All 30 MLB Teams' Biggest 2018 X-Factors
What makes a player an X-factor? There's no hard-and-fast definition; it's a "know it when we see it" situation.
For our purposes, we'll define it as an enigmatic or injury-prone individual with the potential to take a leap forward; a fading veteran who could provide a late-career surge and/or value as a trade chip; or a talent-laden prospect with a path to playing time. Superstars and steady role players need not apply.
In all cases, high-ceiling outputs by these 30 guys—one per team—would give a significant boost to their respective clubs.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: C Chance Sisco
When top Baltimore Orioles catching prospect Chance Sisco made the Opening Day roster, it was unclear how he'd share duties with established backstop Caleb Joseph.
So far, Sisco has made seven starts behind the dish and hit .267 with three doubles in 13 games. Joseph, meanwhile, is hitting .088. It may not be long before Sisco assumes a full-time role.
"He's handled it well," manager Buck Showalter said of Sisco, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. "He's only going to get better and better."
Boston Red Sox: 1B/DH Hanley Ramirez
Last season, Hanley Ramirez hit .242 and appeared to be on the downslope of his career, if not the exit ramp. So far in 2018, he's roaring back.
Through 14 games, Ramirez is hitting .327 with a .922 OPS. There's time for injuries and backsliding in the heat of summer and beyond. But if Ramirez regains the stroke that made him a three-time top-10 MVP finisher from 2007 to 2013, it would be a massive boon for the Boston Red Sox as they seek to retain supremacy in the American League East.
New York Yankees: INF Gleyber Torres
Top New York Yankees prospect Gleyber Torres hit .219 in the Grapefruit League and was sent to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. At that level, he's gone 15-for-41 and logged innings at second base, third base and shortstop.
It won't be long before he's plying his trade in the Bronx, where he could become a super-utility player and join the Yanks' cast of burgeoning stars.
New York won't rush the 21-year-old Torres, who underwent Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow last year, but it can't hold him back for long.
Tampa Bay Rays: OF Mallex Smith
Is Mallex Smith for real?
The 24-year-old Tampa Bay Rays outfielder wasn't on many radars coming into the season. A fifth-round pick by the San Diego Padres in 2012, Smith didn't top any lists of players most likely to rake in 2018.
So far, he's doing so to the tune of a .383 average and .942 OPS.
His .439 batting average on balls in play suggests his numbers are destined to trend downward. Even if he comes back to earth, however, he could be a fine bit of found money for the small-market Rays.
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Teoscar Hernandez
In 13 at-bats since a call-up from Triple-A Buffalo, Teoscar Hernandez has doubled three times—including once against Cleveland Indians left-hander Andrew Miller—and made a strong case for more playing time with the Toronto Blue Jays.
The 25-year-old posted a .908 OPS in 26 games with the Jays last season and could muscle his way into a starting role with continued success, possibly supplanting veteran Curtis Granderson or at least establishing a platoon role (Granderson bats left-handed, Hernandez right).
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: RHP Michael Kopech
Top Chicago White Sox pitching prospect Michael Kopech and his triple-digit heater were sent to Triple-A after he posted an 11.57 ERA in the Cactus League.
In two starts with the Charlotte Knights, he's surrendered one earned run and fanned 11 over 10 innings. It's only a matter of time until he's singeing radar guns on the South Side.
The White Sox may give him time to hone his off-speed offerings, including a work-in-progress changeup. But he could be in Chicago this summer, trailing the hype that's followed him at every level.
Cleveland Indians: OF Michael Brantley
A two-time All-Star and top-three American League MVP finisher in 2014, Michael Brantley was an injury-plagued question mark for the past two seasons.
The Cleveland Indians outfielder underwent ankle surgery in October and came into spring with doubts hanging over him.
In seven games, he's gone 9-for-26 with two doubles and a homer. If the 30-year-old can return to form, it would greatly enhance a lineup that has outscored only the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals.
