2018 NFL Draft: What's the Concern Level for Draft's Most Notable Injuries?
The best injury for an NFL draft prospect is the one that can be forgotten and never spoken of again.
That's the kind of injury that doesn't derail development when a prospect knows his new NFL team. It also doesn't keep him from contributing immediately. And most importantly, it doesn't napalm his draft stock and cost the prospect money after plummeting a round or more.
Most of the injuries of note among the draft's top prospects fall under that category, and they can either be cast aside entirely or come with moderate concern at worst. That's true for defensive end Harold Landry after an ankle issue kept him out for much of 2017 and wide receiver Anthony Miller, who has recovered from a foot injury.
However, cornerback Nick Nelson might be headed for a draft spiral after unfortunate timing with his injury. And although defensive tackle Maurice Hurst has been cleared, there's always some uncertainty surrounding an irregular heartbeat.
Let's take a look at the most notable injuries with less than two weeks to go until the draft and assess the concern level.
Josh Rosen, Quarterback
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Prior to every draft, there's almost always a prospect who forces us to confront the most archaic league thinking. Quarterback Josh Rosen daring to be a well-rounded person and have interests outside of football (gasp!) has brought out the worst in bad takes by dinosaur football men.
That, though, has brushed aside a legitimately concerning issue in the modern NFL: concussions.
Rosen has suffered two of them before taking his first NFL snap, and they both came in 2017.
He's taken a lot of whacks over a short period of time. Ligaments and bones heal, but the long-term impact of repeated concussions at the age of just 21 leads to at least some cause for hesitation.
The difficulty with concussions is that, unlike a muscle or bone issue, it's tough to assess the current damage and then project the likelihood of future re-injury.
The New York Giants hold the No. 2 pick and may be in position to select Rosen. Scott Rodeo, their team physician, recently told Dan Duggan of NJ Advance Media that even the simplest measurement (number of concussions) can be flawed too:
"If someone has had three or four concussions, there's a likelihood that they're going to have another one. So we try to get the number from the player. You may question the veracity of what he tells you, but we ask the player, and we also get the information from the colleges. So, with a concussion we can look at the number. Beyond that, it's hard to do much because there's no imaging per se that tells us anything."
So to some extent teams are operating blind with a top-tier prospect such as Rosen, and there's a lot of waiting and hoping going on—which is a little scary.
Concern level: Moderate
Anthony Miller, Wide Receiver
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Anthony Miller is one of the safer prospects in a draft that has some hovering question marks at the wide receiver position.
He has a turbo gear and used it to average 15.1 yards per reception during his three seasons with Memphis. Miller also leaned on his deep speed and ability to separate while recording two straight years with 1,400-plus receiving yards and 90-plus catches. And he scored 40 touchdowns throughout his collegiate career.
He's a classic turf-burner and has the tools to become an immediate-impact player in the NFL, a league that seems to place an increasing emphasis on the deep ball with each passing season.
First, though, teams need to trust they're still drafting the speed-merchant version of Miller they saw at Memphis.
Miller is the high-end sports car of the 2018 draft, and a foot injury suffered during the Liberty Bowl gave him at least a minor dent. He was on crutches after the game and early in the pre-draft evaluation process, and he did not participate in the Senior Bowl.
Miller was also limited at the combine and didn't get a chance to showcase his speed while participating only in the bench press.
That heightened the importance of his Pro Day showing. Miller responded well to that pressure and put to rest any injury concerns by posting times of 4.46 and 4.52 in the 40-yard dash. And even more impressively, soaring for a vertical jump of 39 inches.
He's drawn a Doug Baldwin comparison from NFL Network's Matt Harmon because of his acceleration, shiftiness and overall production from the slot.
In 2017, Miller finished sixth in the nation with 3.43 yards per route run from the slot, according to Pro Football Focus, and also forced 19 missed tackles after the catch.
