Top 2018 NFL Prospects Falling Down Draft Boards
The NFL predraft process is like a four-month job interview. There's the Senior Bowl in January. The scouting combine in February. Pro days in March. Individual team workouts well into April.
Test after test after test after test.
Some players ace every one, steadily climbing draft boards. They work their way into the draft's first day or even into the top 10 picks.
For others, things don't go so well. Maybe it was a dismal combine workout. Or an injury at the worst moment. Or a similarly ill-timed medical red flag.
Oftentimes, it's nothing the player does. Some youngsters do everything the right way only to fall victim to a draft-day numbers game. Or the changing whims of those who practice the inexact science that is trying to predict who will get drafted where starting April 26.
Whatever the reason, the players listed here all have one issue in common: With just over a month to go until the draft, their stock is drifting in the wrong direction.
Some will be busts. Others may be bargains.
The hard part for NFL teams is deciphering which is which.
Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
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Orlando Brown really needs a hug.
At his junior season's conclusion, he was among the leading candidates to be the first offensive tackle drafted in 2018—a 6'8", 345-pound road-grader who was a first-team All-American in 2017.
Then came the NFL Scouting Combine.
To say Brown had a bad showing in Indianapolis is a massive understatement. It was an unmitigated catastrophe. Brown's 40 time was best measured with a calendar—5.85 seconds (easily the worst among all offensive linemen).
Granted, you don't often see O-linemen barreling 40 yards downfield, but it's not like any of Brown's other numbers were better. He was the only lineman who failed to break two seconds in his 10-yard split. Brown's 14 bench press reps were also dead last in the position group. So was his 19.5-inch vertical jump. And his 82-inch broad jump. And his 5.38-second 20-yard shuttle.
Brown's combine was such a nightmare that after watching it unfold, Bleacher Report's Doug Farrar asked, "Did Orlando Brown just have the worst combine performance of all time?"
Per Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated, Brown blamed his miserable combine on the bench press, proclaiming that things got away from him from there. And to his credit, his numbers at Oklahoma's recent pro day were better.
But even those numbers (18 reps, 5.63-second 40, 25.5-inch vertical, 89-inch broad jump, per Staples) were less "great" and more "OK." They didn't completely allay concerns that Brown got by at Oklahoma because he's 6'8" and tops 340 pounds with 35-inch arms.
Just as those concerns won't completely turn NFL teams away from a 6'8", 340-pounder with 35-inch arms.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
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After watching Baker Mayfield at the Senior Bowl, an AFC scout told David Ubben of TexasFootball.com back in January that he would be "shocked" if the Oklahoma quarterback falls from the top 10 in this year's draft.
As recently as mid-February, some mocks did Ubben one better, projecting that the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner could be the No. 1 overall pick.
But as we have moved through the combine and pro days, draftniks generally seem to believe Mayfield will be the last of the "Big Four" quarterbacks to be selected in 2018.
Bleacher Report's Matt Miller believes that will be the case. So do both Bucky Brooks and Chad Reuter of NFL.com.
It isn't hard to see why the draft community has Mayfield slotted fourth among quarterbacks. All one needs to do is line the quartet up. Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold all look the part of an NFL quarterback. Mayfield's barely over 6 feet tall. His combine performance wasn't the worst at his position, but it wasn't the best, either.
However, as Miller pointed out, Mayfield has supporters:
"Mayfield is one of the more polarizing prospects in this class, but those that believe in his talent seem to be all-in on his abilities. His accuracy, touch and movement skills are some of the best in this year's group of quarterbacks. And while he is undersized (6'1", 215 lbs) and lacks elite speed (4.84 seconds) he does seem to overcome the odds to succeed at every level."
It's that last part that sticks. Mayfield wins. Time after time with games on the line, Mayfield led scoring drives for the Sooners—partly because he put the ball where he needed to. Mayfield's 2017 completion rate (70.5) was 14.2 percentage points higher than Josh Allen's (56.3).
