Latest Stock Watch for 2018 NFL Draft's Most Polarizing Prospects
If there's one thing that draftniks can agree on, it's that there isn't much that draftniks can agree on.
It's a staple of the predraft process—players about whom opinions are all over the place.
Maybe it's because a quarterback who to some is an undersized troublemaker is to others a highly accurate proven winner. Or it's because a wildly talented and athletic edge-rusher played against lesser competition or has an extensive injury history. Or because a massive offensive lineman looks like a world-beater on film but was a major disappointment in workouts.
Or maybe it's just because pundits like to argue, and this time of year features more smokescreens than a Michael Bay movie.
Whatever the reason, one week before the 2018 NFL draft there's no shortage of prospects who have supporters and detractors in nearly equal measure. Some appear to be tracking up draft boards. Others are sliding down.
Here's a look at who is headed in which direction.
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
1 of 10
The biggest burning question one week out from the start of the NFL draft is the same as one month out. And two months out.
Whose name will be called when Roger Goodell steps to the podium to announce Cleveland's selection at No. 1?
As Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot reported, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com is hearing the same buzz many in the draft community are—that first overall pick is going to be Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.
"Just in talking to people around the league for the last, I would say it really picked up in the last week, it's just a lot of people, not from inside the [Browns'] building—I'll stress that—but there's just a lot of people telling me, 'Hey, I think it's going to be Josh Allen,'" he said. "It's either guys that have worked with John Dorsey or guys that are familiar with that room and that process."
For every supporter of Allen who points to his prototypical build (6'5", 233 lbs) and cannon of a right arm, there is a detractor who points to tape of missed receivers and Allen's career 56.2 completion percentage.
At this point, it doesn't matter what either of those camps think. All that matters is whether John Dorsey and the Browns believe Allen can be the franchise quarterback that has eluded Cleveland for so long.
Right now, the tea leaves indicate that they do.
STOCK UP
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
2 of 10
Unlike the other prospects on this list, Penn State tailback Saquon Barkley is universally considered the No. 1 player at his position.
As a matter of fact, after Barkley posted a phenomenal workout at February's scouting combine, there were rumblings that Barkley could be the first running back in over two decades to be selected first overall.
That's the thing, though. Some pundits, like Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, believe the hype has gotten out of hand. That Barkley fever has blinded some.
"I like his game, but based on the predraft evaluations you'd think he was going to run for 1,800 yards and catch 70 passes every season," Prisco wrote. "That's not happening. There are also a lot of good runners in this draft class who I think will have similar careers."
It would appear Prisco's colleague Will Brinson agrees. In his latest mock draft, Brinson had Barkley sliding out of the top 10 altogether.
That's unlikely. But Barkley's ironclad grip on his status as a top-five pick appears to have loosened. In a deep class at a position that's been devalued somewhat in recent drafts, there's a growing sense that Barkley could drop quite a bit further than originally expected.
That's not going to do his checking account any favors, but it might wind up being a gift for the team that sees Barkley fall into its lap.
STOCK DOWN
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
3 of 10
Like it's possible to talk polarizing prospects in this year's draft and not bring up Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield.
Much has been written about Mayfield's height (or lack of it) and maturity issues. But of late, another aspect of Mayfield's game has gotten more run.
Mayfield can play.
Per Cabot, ESPN draft analyst (and former personnel executive) Louis Riddick went so far as to say that were he drafting for Cleveland at No. 1, the 6'1" Mayfield would be the guy.
"Baker Mayfield is my favorite because he's an 11-on-11 gamer," Riddick said. "That's what he is. And it's not going to be a problem for him from the mental standpoint. From everything I've been told, he'll be able to handle all of that."
Now, Mayfield is all but certainly not coming off the board at No. 1. But more mock drafts of late, including the latest from Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, are featuring Mayfield coming off the board ahead of either UCLA's Josh Rosen or USC's Sam Darnold—or both.
That wasn't the case early in the predraft process, when Mayfield was often ranked fourth at the position in this year's class.
