Dolphins (3 Votes)

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This is yet another category where our voters had a wide disparity of opinions. And with one exception, none of our experts believe that the first defensive back drafted, Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward, will pace all first-year players in picks.

Two voters, including NFL Lead Scout Doug Farrar, believe Josh Jackson will keep up his ball-hawking ways after falling to the Green Bay Packers in Round 2.

"I'm not picking Josh Jackson to lead the 2018 rookie class in interceptions because he led the NCAA in picks with eight in 2017, though that certainly helps," Farrar said. "College production doesn't always transfer to the NFL, but skill sets can, and Jackson's combination of size, ball skills, speed to trail to the deepest parts of the field and intelligent aggression will make him a problem for every pro receiver he syncs up with."

However, the DB who won this vote was drafted much earlier—11th overall, to be specific.

The Miami Dolphins took Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick that high largely because he isn't just a safety. The 6'1", 202-pounder is capable of playing all over the defense, whether it's at safety, slot corner or even as a sub-package linebacker.

Three of our writers expect that versatility (and Fitzpatrick's considerable talents) to lead to a big rookie impact that includes leading the class in interceptions in 2018.

Others receiving votes: Josh Jackson, CB, Green Bay Packers (2 votes); Denzel Ward, CB, Cleveland Browns (1 vote); Justin Reid, S, Houston Texans (1 vote); Kyzir White, S, Los Angeles Chargers (1 vote); Mike Hughes, CB, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote)

Biggest Flop: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (4 Votes)

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There are no winners in this category.

No NFL team wants to consider that one of its young prospects will fall flat in his first professional season. However, rookie struggles aren't necessarily the kiss of death.

Many edge-rushers and defensive backs take time to get their sea legs at the professional level. Quarterback Jared Goff looked lost with the Los Angeles Rams two years ago. In his second season, the light bulb appeared to come on for Goff, and he was a far better player.

If NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon is correct, fans of the Buffalo Bills will be hoping for a similar sophomore surge from seventh overall pick Josh Allen in 2019.

"It's a shame the Bills didn't immediately rule out Allen as a potential 2018 starter, because he simply isn't ready after completing 56 percent of his passes in the Mountain West Conference," Gagnon said. "In addition to being extremely raw, Allen lacks accuracy and makes poor decisions. He needs to redshirt, but even that would disappoint Bills fans who are starving for success."

Allen has a cannon for a right arm, and he certainly looks the part of an NFL passer. But in addition to his accuracy issues, Allen's new team isn't exactly loaded with skill-position talent or on the offensive line.

It has the makings of an uphill battle.

Others receiving votes: Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns (2 votes); Denzel Ward, CB, Cleveland Browns (1 vote); Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Denver Broncos (1 vote); Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Surprise Star: Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears (2 Votes)

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It's no surprise that this category had the widest variance of opinions. After all, to be a surprise star, a player has to be a surprise.

These are diamonds in the rough. Some digging was involved. And the NFL writers here at Bleacher Report dug in a number of different directions.

NFL Lead Scout Doug Farrar went the tailback route with Ronald Jones of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who should have the opportunity for plenty of touches as a rookie.

NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman also went the RB route. But Freeman dug deeper still, right past David Johnson in Arizona to his new understudy in Chase Edmonds.

In fact, eight different players got at least one vote. Only one received more, with NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski casting one of the two votes for Chicago Bears wide receiver Anthony Miller.

"Some athletes are built to overcome," Sobleski wrote. "Anthony Miller is one of those individuals, and he couldn't have landed in a better situation. Miller walked onto the Memphis Tigers before setting multiple school records. The 5'11", 190-pounder will likely begin his career in the slot, and he's expected to contribute immediately due to his slick route running, explosiveness off his stem and ability to create separation. With Allen Robinson drawing most of an opponent's attention, Miller and Taylor Gabriel have a chance to exploit numerous mismatches over the middle and down the seam."

If Mitchell Trubisky is going to make a big second-year leap, he's going to need help. That's where pass-catchers like Miller come in.

