10 Bold MLB Home Run Predictions for 2018
Home runs were hit at a dizzying rate around Major League Baseball last season, and more of the same awaits in 2018.
A record 6,105 home runs were hit leaguewide in 2017.
That included 41 players with at least 30 home runs and a staggering 117 players with at least 20 long balls.
Giancarlo Stanton led the majors with 59 homers on his way to National League MVP honors, while Aaron Judge (52 HR) and Cody Bellinger (39 HR) set the respective single-season rookie marks in the AL and NL to win Rookie of the Year honors.
So what surprises might be in store for 2018?
Ahead are 10 bold home run-related predictions for the year to come.
Surprise NL 30-Homer Player: Aaron Altherr, Philadelphia Phillies
1 of 10
The emergence of Rhys Hoskins was the story of the 2017 second half for the Philadelphia Phillies, and the front office doubled down by making a splash this winter—signing Carlos Santana to a $60 million deal.
However, it was Aaron Altherr who looked like the team's best hitter prior to the All-Star break.
The 27-year-old posted an .886 OPS with 14 home runs in 298 plate appearances in the first half, before he was slowed by a strained hamstring in the second half.
Now, with Hoskins moving to left field and Nick Williams pushing his way into the outfield picture, Altherr has become something of a forgotten man.
Don't bet against him still breaking out.
He bought into the fly-ball revolution (22.5 to 37.5 percent) last year and made significantly more hard contact (29.5 to 36.4 percent) in the process.
If Altherr can return to the form he showed in the first half last year, the Phillies will have no choice but to give him everyday playing time.
The result could be a 30-homer season in what was baseball's most homer-friendly ballpark last year.
Surprise NL 30-Homer Player: Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
2 of 10
Christian Yelich has been one of the most underrated players in baseball the past several seasons.
An offseason trade to the Milwaukee Brewers could mean an offensive explosion is coming in 2018.
After hitting just 20 home runs in his first three MLB seasons combined, Yelich slugged 21 long balls in 2016 and followed that up with 18 more last season.
Now, the move from Marlins Park (0.835 HR Park Factor) to Miller Park (1.049 HR Park Factor) could propel his power to another level.
Travis Shaw (31 HR), Eric Thames (31 HR) and Domingo Santana (30 HR) all enjoyed breakout seasons playing for the Brew Crew last season.
Yelich could be next.
Surprise AL 30-Homer Player: Randal Grichuk, Toronto Blue Jays
3 of 10
Randal Grichuk has shown impressive raw power throughout his time in the big leagues.
The 26-year-old hit 17 home runs as a rookie in 2015, and he's averaged 23 homers and 460 plate appearances the past two seasons.
Unfortunately, injuries and inconsistency have kept him from seeing a full season's worth of playing time to this point in his career.
An offseason trade to the Toronto Blue Jays could change that.
"Anytime you can go somewhere else and have a better opportunity than where you were at, I feel like for a young player that's what they want to do," Grichuk told reporters.
Playing in a hitter-friendly park and in a division loaded with homer-friendly ballparks, a 30-homer season might be inevitable if he can stay healthy.
.png?w=256)
Surprise AL 30-Homer Player: Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
4 of 10
Matt Chapman launched 36 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A during the 2016 season.
He followed that up with 30 more long balls last season, including 14 in 326 plate appearances with the big league club following a midseason promotion.
His Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base is enough to make him an everyday player.
His over-the-fence power could make him a star.
FanGraphs gives him a grade of 40 for his current in-game power, meaning there's still room for him to grow, with a potential ceiling of 55.
His scouting report reads: "Matt Chapman is all about power, fly balls and strikeouts, and the former two are abundant enough to offset the latter. Few, if any, minor leaguers (including those who debuted in 2017) hit for consistently high HR/FB rates like Chapman."
That meshes well with the new fly ball-centric approach sweeping the league in recent seasons.
And with Chapman hitting alongside Khris Davis and Matt Olson in the middle of the Oakland lineup, the A's have an offense that could really surprise some people this year.
NL Rookie Leader: Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
5 of 10
The easy pick would be Atlanta Braves phenom Ronald Acuna.
That wouldn't have been very bold, though.
Instead, we'll go with Colorado Rockies rookie Ryan McMahon as the pick to pace NL rookies.
The 23-year-old looks poised to take over as the primary first baseman in Colorado after Mark Reynolds departed in free agency, and if his 2017 season in the minors is any indication, big things are coming.
A second-round pick in 2013, McMahon hit .355/.403/.583 with 39 doubles and 20 home runs in 519 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A before receiving his first taste of MLB action.
With a clear path to playing time and a favorable home ballpark, a 25-homer debut seems very doable.