STOCK UP
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Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA
4 of 10
Back in January, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com published his first mock draft of 2018. In it, UTSA edge-rusher Marcus Davenport was the seventh overall pick. At the time, it wasn't at all unusual to see Davenport coming off the board in the top 10.
In Jeremiah's most recent mock, Davenport slid to the Green Bay Packers at No. 14. Other recent mocks have Davenport dropping even further.
So what's changed?
In reality, nothing.
There are still many, including Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier, who think the 6'6", 264-pounder is one of this year's top sack-artists.
"Davenport's athleticism is close to unparalleled," Tanier said. "His production is eye-popping. His character is, if anything, a little too exemplary.
"The only thing that's left for the NFL to figure out is that there is nothing to figure out. Sometimes, outstanding prospects slip through the cracks, especially ones who bloom a little late and go out of their way to avoid attention."
But with all that talent and athleticism come questions. Davenport remains raw and unrefined as a pass-rusher. And while he was a man among boys in college and at the Senior Bowl, Davenport's about to experience a seismic jump in level of competition.
Davenport is a gamble, and there are safer plays and surer bets to be had at other positions than the small-school star.
That gamble is what's causing his perceived mini-slide.
STOCK DOWN
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
5 of 10
The NFL draft is no different from the league itself.
It's a quarterback's world. The rest of us are just living in it.
At least we've fully and finally established that Louisville's Lamar Jackson is a quarterback. The nonsense about the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner's playing wide receiver in the NFL has been put to rest.
And as teams watch more and more film of Jackson making plays for the Cardinals the past two years, it appears something is being figured out.
Jackson can do things with a football in his hands that few people can.
This isn't to say that Jackson doesn't have detractors. He's easily the most raw of this year's top quarterbacks. He's played exclusively in a shotgun spread offense and at times struggled to read defenses and make the sort of accurate intermediate throws that NFL quarterbacks have to make.
But as Lance Zierlein reported for NFL.com, Jackson's upside is equally undeniable.
"The word "elite" is thrown around quite haphazardly these days," Zierlein said, "but it's an apt description of Jackson's athletic ability. Not since Michael Vick have we seen a quarterback with Jackson's level of athletic ability and playmaking potential...and Vick went No. 1 overall in the draft!"
Jackson won't be the first quarterback drafted. He may not be the third.
But as we get closer to the big day, the odds of Jackson being one of the first 32 picks are increasing.
STOCK UP
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
6 of 10
The class of wide receivers in 2018 isn't great. For most of the run-up to the 2018 draft, the belief has been that Alabama's Calvin Ridley is the best of the lot.
And yet, whereas last year the first wideout came off the board at No. 5, Ridley will likely last well into the teens—if he's the first pass-catcher drafted at all.
Ridley is the most polished route-runner of this year's high-end receivers. That's not up for debate. Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller wrote that skill is highly valued by teams around the league.
"They look at Ridley," Miller said, "and see a silky-smooth route-runner with plus speed and hands who can be a part of a dynamic passing attack on Day 1 in the NFL."
But Ridley is also not especially big—just a hair over 6'0". His testing at the combine did nothing to allay concerns about that lack of size. And Ridley will be 24 in December—old by rookie standards.
Per Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks of NFL.com, there's increasing buzz surrounding SMU wideout Courtland Sutton—enough that it's possible Sutton could sneak past Ridley to claim the title of first receiver chosen on April 26.
Just the possibility that might happen is at least a slight hit to Ridley's stock.
STOCK DOWN
Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
7 of 10
In many ways, Sutton is the flip side of the Ridley debate. Ceiling vs. floor. Potential vs polish.
Where Ridley is all about route running and quickness, at 6'3" and 218 pounds Sutton uses his big frame and strength to get open. Add in soft hands, and you have a player who appears tailor-made to do damage in the red zone.
However, Sutton isn't as fast as Ridley, having checked in a full tenth of a second slower in the 40-yard dash in Indianapolis at 4.54 seconds. He's not nearly as quick in and out of breaks or as refined in his routes as Ridley is.
That he's getting more buzz as a potential first-round pick, per Jeremiah and Brooks, and challenging Ridley's WR1 status at all is one of the more interesting and baffling parts of this annual ritual.