Others receiving votes: Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote); Chase Edmonds, RB, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote); Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers (1 vote); Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1 vote); Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos (1 vote); James Washington, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote); Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (8 Votes)

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

In the NFL, it's all about the quarterback position. But among players who do not play that position, no one received the sort of predraft run that Barkley did.

More than a few pundits believed the Browns should have drafted Barkley first overall this year, not Mayfield.

As it stood, Barkley didn't have to wait much longer to hear his name called. The Giants picked him at No. 2, apparently signaling their belief that Barkley can help get them back in playoff contention ASAP.

Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman is inclined to agree.

"There were few situations better for Barkley than the Giants," he said. "He gets to play with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback and one of the top three receivers in the sport. The line needs work, sure, but Barkley is the kind of player who makes lines, and everyone else around him, look good."

Freeman is spot-on with this assessment. Given how highly he was drafted, Barkley will be under the spotlight in 2018. But in Cleveland or Indianapolis, he would have been expected to carry the offense. 

In New York, meanwhile, he'll be tasked with giving the Giants a ground game Eli Manning and Odell Beckham can feed off of.

To say he's the heavy favorite to bring home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors is an understatement.

Others receiving votes: Josh Rosen, QB, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Denver Broncos (3 Votes)

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

All that agreement we had with the OROY pick? Yeah, that's gone. We're back to being Congress.

Six players in total received votes for Defensive Rookie of the Year. NFL Analyst (and beleaguered Browns fan) Gary Davenport clung to hope like Jack Dawson at the end of Titanic, tabbing Denzel Ward to make it two straight years that an Ohio State cornerback has brought home the award after Marshon Lattimore did so with the New Orleans Saints in 2017.

Minkah Fitzpatrick (who won the vote for most interceptions) received a vote. Roquan Smith (the runaway pick to have the most tackles among rookies) got two.

But it was Bradley Chubb (the winner for most sacks) who brought home the fictional hardware here, nabbing three votes—including one from NFL Features Lead Writer Tyler Dunne.

"With Von Miller on the other side," Dunne said, "offenses will likely have no choice but to single up Bradley Chubb, and that's going to be a nightmare proposition. Chubb is a long, strong, athletic, younger version of DeMarcus Ware who instantly changes Denver's entire defense. Drafting a quarterback might've kickstarted a rebuild for John Elway. Instead, he'll have playoffs on the mind again."

It's hard to argue that playing opposite Miller, Chubb will get a jump-start of sorts that many edge-rushers do not. Opponents will have much bigger things to worry about than the rookie.

And if Chubb truly is the top-five talent his draft slot indicates, he should regularly be able to make teams pay for not focusing more attention on him.

Others receiving votes: Roquan Smith, LB, Chicago Bears (2 votes); Denzel Ward, CB, Cleveland Browns (1 vote); Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Miami Dolphins (1 vote); Rashaan Evans, LB, Tennessee Titans (1 vote); Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers (1 vote)

Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (9 Votes)

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There was plenty of difference of opinion on defense with regard to Rookie of the Year. There was next to none on offense.

There's less than next to none when it came to determining the No. 1 rookie overall in 2018.

For every voter on our panel, including NFL National Lead Writer Matt Miller, Barkley was an obvious call.

"This might seem like a boring or obvious pick," Miller said, "but Saquon Barkley should be the favorite to win every rookie award he's eligible for. Not only is Barkley an elite, rare talent, but he's going to a New York Giants offense that is tailor-made for his skill set. He'll also see plenty of unstacked boxes with Odell Beckham, Jr. and Co. taking safeties deep and keeping linebackers off the field."

Barkley dominated one of the best conferences in college football while he was at Penn State. He was the unquestioned star of the scouting combine, where his interview sessions blew teams away almost as much as his fantastic showing in workouts and drills.

Barkley now gets to kick off his NFL career on a team with a Pro Bowl quarterback, an improved offensive line and one of the league's most dominant wide receivers.

The dominos are aligned for Barkley. All he has to do is knock them over.