Concern level: Afterthought
Maurice Hurst, Defensive Tackle
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Maurice Hurst is one of the more dominant defensive tackle prospects in the 2018 NFL draft. He seemed destined for a first-round selection after his 10.5 sacks, 24.5 tackles for a loss and 92 tackles overall during his final two seasons at Michigan.
And he may still hear his name in the opening round, with CBSSports.com analyst Will Brinson slotting Hurst into the Atlanta Falcons at No. 26 in his most recent mock draft. But the player's journey to get there, and at worst likely be selected early on in Day 2, has come with a detour out of his control.
An injured prospect can work hard to rehab a broken bone or torn muscle. But there's no bounce-back map for an irregular heartbeat. The only option is to hope the situation corrects itself, which is what happened with Hurst.
The 6'1", 292-pound tackle was diagnosed with the issue at the scouting combine, as ESPN's Adam Schefter first reported. It's the sort of injury that extends beyond football and makes the game seem insignificant.
Hurst sat out combine drills with the same problem that's followed fellow defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who was still drafted by the Detroit Lions with their 13th-overall pick in 2011.
Fairley has since had a productive though inconsistent career, putting together three seasons with five-plus sacks, the most recent of which came in 2016 (a single-season high 6.5 sacks).
However, Fairley's condition surfaced again later in his career, causing him to sit out the entire 2017 campaign. That's why there's still a need for teams to proceed with caution when evaluating Hurst, even after he was medically cleared and not on the combine re-check list, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Concern level: Moderate
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Billy Price, Center
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The combine ended quickly for Ohio State center Billy Price—almost in tragic fashion.
He suffered an injury on just his third rep of the bench press. Initial reports were ominous and hinted strongly at an issue that could torpedo Price's draft value. The first scary words came from NFL Network's Albert Breer, who reported a torn pectoral was a possibility.
That would have sunk Price's chances of being a first-round pick, a round usually reserved for players who have the potential to make a significant first-year contribution.
Thankfully, it was later revealed Price suffered only a partial tear, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. That's still damaging heading into the draft for a player now likely to miss out on valuable early development time at OTAs.
But as Schefter also noted, Price expects to be healthy for training camp, which is one major bullet dodged.
His outlook could still take a minor blow, which is what happened to cornerback Fabian Moreau after he suffered a similar injury prior to the 2017 draft. His fall was finally stopped by the Washington Redskins at No. 81.
So Price might still lose some money, but here's the cold, ghoulish way to look at his injury through the lens of an NFL front office: A team could benefit from it when one of the draft's best centers falls.
Back in early February, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller projected the Buffalo Bills at No. 21 as Price's future NFL home. Then one month prior to the draft Price fell to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 30 in Miller's latest mock.
Concern level: Moderate
Nick Nelson, Cornerback
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It just wouldn't feel like draft season without a cornerback suffering a major injury.
In 2017, Sidney Jones' draft stock looked like Ozzie Smith in the Springfield Mystery Spot. He was ranked by Mike Mayock as the draft's top cornerback prior to the Washington Huskies' Pro Day. That's when he tore his Achilles, erasing his chances of being a first-round pick.
Jones fell to the middle of the second round. Now Wisconsin's Nick Nelson could also take a tumble after tearing his meniscus during a private workout with a team.
His fall likely won't be as crushing as the one Jones had to endure because Nelson has a shot at recovering in time for training camp. He might have to wait until early in Day 3 to know his future place of employment, which is where Nelson is projected by NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein.
Nelson didn't record an interception during his collegiate career, but he was still around the ball often while notching 41 passes defensed, most of which (21) came in 2017.
Concern level: Moderate
Frank Ragnow, Center
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The tale of Frank Ragnow is another case where a team could benefit from a discount, but a high-end prospect's bank account will take a roundhouse kick.
Ragnow was chugging toward first-round consideration before suffering the always-dreaded high-ankle sprain midway through the 2017 season, his final one with the Arkansas Razorbacks. That kept him sidelined for a good chunk of the regular season, and worse, he missed the Senior Bowl and scouting combine too.
