Fluke or for Real: Making Sense of 10 Most Shocking MLB Starts
Oh, April, how you confound.
On one hand, we've endured months of frigid, baseball-free winter. We want so badly to invest in the action. On the other, small-sample illusions abound this time of year.
Here, then, is a look at 10 surprising starts by both players and teams and predictions as to whether they're flukes or for real.
We're basing our takes on stats and projection models, along with a dollop of gut feeling. That said, we could be wrong. The small-sample knife cuts both ways.
Dansby Swanson: Arriving as a Star
1 of 10
Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick in the 2015 amateur draft, underwhelmed in his rookie season last year.
In 144 games with the Atlanta Braves, Swanson hit .232 with 120 strikeouts and looked frequently overmatched. It was worth wondering if he'd be less a franchise cornerstone and more a high-profile bust.
So far in 2018, Swanson is silencing the doubters.
Through his first 10 games, the 24-year-old is hitting .366 with four doubles, a triple and a home run. His .438 batting average on balls in play suggests his numbers could trend downward.
Given his pedigree, however, Swanson is an emerging stud worth buying stock in.
Verdict: Real
Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st Place in the NL Central
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The Pittsburgh Pirates dealt outfielder Andrew McCutchen and ace Gerrit Cole over the offseason and appeared to be replacing their skull-and-crossbones banner with a white flag. Fans started a Change.org petition aimed at forcing principal owner Bob Nutting to sell the club.
Ten games into the 2018 slate, the Bucs are 8-2 and in first place in the National League Central.
It's a great start and a cool early story. Can it last? That seems doubtful.
The Pirates ply their trade in one of MLB's deepest divisions. The Chicago Cubs are a legitimate World Seres hopeful, while the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers are prime wild-card contenders. Despite its hot start, at a certain point Pittsburgh will suffer from playing so many games against playoff-caliber squads.
FanGraphs predicted an 80-82 finish. That feels accurate.
Manager Clint Hurdle sounded a cautious note after his team shot out of the gate, per Will Graves of the Associated Press: "I think it's too early for us to get caught up in that. We're just going to continue to show up and play the game. The game lets you know where you need to improve."
Spoken like a man who understands hot starts often fade.
Verdict: Fluke
Shohei Ohtani: Legitimate 2-Way Star
3 of 10
First, Shohei Ohtani was the second coming of Babe Ruth. Then, the two-way Japanese star was a bust. Now, he's back atop mount hype. All in the span of a few months.
When the Los Angeles Angels inked Ohtani in December, he was supposed to be a triple-digit-slinging pitcher and a crusher of tape-measure home runs. After the 23-year-old posted a 27.00 ERA and hit .125 with nary an extra-base hit in spring training, reasonable doubts arose.
Through two starts and 13 innings on the hill with the Halos, Ohtani owns a 2.08 ERA with 18 strikeouts and has held opposing hitters to a .093 average. In the batter's box, he's posted a .368 average with three home runs and a 1.242 OPS.
There will surely be growing pains for Ohtani, as there are for all players. Reports of his being overrated or a bust, however, were undeniably premature.
Verdict: Real
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Matt Harvey: An Ace Risen from the Ashes
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Remember when New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey earned his Dark Knight nickname and dominated opposing hitters?
Yeah, we do too.
Subsequently, Harvey crumbled into a heap of injuries and underperformance and posted a 6.70 ERA in 2017. His career was on the ropes.
In his first start of 2018, Harvey fanned five Philadelphia Phillies and allowed one walk, one hit and no runs in five innings. Visions of the superhero's triumphant return to his Bat Cave surely danced in the Queens faithful's heads.
"He's got that look in his eye back," catcher Travis d'Arnaud said, per James Wagner of the New York Times.
In his next start, however, Harvey coughed up nine hits and four earned runs to the Washington Nationals. His average fastball velocity has sat at 93.2 mph, compared to a career average of 96 mph.
Harvey could be an effective mid-rotation arm. He's 29 years old and in a contract year. His days as an unequivocal ace, though, are likely finished.
Verdict: Fluke
Giancarlo Stanton: Strikeout Machine
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In 11 games with the New York Yankees, Giancarlo Stanton is striking out at an alarming pace.
The Yanks' big offseason prize began his pinstriped tenure on an auspicious note, as he slugged two home runs in his first game. Overall, Stanton is hitting a mere .196 with 22 strikeouts in 46 at-bats.
"For a guy like Giancarlo, he's going to have weeks where he gets a little out of whack and it doesn't necessarily look great," skipper Aaron Boone said, per Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post.