Detroit Tigers: 1B Miguel Cabrera
Miguel Cabrera had his worst MLB season in 2017, hitting .249 with a .399 slugging percentage. The 34-year-old is also signed for a minimum of $30 per season through at least 2023.
It might be an untradeable contract for the rebuilding Detroit Tigers. On the other hand, Cabrera is a future Hall of Famer and a bounce-back at his age isn't unheard of.
So far, he's hitting .235 with a .675 OPS. Those numbers won't entice anyone to surrender prospects or take on so much salary, both of which would benefit Detroit. If Cabrera starts to resemble his two-time AL MVP self, he could be dangled come the July non-waiver deadline.
Kansas City Royals: RHP Kelvin Herrera
Unlike Detroit, Kansas City hasn't initiated a full-blown rebuild. It's stuck somewhere between contending and revamping, though a 3-12 start hints at the latter.
If it's fallen out of contention by July, however, it may look to move pieces. If so, the most enticing chip is probably reliever Kelvin Herrera.
The two-time All-Star has done nothing but build his value in the early going with eight strikeouts in 4.2 scoreless innings. Don't be surprised if he changes uniforms—and buttresses the Royals farm—in the coming months.
Minnesota Twins: CF Byron Buxton
Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton shed the "Bust-on" jokes last season with 16 home runs, 29 steals and a Gold Glove. This is the year the 2012 second overall pick could make the leap from good to great.
So far, he's hitting .195 with two extra-base hits in 11 games. Small-sample caveats apply. There's no need to panic. But the Twins need Buxton to build on last season's breakout rather than regress if they want to contend for another postseason berth.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: OF Kyle Tucker
Outfielder Kyle Tucker torched his way through spring training with five home runs, 21 RBI and a .409 average. The Houston Astros' top position prospect looked ready for his debut.
Instead, the 'Stros sent him to Triple-A. It wasn't a bad move; the 21-year-old had never tasted that level. Still, a call-up seems likely.
In the early going, left fielders Derek Fisher (.143 average) and Marwin Gonzalez (.164) are scuffling. The defending champions won't make any rash moves, but Tucker is lurking as an intriguing option.
Los Angeles Angels: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani
Who could be more of an X-factor than a two-way star who came across the Pacific Ocean at the age of 23?
After a rough spring, Shohei Ohtani is delivering on the mound and in the batter's box for the Los Angeles Angels. The "Japanese Babe Ruth" has a 1.191 OPS and 3.60 ERA. "I think I just got better," Ohtani said through a translator, per Bleacher Report's Joon Lee.
Can he keep it up? A few doubts crept in as he lasted just two innings, gave up three earned runs and exited with because of a blister Tuesday against the Red Sox, per MLB.com's Avery Yang. But those doubts don't dampen the intrigue.
Oakland Athletics: 2B Jed Lowrie
Assuming the Oakland Athletics decide to sell at the trade deadline, which is often a safe assumption, they've got to love Jed Lowrie's hot start.
The veteran second baseman has shot out of the gate with a .351 average, five home runs and 18 RBI. He's not an X-factor in the sense of being unknown or inconsistent, but if the 34-year-old keeps hitting like an All-Star, he could net a strong return for the perpetually retooling A's.
Seattle Mariners: RHP Felix Hernandez
If the Seattle Mariners are going to be a factor in the American League West, they could use a royal return by right-hander Felix Hernandez, who has had injuries and declining results since 2016.
King Felix has shown flashes in the early going, pitching into the sixth inning or later in three of his four starts and striking out seven in his most recent outing Sunday against the A's.
On the negative side, he sports a 5.48 ERA, has given up five home runs in 21.1 innings, and his average fastball is at a career-low 90.3 mph.
There's good, and there's bad. Whether the good outweighs the bad will help determine whether the M's break their 16-year playoff drought.
Texas Rangers: RHP Tim Lincecum
When the Texas Rangers signed a beefed up Tim Lincecum to a one-year deal in February, they bought themselves a lottery ticket.
The two-time National League Cy Young Award winner hasn't been an effective major league pitcher since 2011. On the other hand, he's Tim Lincecum. At his apex, he featured one of the most exciting, unhittable arms in the game.
