Is Baker Mayfield Worthy of a Top-3 Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft?

We're at the point in the relentless march to the NFL draft when both the obvious and ludicrous seem possible—at the same time.

But there are still instances when there's enough momentum behind a name, and a draft slot, that a new prevailing thought emerges. Since the calendar flipped to April, that name has been Baker Mayfield. And the emerging idea is that he deserves to be a top-three pick.

That hasn't been said directly, but it takes preschool-level dot connecting to get there.

Increasingly, the New York Jets have been connected to Mayfield at the No. 3 slot. Chatter tied to them accelerated when Tony Pauline of Draft Analyst reported there are "a good number of league insiders" who think the Jets will use the third overall pick on Mayfield.

That's the same third overall pick the Jets were aggressive in pursuing, making their quarterback intentions well known. The Jets moved from sixth to third while sending the Indianapolis Colts two second-round picks in 2018 and another second-round pick in 2019.

Then the Mayfield-to-the-Jets buzz hit another gear when NFL Network's Ian Rapoport noted there's "a lot of love inside the Jets' building" for him.

Finally, Robert Klemko of Sports Illustrated dumped a few gallons of fuel on the fire by saying if he were the wagering type, he'd put money on Mayfield becoming a Jet. Klemko has been working through an excellent series documenting Mayfield's play at Oklahoma and his predraft process. Which is why his prediction carries that much more weight.

But forget about the Jets specifically and focus instead on the larger implication of those reports. Multiple well-connected reporters have pegged Mayfield as a potential top-three pick, which means the league's thinking is likely headed in that direction.

It also leads to an even more significant development. If the New York Giants look elsewhere at No. 2 and don't select a quarterback, opting for running back Saquon Barkley or defensive end Bradley Chubb instead, Mayfield could be the second passer off the board.

The Jets could pull that trigger, or it might be another quarterback-desperate team who trades up to No. 2. Regardless, the already-high expectations for Mayfield would spike upward.

At first that might feel a little terrifying when we're talking about a quarterback who defies convention and has thrived on shattering molds at the position while standing only 6'1". But that feeling begins to wear off with every nugget of advanced analysis and every impressive throw from Mayfield's 2017 game film.

Let's start with the latter while assessing whether Mayfield should join Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, who were all selected with top-three picks in the last three drafts.

Mayfield is nimble with his feet, and that allows him to evade pressure and create plays even when all seems lost. He ran for 1,083 yards and 21 touchdowns in college.

But what's most impressive about his athleticism is how he combines it with patience, vision and the ability to progress through reads at a pro level.

He's not frantic in the way other mobile quarterbacks can be when their feet get jittery and they feel the urge to flee from even the slightest bit of pressure. His head is always up and scanning, and this touchdown pass against Ohio State is a fine example:

In the compact quarters of the red zone, Mayfield was aware he didn't have much time in the pocket and had barely any space to fit a throw downfield.

The situation called for the right balance between patience and urgency, and Mayfield found the sweet spot. He started scanning the field to his right, first looking at a sideline route with two defenders in the area. That wasn't a safe spot for the ball, and neither was his second read, a slant up the middle with heavy traffic.

Then, with his internal clock ticking, Mayfield knew where his third outlet would be and wiggled free from pressure to find that receiver for a touchdown.

His Heisman Trophy-winning season is dotted with similar plays. But those alone don't shake a common concern: that Mayfield benefited from Oklahoma's spread offense's opening up easy throwing lanes.

But it is possible for two observations to be true at the same time.

We can acknowledge the difficulty level on some of Mayfield's throws was indeed lower because of the offense run by the Sooners. He still had to execute with accuracy, though, and did so while completing 70.5 percent of his pass attempts at an average of 11.5 yards per throw in 2017.

Then we can also gawk at laser-beamed throws Mayfield completed to impossibly tight areas and conclude that, yes, he'll be just fine when the throwing windows shrink in the NFL. Throws like this one, via Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzolo:

It's worth pressing pause (at the 11-second mark) on that video to show just how tiny Mayfield's target area was downfield.

He had to get enough loft on the ball to clear one defender and still zip it in quickly before another defensive back closed in. That meant placing the ball high in a specific area where only his receiver had access in the cramped space ahead of the back of the end zone.

He checked off all those boxes on this throw, which was one of his 43 touchdown passes during his senior season.

The term "NFL throw" is tossed around plenty throughout the months of March and April, and it can feel frustratingly vague. But the next time you hear it, picture a pinpoint heave like that one, the kind of throw only a handful of quarterbacks on this planet can complete repeatedly with confidence.

Or go ahead and picture a completion deep downfield, an area where the degree of difficulty also naturally increases no matter what type of offense a quarterback runs. As PFF's Pat Thorman observed, Mayfield finished second in 2017 among the 44 draft-eligible quarterbacks with a passer rating of 127.9 on deep balls (throws traveling 20-plus yards through the air).

That passer rating put him far ahead of Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen, all of whom are also jostling for position at the top of the draft. The Cleveland Browns' decision at No. 1 will likely be between one of those three. Bleacher Report draft analyst Matt Miller gave Darnold to the Browns in his most recent mock, and half of the mock drafters at CBSSports.com are in agreement.

From there it feels safe assuming at least one more quarterback will be selected in the top three—and possibly even two.

We can quibble over which order the quarterbacks should come off the board in a draft with equal amounts of promise and questions at the position. And we can try to guess which team might try to leapfrog over the Jets in their pursuit of an answer under center (Buffalo Bills? Miami Dolphins? Denver Broncos?).

Those are the conversations that make draft season addicting and engaging, as does the one about Mayfield's draft value and whether he's worth a top-three pick. The problem with that question? The answer is becoming obvious.

Yes, he has the talent to be a top-three pick.