Mayfield may well be the fourth quarterback drafted April 26. That doesn't make him the fourth-best prospect in the class.
It might make him the biggest steal.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
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After Saquon Barkley blew the roof off Lucas Oil Stadium at the combine, more than a few mock drafters predicted the Cleveland Browns would take a tailback No. 1 overall for the first time in over two decades (Ki-Jana Carter, 1995).
Just a couple of weeks later, it's possible Barkley will fall out of the top five altogether.
It's got nothing to do with the player. He's a special prospect—every bit the back Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott (the fourth overall picks the past two years) were entering the NFL.
The running back renaissance appears to be the real deal.
His drop reflects the reality of the situation. A numbers game.
The New York Jets' move up to No. 3 didn't only ensure Gang Green would take a quarterback there. It also ramped up pressure on the Cleveland Browns to take one first overall.
Assuming the Browns do, it's possible the New York Giants will snare Barkley at No. 2. Or they might increase Eli Manning's protection with Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson. Or draft Manning's successor. Or trade the pick in the hopes of getting an even better haul than the Indianapolis Colts got for that third pick.
Many of those scenarios would drop Barkley to the Browns at No. 4. They could also drop North Carolina State edge-rusher Bradley Chubb to that spot. Quite the conundrum.
If Barkley gets past Cleveland at No. 4 and the QB-needy Broncos at No. 5, the Colts would be waiting to pounce at No. 6—to get the player who may well have been the target at No. 3.
With three extra second-rounders in their pockets to boot.
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Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa
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Iowa's Josh Jackson was one of college football's most productive cornerbacks last year. The 6'1", 192-pounder tallied 48 tackles and eight interceptions in 2017. No FBS player had more of the latter.
However, Jackson was also a one-year starter, which placed additional pressure on him to perform well in testing if he hoped to challenge Denzel Ward to be the first corner selected.
He did not.
Jackson's 4.56-second 40-yard-dash was almost a full quarter-second slower than Ward's (4.32) and the other top times in Indianapolis. But as Erick Trickel reported for 247Sports, Jackson's showing in the position drills may have been the bigger concern.
"Jackson ran slightly slower than expected, but that wasn't enough in and of itself to land him as a [combine] loser," Trickel wrote. "It was his work in the drills. He wasn't very smooth and often got too high in his back pedal. Jackson is viewed as a scheme-specific corner, and his combine performance cemented that and may have dropped him down some boards."
Sure enough, Brooks' recent mock draft has Jackson falling from the first round altogether. Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz of USA Today projected Jackson would be the final pick of Round 1.
If Jackson's going to fortify his first-round stock, it'll take a much better showing at the Hawkeyes' pro day March 26.
Of course, if he falls into Round 2 but plays like the ball-hawking star he was in 2017, that will make him a steal—possibly one of the biggest in this year's class.
Josey Jewell, ILB, Iowa
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Jackson wasn't the only Hawkeyes defender who saw his draft stock tumble after this year's combine.
Linebacker Josey Jewell wasn't on the first-round radar. But after recording an eye-popping 132 total tackles in 2017 (including 13.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks), the 6'1", 235-pounder had a chance to be selected on Day 2—with one AFC scouting director telling Lance Zierlein of NFL.com he expected Jewell's tape to win more than a few teams over.
"I like him a lot," the scout said. "I think he will run faster than people think for sure. Give me a guy with his mindset and instincts and I can sell him to a coaching staff even if he's not as big as they are looking for. His tape will win them over."
The problem is Jewell didn't run faster than anyone expected. If anything, he was slower—Jewell had a terrible showing in workouts punctuated by a 4.82-second 40-yard-dash that only served to hammer home doubts about his athleticism.
It's not unheard of for NFL teams to look past athletic limitations and take linebackers with Jewell's resume on Day 2—there's ample tape of him displaying excellent instincts, toughness and feel for where the ball will be.