Lincecum is on the shelf until at least late May because of a blister, per Stefan Stevenson of the Star-Telegram. He may not even pitch, let alone pitch effectively, in 2018.
Still, at age 33, a comeback as a late-innings reliever is imaginable. Lincecum impressed scouts in a February showcase and reportedly touched 93 mph with his fastball.
He would provide a boost for the Rangers bullpen and be one heck of a fun story.
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
Top Atlanta Braves prospect Ronald Acuna Jr. hit .344 with a .940 OPS in 54 games at Triple-A in 2017 then hit .432 with four home runs in the Grapefruit League.
He was sent to Triple-A, seemingly to delay his service clock and give the Braves another year of team control. He's gone 7-for-40 with 15 strikeouts, which could further delay his MLB debut.
The 20-year-old will be in Atlanta at some point this season, however. His early MiLB slump doesn't erase his immense talent. The only question is whether he'll be the front-runner for National League Rookie of the Year honors.
Miami Marlins: CF Lewis Brinson
After gutting their roster this offseason and trading their 2017 starting outfield, the Miami Marlins handed the keys to center field to 23-year-old Lewis Brinson.
Acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade, Brinson is hitting just .131 in the early going for Miami.
On the other hand, he's a five-tool talent with the potential to ease the sting the Marlins' fire sale. No matter what, the Fish will give him every opportunity to succeed.
New York Mets: RHP Zack Wheeler
The New York Mets pitching staff was decimated by injuries in 2017. Not coincidentally, New York missed the postseason.
This year, the results have been better, with ace Noah Syndergaard leading the charge. The most intriguing X-factor in the bunch is Zack Wheeler.
Once viewed as a No. 1-in-waiting, Wheeler hasn't eclipsed 100 innings since 2014 and wobbled in spring training. In his first start after a call-up to replace the injured Jason Vargas, Wheeler struck out seven in seven innings against the Marlins while yielding two hits and one earned run.
He surrendered three earned runs on seven hits and three walks with two strikeouts Tuesday. Can the 27-year-old return to prominence for the streaking Mets? Stay tuned.
Philadelphia Phillies: 3B Maikel Franco
After teasing star potential in 2015, Maikel Franco put up less-than-stellar numbers in 2016 and 2017 for the Philadelphia Phillies.
He's hitting only .234 so far but has cracked two home runs and looked good in stretches with his new batting stance.
The Phils would love to get consistent production from the 25-year-old as they try to accelerate their rebuild, and while there's no guarantee, there are positive signs.
Washington Nationals: OF Adam Eaton
The Washington Nationals won the National League East last season without Adam Eaton, who missed all but 23 games to injury.
He's played eight this season and in that span hit .345 with a 1.079 OPS. He was bit again by the injury bug, this time to his ankle, though he's eligible to come off the disabled list Friday.
If he returns healthy and recommences raking, he'll vastly improve Washington's chances in what could be Bryce Harper's D.C. swan song.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: OF Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber broke out for the Chicago Cubs in 2015, clubbing 16 home runs in 69 games. Most of his 2016 season was wiped out by a knee injury. In 2017, he hit 30 homers but struggled at times and was briefly demoted to Triple-A.
Unlike young Cubs stars such as Kris Bryant, Schwarber is something of an enigma.
So far in 2018, six of his 10 hits have gone for extra bases (three homers and three doubles). He's also struck out 17 times in 14 games and is hitting .222. No one denies his ceiling as a hitter is sky-high. The question is if and when he'll reach it.
Cincinnati Reds: INF Nick Senzel
The second overall pick by the Cincinnati Reds in 2016, Nick Senzel posted a .905 OPS between High-A and Double-A in 2017. He was shipped to Triple-A Lousiville to begin this season but should arrive in Cincinnati well before September call-ups.