Others to Watch: Ronald Acuna (ATL), Jorge Alfaro (PHI), Brian Anderson (MIA), Lewis Brinson (MIA), Scott Kingery (PHI), Colin Moran (PIT), Nick Senzel (CIN), Jesse Winker (CIN)
AL Rookie Leader: Willie Calhoun, Texas Rangers
6 of 10
Willie Calhoun can flat-out rake.
A fourth-round pick in 2015 out of JUCO powerhouse Yavapai College in Arizona, he's slugged 69 home runs in his first three professional seasons.
That includes a 31-homer performance at the Triple-A level last year, and he hit his first MLB home run in a 13-game audition in September.
Calhoun was optioned to the minors to start the 2018 season.
However, it's hard to envision Ryan Rua, Drew Robinson and Carlos Tocci holding him off for the starting left field job for an extended amount of time.
His defense remains a work in progress, but he has legitimate 30-homer power right now.
Others to Watch: Austin Hays (BAL), Eloy Jimenez (CWS), Francisco Mejia (CLE), Ryan O'Hearn (KC), Christin Stewart (DET), Daniel Vogelbach (SEA)
NL Leader: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
7 of 10
Kris Bryant saw his home run total dip from 39 during his NL MVP season in 2016 to just 29 last year.
That doesn't mean it was a bad season by any stretch of the imagination.
"I thought I had a great year," Bryant told reporters. "I don’t care what people think, honestly."
Part of the reason for the dip in over-the-fence production stems from his continued development as a better all-around hitter.
Bryant made a concerted effort to use the whole field more last season as his pull rate dropped (46.7 to 41.2 percent), and some of that has to do with how pitchers attacked him.
He also showed more patience with his walk rate jumping from 10.7 to 14.3 percent.
We saw a similar progression from Mike Trout. His home run total dropped from 41 in 2015 to 29 in 2016 as he continued to refine his approach and then jumped back up last season in what would have been a career year if not for injury.
Look for a similar rebound in power production from Bryant in 2018.
And with Giancarlo Stanton now calling the AL home, the NL field is wide open.
AL Leader: Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
8 of 10
Ask the casual fan to name baseball's two most prolific home run hitters the past two seasons.
Giancarlo Stanton tops that list with 86 homers, and he'd likely be the first name out of more than a few people's mouths.
It could be a while before someone guesses Khris Davis, though.
Yet there he is, just one behind Stanton with 85 homers since joining the Oakland Athletics.
So why not Davis?
Below the surface, the 30-year-old quietly became a more disciplined hitter last season, raising his walk rate from 6.9 to 11.2 percent while making more hard contact (39.1 to 42.1 percent) in the process.
A full-time move to DH also means he won't need to worry about his less-than-stellar defensive game (-13 DRS, -14.7 UZR/150) and can turn his full attention to hitting.
With a better supporting cast and given his recent production, a 50-homer season is not unthinkable.
The New York Yankees Will Break the Team Single-Season Record
9 of 10
Last season, the New York Yankees led all of baseball with 241 home runs.
And all they did was go out and acquire reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton during the offseason, fresh off a monster 59-homer season with the Miami Marlins.
Now, they'll take aim at the single-season team record.
That record currently belongs to the 1997 Seattle Mariners, who launched 264 homers en route to a 90-win season and an AL West title. Just for fun, here's a look at the home run leaders from that team:
- Ken Griffy Jr.: 56
- Jay Buhner: 40
- Paul Sorrento: 31
- Edgar Martinez: 28
- Alex Rodriguez: 23
- Russ Davis: 20
- Dan Wilson: 15
- Jose Cruz Jr.: 12
- Joey Cora: 11
With Stanton joining Aaron Judge (52 HR) and Gary Sanchez (33 HR) in the middle of the lineup, and both Didi Gregorius (25 HR) and Brett Gardner (21 HR) also coming off 20-homer seasons, balls are going to be flying out of Yankee Stadium this summer.
We'll say they set the record with 272.
J.D. Martinez Will Hit More Home Runs Than Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge
10 of 10
This might run contradictory to saying the Yankees are going to set the single-season team home run record, but it's not all that far-fetched.
Giancarlo Stanton has a lengthy injury history and Aaron Judge will likely experience at least some level of regression after his historically good rookie season.
Both of them could still hit 40 home runs, but expecting them to duplicate their 2017 totals might be wishful thinking.
Gary Sanchez is also capable of going deep 40 times, so if those three combined for 120-plus long balls, the team would be well on its way to the record.
Meanwhile, would anyone be surprised if J.D. Martinez hits 50-plus home runs?
The 30-year-old went deep 45 times last season in just 489 plate appearances, and moving to Fenway Park is going to be a huge boon to his power production.
So let's wrap this up with some concrete predictions for the AL home run leaders:
- Khris Davis: 51 HR
- J.D. Martinez: 50 HR
- Giancarlo Stanton: 47 HR
- Gary Sanchez: 43 HR
- Aaron Judge: 40 HR
Bold, but not entirely unfathomable, right?
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