That stings, and it could give NFL teams a bit of hesitancy many won't be able to shake during the first round. However, Ragnow did his best to make teams forget by finally taking the field during Arkansas' pro day and being his normal impressively athletic self.
Ragnow, who weighs 312 pounds and stands 6'5", set personal bests in the vertical jump (33.5 inches) and broad jump (nine feet, seven inches), and both of those results would have ranked second among offensive linemen at the combine.
Most importantly, Ragnow showed his ankle has mended well in the months since the injury, and now he can get back to being one of the most dominant centers in the 2018 draft.
He didn't surrender a sack throughout his entire collegiate career, per PFF, and prior to the injury in 2017 Ragnow allowed merely one hurry at center and two while playing right guard.
His injury shouldn't be a factor going forward, but NFL general managers tend to be a conservative bunch on draft day.
Concern level: Afterthought
Vita Vea, Defensive Tackle
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We've reached the point in the calendar where even the tiniest nuggets of information regarding a possible first-round pick are worth dissecting.
That applies to defensive tackle Vita Vea, who's a constant disruptive force up the middle and should be a top-20 selection. He might even come off the board in the top 10.
Vea shined during his brief appearance at the combine, showing off his strength at 6'4" and 347 pounds. He recorded 41 bench-press reps, but then his afternoon abruptly came to an end when the giant lineman suffered a hamstring injury while lumbering through the 40-yard dash.
But even at his size, and even during a run in which Vea injured himself, he still posted a time of 5.10 seconds. He has rare light, nimble feet for such a massive defender in the trenches, which is what makes him a threatening and versatile presence up front. He finished 2017 with 30 tackles (5.5 for a loss) and 3.5 sacks.
The hamstring injury kept Vea out for drills and testing during the Washington Huskies' pro day but only because it was shortly after the combine. Any general manager who cares about the injury going forward shouldn't be a general manager much longer.
Vea recorded 39 pressures in 2017, per PFF, and his power as an interior pass-rusher is why Miller projects him as a future member of the Washington Redskins after being selected 13th overall.
Concern level: Afterthought
Roquan Smith, Linebacker
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Roquan Smith fits the mold of the modern quick twitch NFL linebacker who can flow side-to-sideline with the play.
At 6'1" and 236 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.51 seconds, which ranked fourth among linebackers at the combine. That speed is the foundation of his effectiveness against the run and as a pass-rusher. It's how he recorded 137 tackles and 6.5 sacks during his final season at Georgia.
His speed is also what makes Smith a likely top-10 pick widely mocked to the Oakland Raiders. Unfortunately, he experienced some hamstring tightness while showing off his quickness at the combine.
Concern about Smith's injury grew slightly in early March when Draft Analyst's Tony Pauline reported he was flagged medically by several teams. But that turned out to be only a passing scare, as later NFLDraftScout's Dane Brugler reported Smith has been cleared and wasn't scheduled for a combine medical recheck.
Smith should be just fine going forward, and he is racing Tremaine Edmunds to be the first linebacker selected.
Concern level: Afterthought
Harold Landry, Defensive End
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Evaluating Harold Landry requires a good memory.
The defensive end erupted for Boston College in 2016, leading the nation in sacks with 16.5 while also recording 22 tackles for a loss. He was a constant menace in the backfield because of his burst to accelerate around blockers.
However, Landry couldn't repeat that high-end production in 2017 because an ankle injury limited him to just eight games played.
However, he still notched five sacks despite the shortened senior season. Then Landry went on to tear apart the combine, most notably posting a three-cone drill time of 6.88 seconds. Only six other defensive linemen who weighed 250-plus pounds and were selected in the first round have recorded a sub-6.9 time, per PFF.
So it feels pretty safe to say Landry's ankle has healed nicely, and he's worthy of first-round buzz.
Concern level: Afterthought
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