But coverage skills are more important than ever in today's NFL, and when a player you already thought was slow turns out to be even slower, it becomes harder to have confidence he'll to hold up in that regard.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
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Alabama's Calvin Ridley hauled in 63 catches for 967 yards and five scores last year, and it's believed he'll be the first player at his position to find a new home.
However, that's less certain than it was before Ridley's combine performance. The 6'0" receiver showed up at just 189 pounds, which did nothing to erase questions about his size. His 4.43-second 40-yard dash time was fine, but eyebrows went up when Ridley's broad (110") and vertical jump (31") numbers were among the worst at his position group.
A few more brows were raised when Ridley didn't try to improve those numbers at Alabama's pro day. In fact, per Chase Goodbread of NFL.com, Ridley told the NFL Network's Kimberly Jones those combine jumping tests were much ado about nothing.
"I do feel like I'm the best receiver in the draft," Ridley said. "I just want to prove it."
"I don't get into a receiver stance and broad jump before I run a route. Whoever gets me is getting a great player," Ridley said. "... I know I can beat all those scores by a lot, but [in training] I was trying to get ready for my 40, which I was upset about, too. I didn't have a great combine, not like I wanted to. I should've gone in there and just run the 40 and run routes, and done all the other stuff here [at pro day]. ... Mistake."
Not trying to better those results at that pro day may have been another one.
Still, Ridley's the most accomplished route-runner of this year's receivers. And he's got a point.
When's the last time you saw a receiver "hop" open?
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
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It's no secret there are a pack of NFL teams looking to draft a starting quarterback. The New York Jets didn't trade three second-rounders to move up three spots to take an offensive guard.
But there will be teams frozen out of that search. Those that have to look to the position on Day 2. There just aren't enough first-round signal-callers to go around.
It's getting harder for that group to talk themselves into Washington State's Luke Falk as a second-day solution.
It's not that Falk didn't ace the athletic testing in Indy. No one expected him to. Even he admitted, per Stefanie Loh of the Seattle Times, he's not the fleetest of foot.
"People say 'mobile,' and it can be two things," Falk said. "It can be you are out on the run making plays with your legs or you can be like Brady and Philip [Rivers] and those guys that play at a high level. They make subtle, little quick movements in the pocket, and I think that's what I try to emulate my game after."
However, among the class' top 10 quarterbacks, Falk had the most troubles throwing at the combine, struggling with both his accuracy and anticipation. Yes, that was with unfamiliar receivers, but this time of year, even the little things can make a big difference.
Drills can't erase Falk's successes at Washington State, though. And it feels worth mentioning that back in 2012, no one was doing cartwheels about the idea of drafting Kirk Cousins.
That was about $130 million in earnings ago.
Just saying.
Billy Price, OG, Ohio State
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Billy Price's stock may have fallen as much as any player here, but it's not the 6'4", 305-pounder's fault.
As Cameron Wolfe reported for ESPN.com, Price suffered a partial tear of his pectoral muscle while on the combine bench press. The lineman insisted the injury wasn't major and that he'll be fine for training camp.
"Looking at the MRI results, we were able to see a little bit of an issue, nothing that's going to force me to miss time at all," said Price, who started 55 consecutive games for the Buckeyes. "I'll be fine for the season going forward."
However, Price's camp had a change of heart. On March 6, Ohio State's all-time leader in career starts went under the knife.
And as soon as he did, his draft stock tumbled.
One injury isn't the end of the world. After all, that starts streak demonstrates a tough, durable player with extensive experience at guard and center. And while he may have missed the predraft testing process, there's hours upon hours of tape of Price playing at high level.
That film won't make it easier for a team to talk itself into spending a first-round pick on a player who'll miss rookie minicamp and most of OTAs—at least.
But if Price returns at close to 100 percent, the franchise that drafts him will get a Round 1 talent.
Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
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At Michigan's pro day Friday, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst will have a chance to revive his lagging draft stock—just by working out.