Will it keep looking bad? Don't bank on it.
Like many modern sluggers, Stanton has a penchant for strikeouts. He also sports a .360 career on-base percentage and .267 average, numbers that aren't likely to trend downward in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium with Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez as his wingmen.
Be patient in the Bronx. Swallow the K's, enjoy the inevitable bombs. The latter will outweigh the former.
Verdict: Fluke
Rhys Hoskins: Emerging Star
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Rhys Hoskins burst onto the scene with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017. He clubbed 18 home runs in 50 games and finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting.
As an encore, the 25-year-old is tied for the NL lead with a .375 average to go along with a 1.219 OPS.
David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer summed it up with a dash of hyperbole but a helping of truth:
"Hoskins isn't just the best hitter on the Phillies. He's one of the best hitters in the league, a guy with the potential to transcend geography in the same vein as Carson Wentz and Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. He is the guy who ensures that the rebuild is over, a centerpiece slugger who makes it possible to fill the rest of the lineup with hitters who are slotted in the appropriate place."
The kid is legit. The limit should be adjusted skyward.
Verdict: Real
Patrick Corbin: Strikeout King
7 of 10
The Arizona Diamondbacks have started as early favorites in the NL West, thanks in no small part to left-hander Patrick Corbin.
Through three starts, Corbin has fanned 29 in 18.1 innings with a 2.45 ERA. Is the Snakes' southpaw baseball's new bat-missing champion? Hold your horses.
Corbin posted a 5.15 ERA in 2016 and a 4.03 ERA in 2017 while averaging a decent but far from transcendent 7.6 and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
He has been leaning more heavily on his slider, throwing it 50.7 percent of the time compared to a career average of 28.1 percent, per FanGraphs. That could help explain his newfound success, but MLB hitters are known for making adjustments.
Corbin is a nice piece for the D-backs as they mount a challenge out West. But his chances of remaining a stat-stuffing strikeout artist are dim.
Verdict: Fluke
Boston Red Sox: Toast of the American League
8 of 10
The Boston Red Sox are the defending AL East champions. They added top-shelf slugger J.D. Martinez this offseason. It's not a shock they're winning games.
Still, a 9-1 start turns heads.
So far, the Sox are firing on all cylinders. They have the second-best ERA in the AL at 2.53 and the third-best OPS in the Junior Circuit at .761. They walk like a complete team, they quack like a complete team.
David Price (0.00 ERA) and Rick Porcello (2.84 ERA) are on the comeback trail alongside ace Chris Sale (1.06 ERA). Right fielder Mookie Betts and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (though on the disabled list with an ankle injury) have led the offensive charge.
The Yankees will be a serious factor in the division. The Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians lurk as legitimate title contenders.
The Red Sox are in the thick of it, though. They won't win nine out of every 10 games the rest of the way, but they should stay in the conversation for the best team in the Junior Circuit through the summer and beyond.
Verdict: Real
Bryce Harper: Contract-Year Megastar
9 of 10
Not sure if you've heard, but Bryce Harper is in his contract year. The 25-year-old is set to hit free agency next winter. So far, he's a man on a mission.
Maybe it's silly to classify the fact that Harper is hitting the ball with authority as "shocking." Thus far, though, he's crushed six home runs in 11 games.
No, he isn't likely to maintain that fence-clearing pace. And yeah, the brash Nats basher might succumb to the injury bug. He's battled an array of maladies and eclipsed 150 games only once in his career. Last season, a knee issue limited him to 111 games.
This feels like the season Harper puts it together, however, returns to his 2015-level dominance—when he won NL MVP honors with a 1.109 OPS—and reels in what could be the most lucrative payday in baseball history.
Verdict: Real
New York Mets: World Series Hopeful
10 of 10
After winning the NL pennant in 2015, the New York Mets have sunk from a wild-card one-and-done to a sub-.500 also-ran.
Now, they're off to a blazing start.
Through 10 games, the Mets lead the NL East with a 9-1 record. Their pitching staff is second in the NL with a 2.61 ERA, and their bats are third with a .757 OPS.
"We fight every inning," said veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, per James Wagner of the New York Times. "We never put our head down."
It's a nice sentiment for the Mets, who will always be the Big Apple's other club. They look like a factor in a division dominated by the Nationals but featuring a soft bottom in the rebuilding Braves and Phillies and decimated Marlins.
New York is a wild-card contender. As for a credible championship hopeful? In a league that features the Los Angeles Dodgers, Nats and Cubs, we'll need to wait a bit longer.
Verdict: Fluke
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