Third baseman Eugenio Suarez landed on the DL with a fractured thumb, but the Reds decision-makers aren't likely to tap Senzel just yet, per MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
"I think he could help us [now]," Reds manager Bryan Price said, per Jeff Wallner for WCPO. "There's also the argument that the people that see him on a regular basis and know him better than I do need to feel that he's ready."
Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Josh Hader
Josh Hader flashed bat-missing stuff as a rookie with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2017, fanning 68 in 47.2 innings out of the bullpen.
This season, he's besting himself with 25 punchouts in 11.2 frames for a ridiculous rate of 19.3 strikeouts per nine innings. That won't last, but the Brew Crew has quite a burgeoning weapon in its pen.
"I just go out there with the mentality of getting outs, and whether that's strikeouts or not, I've just got to do my job," Hader said, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Jameson Taillon
The Pittsburgh Pirates lost an ace when they traded Gerrit Cole to the Houston Astros this offseason. They may have gained one in Jameson Taillon.
After posting a 4.44 ERA in 25 uneven starts for the Bucs last season, Taillon owns an 0.89 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 20.1 innings over his first three starts, including a complete-game shutout.
The 26-year-old was the second overall pick by Pittsburgh in 2010 and appears to be cashing in on his promise.
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Jordan Hicks
Through 9.1 scintillating innings, St. Louis Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks has logged the highest average fastball velocity in baseball at 99.2 mph.
Talk all you want about small samples, and we're with you. Let's see this kid do it throughout the 162-game grind.
Still, there's no denying the promise and eye-popping power of the 21-year-old's cheddar-slinging right arm.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Brad Boxberger
The Arizona Diamondbacks let closer Fernando Rodney walk via free agency this winter and handed ninth-inning duties to right-hander Brad Boxberger.
So far, so good.
Boxberger is five for five in save opportunities and sports a sparkling 0.00 ERA. He's not new to closing; he saved 41 games for the Rays in 2015. It's always a roll of the dice to slide a setup man into the door-slamming role, however, but thus far its paying dividends for the Snakes.
Colorado Rockies: RHP Adam Ottavino
Last season, Adam Ottavino posted a 5.06 ERA in 53.1 innings out of the Colorado Rockies bullpen. So far in 2018, the 32-year-old right-hander owns a 0.84 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 10.2 frames. Oh, and he's issued one walk.
Is this a blip or a harbinger of a historic season?
FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan broke down some changes in Ottavino's delivery that could be contributing to his ludicrous success. He won't dominate like this all season, but he could be a leading contributor in the Rockies' deep, reshuffled pen.
Los Angeles Dodgers: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu
After coming over from South Korea and breaking in to the majors with a great season for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2013, Hyun-Jin Ryu's career has taken a turn toward injury-prone and underperforming. So far in 2018, the 31-year-old looks like he's back.
Ryu has fanned 19 in 15.2 innings and held opposing hitters to a .164 average. He doesn't need to front the Dodgers rotation; that's Clayton Kershaw's gig.
If he can keep being a credible No. 2 or even No. 3, however, it will go a long way toward helping L.A. win its first World Series since 1988.
San Diego Padres: LHP Joey Lucchesi
A fourth-round pick by the San Diego Padres in 2016, Joey Lucchesi has sprinted off the starting blocks for the Friars, posting a 1.66 ERA with 25 strikeouts and four walks in 21.2 innings.
Piggyback that on to his impressive spring, and you've got the makings of a frontline starter in San Diego. Lucchesi will inevitably struggle as hitters adjusts, but he plays for a team that will give him lots of chances to prove he's the real deal.
San Francisco Giants: RHP Chris Stratton
The San Francisco Giants lost ace Madison Bumgarner (finger) and innings-eater Jeff Samardzija (pectoral) before the season even began. The rotation was sketchy for a team that was hoping to contend after losing 98 games in 2017.
So far, Chris Stratton has stepped into the breach.
Through three starts, the 27-year-old owns a 2.60 ERA. His stuff doesn't dazzle, but he could be the rotation glue San Francisco is looking for as it plugs in various pieces and awaits the return of Mad-Bum and Shark.
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