Buying or Selling MLB's Biggest Breakout Stars of Spring Training 2018
Spring training is full of small-sample illusions as well as legitimate breakouts.
Some guys light up the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues only to be exposed once the regular season begins. Others maintain their pace and earn a spot in the firmament of MLB stars.
With that in mind, let's examine nine prospects/unestablished players who have torched the 2018 exhibition slate and decide whether we're buying or selling on their breakout potential going forward.
Illusion, meet reality.
Scott Kingery, INF, Philadelphia Phillies
1 of 9
With 20 hits in 20 spring contests—including three doubles and four home runs—top Philadelphia Phillies position-player prospect (via MLB.com) Scott Kingery owns a .392 average and 1.141 OPS.
The 23-year-old has logged innings at second base, third base and in the outfield, but he has no clear path to immediate regular playing time with the Phils. Plus, it behooves the team to start him at Triple-A Lehigh Valley and delay his service clock.
No matter what, he should be plying his trade soon in the City of Brotherly Love.
"Beyond his talent, it's his work ethic, his drive, his determination, how badly he wants it," manager Gabe Kapler said, per Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press (via the Washington Post). "Every day he becomes more likable as a baseball player and as a man."
Verdict: Buying
Mike Freeman, INF/OF, Chicago Cubs
2 of 9
On a deep and loaded Chicago Cubs roster, Mike Freeman has made a name for himself this spring. In 51 Cactus League at-bats, Freeman has 21 hits, including five doubles and two home runs, and 10 RBI.
That equates to a .412 average and 1.092 OPS, marks that outpace the likes of Kris Bryant (.333 average, .939 OPS) and Anthony Rizzo (.341 average, 1.017 OPS).
Now for the wet blanket. Freeman turns 31 in August and owns a .134 average and .211 on-base percentage in 56 career big league games.
He's gotten himself on the Cubbies' radar, but the odds that he logs significant innings on the North Side—or with any other MLB squad—are decidedly low.
Verdict: Selling
Lewis Brinson, CF, Miami Marlins
3 of 9
The Miami Marlins gutted their roster this winter under a new ownership group fronted by Derek Jeter.
The Fish jettisoned outfielders Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton as well as second baseman Dee Gordon.
It's a bitter pill to swallow in South Beach, but the Marlins did net some intriguing young talent.
Place Lewis Brinson at the top of the heap.
The 23-year-old—acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in the Yelich trade—is hitting .328 with two home runs this spring and is poised to take over as Miami's center fielder of the present and future.
Manager Don Mattingly indicated Brinson could be his leadoff hitter.
"He's a guy that we think is going to steal bags," Mattingly said, per Craig Davis of the Sun-Sentinel. "Not that he's a 50[-stolen base] guy, but he's a 20- to 30-[stolen base] guy, and at some point he's going to hit some homers too."
Verdict: Buying
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Kyle Jensen, 1B, San Francisco Giants
4 of 9
The San Francisco Giants need power after finishing last in home runs and OPS in 2017.
Bay Area native Kyle Jensen provided pop this spring with a team-leading five home runs in 22 games and a 1.452 OPS. Is he the answer to San Francisco's fence-clearing deficiency?
Not so fast. According to Baseball Reference's opponent quality measure, the pitching Jensen faced in the Cactus League rated a 6.9 out of 10, which means he was raking mostly against lower-minors competition.
Add the fact that he'll turn 30 in May, and Jensen looks more like organizational depth than a rising slugger.
Verdict: Selling
RHP Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 9
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been understandably cautious with top pitching prospect Walker Buehler.
The 23-year-old posted a 3.35 ERA with 125 strikeouts in 88.2 innings in the minors in 2017 while climbing from High-A to Double-A and Triple-A, and he also made his big league debut (7.71 ERA in eight appearances). It was his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.
As such, the Dodgers limited Buehler to four innings in the Cactus League. He made the most of them, striking out seven while yielding one hit, one walk and no runs.
"I have a new ligament," Buehler said, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. "I have a new arm. I have new kind of arsenal. It's a different world now."
Verdict: Buying
1B Dan Vogelbach, Seattle Mariners
6 of 9
Is this the year Dan Vogelbach breaks through for the Seattle Mariners? With a .400 average and six home runs this spring, it appears possible.
"He's got a lot of confidence right now," manager Scott Servais said, per TJ Cotterill of the News Tribune. "He's handling his at-bats, he's using the whole ballpark, he's hit the ball hard. He's really from the start of spring to now as consistent as anybody we've had."
But (could you sense there was a "but" coming?) Vogelbach is blocked at first base by offseason acquisition Ryon Healy, who recently returned from wrist surgery.
In 24 big league games spread between 2016 and 2017, Vogelbach has hit a scant .175 with one extra-base hit. At some point, the M's will give the 25-year-old another look, but his chances of making an impact in Seattle are low at best.
Verdict: Selling
A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
7 of 9
The Oakland Athletics glimpsed their potential ace of the future this spring.
In 10.2 innings, left-hander A.J. Puk posted a 3.38 ERA and held opponents to a .184 average. More importantly, the kid who has earned favorable comparisons to Randy Johnson looked like he belonged.
Troublingly, the A's shut Puk down on March 21 because of biceps soreness, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, though an MRI revealed no structural damage.
Assuming that's merely a speed bump, the 22-year-old should soon be hurling in the East Bay for an A's team that's always eager to promote cost-controlled talent.
Verdict: Buying (with slight reservations)
Jose Pirela, LF, San Diego Padres
8 of 9
After brief stints with the New York Yankees in 2014 and 2015 and an audition with the San Diego Padres in 2016, Jose Pirela played 83 games with the Friars in 2017 and hit 10 home runs with a .288 average.
This spring, Pirela is hitting .385 with a 1.055 OPS. He's gotten the attention of his skipper, Andy Green.
"He plays the way you want everyone to play," Green said, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. "I absolutely love it."
Still, Pirela is 28 years old, and he slashed an abysmal .154/.175/.205 for the Padres in 2016. He's an interesting wild card for a rebuilding team, but he'll need more extensive results in The Show before we declare him a legitimate big leaguer.
Verdict: Selling
Ronald Acuna Jr., CF, Atlanta Braves
9 of 9
Ronald Acuna Jr. hit .432 with four home runs and four stolen bases for the Atlanta Braves in the Grapefruit League. He walked like a big leaguer. He quacked like a big leaguer.
However, because of MLB's service-time rules, the Braves are stashing him in the minors to gain another year of club control.
It won't be long before the 20-year-old is in Atlanta. Like, say, the day after the April 13 service-time deadline.
"We feel like it would probably be best overall, from a philosophical standpoint, to give him more development time," Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos said, per ESPN.com. "There's no manual on how to handle a player's development. They're not all the same."
One part of that statement is true: Acuna isn't the same as most players.
Verdict: Buying
All statistics current through Sunday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
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