Some of it may be smoke. It would hardly be unprecedented for an NFL team to talk up a player it doesn't like as much as it lets on. Spook another club into reaching or put it off the scent of another prospect.
It could also be that teams are talking themselves into the pick. That Sutton's ceiling becomes more appealing by the day.
Whatever the reason, Sutton is trending in the right direction.
STOCK UP
Arden Key, EDGE, LSU
8 of 10
Three years from now, it's possible we'll be calling LSU edge-rusher Arden Key one of the biggest steals of the NFL draft.
It's equally possible the 6'6", 238-pounder will be written off as a wasted Day 2 pick.
A year ago at this time, Key was viewed as a potential top-15 prospect. He was fresh off a 12-sack season and looked like one of the top pass-rushers in the class.
Then came a massively disappointing 2017 season that included time away from the team for personal reasons, weight gain and injuries.
To his credit, Key has talked to teams about his absence. ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler wrote that Key "has been honest during the interview process, telling teams he's been sober for more than a year."
Key is immensely physically talented. We've seen what he's capable of when he's on his game. But dating back over a year, it's been one thing after another. That the reason for Key’s absence from the team last year still remains unexplained doesn’t help matters. Neither did a sluggish 4.85-second 40-yard dash at LSU's pro day after passing on running in Indy.
Key still has supporters, both among NFL front offices and in the draft community. At some point (probably on April 27) someone is going to roll the dice on Key's upside.
Unfortunately for him, the threshold where the reward is worth the risk keeps dropping.
STOCK DOWN
Josh Sweat, EDGE, Florida State
9 of 10
Josh Sweat has already come a long way in his quest to play in the NFL. As Bleacher Report's Tyler Dunne reported recently, the 6'4", 251-pound edge-rusher suffered a knee injury in high school that was so gruesome that it was feared Sweat would lose his leg.
Sweat didn't lose the leg, and he went on to have a fine career at Florida State, logging 12.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks for the Seminoles in 2017. But the severity of that injury (Sweat tore his ACL, MCL, PCL and dislocated the kneecap) coupled with an additional meniscus injury in 2016 have earned Sweat a medical red-flag from some scouts.
However, as CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora pointed out, there are also those who think Sweat is a high-potential prospect worthy of an early pick—maybe even a first-rounder.
"He has the best first step in this draft for me," said one evaluator. "I'd put Chubb ahead of him and [Marcus] Davenport, but Sweat is the third-best pass-rusher in this draft. And he's got all the numbers you look for, too—height, weight, speed, all of it. Those guys don't last long on draft day."
Sweat may still be something of a long shot to be picked on April 26. But after peeling off a 4.53-second 40-yard dash (third among edge-rushers) at the combine, the youngster has draftniks discussing more than just the condition of his knee.
STOCK UP
Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
10 of 10
Back in February, Mike Mayock of NFL Network ranked Oklahoma's Orlando Brown as the No. 2 offensive tackle in the class of 2018. The massive 6'8", 345-pounder was widely regarded as a first-round pick.
Then came Brown's nightmarish combine. The 14 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press. The woeful 5.85-second 40 and two-second 10-yard split.
Now, Brown might not even go on Day 2.
Proponents of the "tape don't lie" philosophy have a point where Brown's concerned. If you believe the tape from Oklahoma demonstrated first-round talent from the son of "Zeus," then even that abysmal showing at Lucas Oil Stadium shouldn't drop him more than a round or so.
The problem, as ESPN's Mike Sando reported via colleague Jake Trotter, is that some in the scouting community weren't all that impressed with Brown's tape to begin with.
"There was hype because of his name," one NFL personnel evaluator said. "Some guys had high grades on him [before the combine]. For them, the workout might have dropped him from the first round to the fourth. I never liked his tape and saw him as a third- or fourth-round guy anyway, so for me, maybe you drop him a round after the combine."
Given Brown's size and his tape, he probably won't last past that second day. It's not a great class at tackle—a position coveted by just about every team every year.
But when it comes to draft stock, you'll be hard-pressed to find a player who put a bigger dent in his than Brown in 2018.
STOCK DOWN
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