One of the biggest combine curveballs thrown to any player was directed at the 6'2", 282-pound Hurst, who amassed 59 tackles, 13 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks for the Wolverines in 2017.
In pre-workout medical exams, doctors found Hurst had an irregular heartbeat, which shut him down before a single press, dash or shuttle.
Per the NFL Network (via Angelique S. Chengelis of the Detroit News), Hurst insisted it was no big deal—that the same thing happened to him in Ann Arbor, and he was confident he'd be cleared ahead of Michigan's pro day.
"It was an irregular EKG. Same thing [happened] at Michigan," Hurst said. "Went through a lot of tests and got that all figured out and was cleared, so hopefully just do the same thing once I get back to school and come back for rechecks."
It's possible that will be the case. Defensive tackle Star Lotulelei went through a similar ordeal in 2013. Lotulelei was shut down at the combine, cleared in a recheck, got drafted in the first round by the Carolina Panthers and hasn't had any issues since.
However, there's also the cautionary tale of fellow tackle Nick Fairley, a 2011 first-round pick who was released by the New Orleans Saints in February after he missed the 2017 season with a heart condition.
Hurst is a Round 1 talent—a powerful, disruptive 3-technique tackle capable of stuffing the run and collapsing the pocket.
But that's a high price to pay for a player with this sort of cloud hanging over his head.
Tarvarus McFadden, CB, Florida State
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In the lead-up the 2018 combine, Zierlein graded Florida State cornerback Tarvarus McFadden as a Day 2 pick, writing, "He has starting level talent as a bump-and-run corner but may need help over the top."
That last part looked prescient after Indy.
McFadden peeled off a dismal 4.67 40-yard-dash at the combine, two full tenths of a second slower than Seminoles teammate Derwin James (who weighs 17 more pounds and plays safety).
Even if you're the type who values tape over workouts, it's hard to deny that a corner who can barely break 4.7 is a red flag.
Per Rob Rang of CBSSports.com, McFadden ran faster at Florida State's pro day. But a 4.65 won't have many scouts doing backflips.
Add it all up, and a player who was once mentioned as a top-20 prospect overall in some circles will probably be a Day 3 pick.
Still, there are reasons McFadden generated all that hype. In 2016 the 6'2", 198-pounder tied for the FBS lead with eight interceptions, which either makes him lucky or displays plus ball skills.
And while there have long been questions about his straight-line speed, McFadden looked faster than 4.67 on tape.
McFadden isn't a burner, but he has the potential to be a capable starting boundary corner. His size also opens the possibility of a move to safety, and multi-positional versatility in the secondary is all the rage.
McFadden probably won't be happy with his draft slot.
The team that selects him could be a much different story.
Ronald Jones, RB, USC
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After electing not to throw at February's combine, there was a chance that USC quarterback Sam Darnold might make an appearance at this piece. But after taking the field in the rain at USC's March 21 pro day and showing off his gun, any slide Darnold may have been has stopped.
The entire Cleveland brain trust (per ESPN's Adam Schefter) was in attendance—that's not a coincidence.
Southern Cal tailback Ronald Jones wasn't as fortunate in stopping his skid.
The 5'11", 205-pound Jones, who racked up 1,550 yards on the ground for the Trojans in 2017, pulled up lame on his first attempt at the 40-yard dash in Indianapolis with a pulled hamstring. It was hoped that the injury would heal up enough by Wednesday's pro day, but that wasn't the case.
Also, per ESPN Cleveland's Tony Grossi Jones struggled catching the ball in the rain. That isn't going to help the preception that Jones hands aren't great after catching just 14 passes in 2017.
Long story short, since the college football season ended Jones has done little to distance himself from a pack of young ball-carriers vying to be the second tailback taken after Barkley at the end of April.
At least not in a positive direction.
That doesn't mean, however, that Jones isn't a comparable talent to LSU's Derrius Guice or Georgia's Nick Chubb—just that it's looking like he may get drafted later.
That could present some fortunate squad in Round 3 an opportunity for big-time value.
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