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NFL Free Agency 2018: Winners, Losers and Ripple Effects of Thursday's Moves

Brad GagnonMar 15, 2018

The first full non-tampering day of NFL free agency is basically in the books.

And while Thursday was rather quiet compared to the bonkers legal tampering period that preceded it, a few teams made several key moves that could impact the market as well as the dynamics of the 2018 season. 

Who won and lost on Thursday? And how did the day's developments impact the market? Answers ahead...

All signing and contract information courtesy of Spotrac's free-agent tracker unless otherwise noted.

Thursday's Winners

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Dontari Poe
Dontari Poe

Dontari Poe

The two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle didn't get a lot of love on the open market last year. Whether it was intentional or not, he bet on himself with a one-year, $8 million deal in Atlanta. 

It worked. Poe put together a superb season for the Falcons, recording 37 quarterback pressures on 473 pass-rushing snaps while also picking up 23 defensive stops and three passes batted down in 16 starts, per Pro Football Focus. He also had 2.5 sacks.

According to Kimberley A. Martin of the Washington Post, the 27-year-old is replacing Star Lotulelei on the Carolina Panthers with a three-year, $27 million deal. 

Daniel Kilgore

The veteran center was traded to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday only a few weeks after signing a contract extension with the San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco's interior offensive line had become crowded, whereas Miami has a crystal-clear vacancy at center following Mike Pouncey's release—a move ESPN's Adam Schefter reported. 

Oh, and as Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio points out, Kilgore will save more than $300,000 by moving from California, which has a state income tax of 13.3 percent, to Florida, which has no state income tax at all. 

A 29-year-old running back coming off back-to-back seasons in which he averaged a disgusting 2.9 yards per carry when he wasn't hurt or suspended somehow convinced someone to pay him to continue to play professional football. His one-year deal with the Oakland Raiders is a hell of a feat.

Getting cut in Green Bay might have been a blessing in disguise for the veteran wide receiver. He was only guaranteed another $9.3 million from the Packers, but he signed a two-year, $15 million pact with $13 million guaranteed in Oakland. 

That's a lot of guaranteed green for a soon-to-be 33-year-old coming off a bad season. 

Zach Brown

When he didn't sign immediately Wednesday, one wondered if the 28-year-old former Pro Bowler would have trouble fetching a contract as lucrative as those signed by linebackers Nigel Bradham ($40 million over five years with Philadelphia), Anthony Hitchens ($45 million over five years with Kansas City), Demario Davis ($24 million over three years with New Orleans) and Avery Williamson ($22.5 million over three years with the Jets). 

Still, Brown signed a deal to return to Washington that is identical to the one Davis agreed to with the Saints. Non-rushing linebackers continue to get paid. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars

Austin Seferian-Jenkins has the ability to be an every-down tight end. That won't likely be necessary in Jacksonville, but he'll have a chance to play a significant role and potentially even prove he's worthy of taking over for the 33-year-old Marcedes Lewis. 

At $10 million over two years—numbers NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported—that's a coup. A total of 21 tight ends make more than that $5 million average annual salary, which indicates the Jags got good value for a talented 25-year-old coming off his best season. 

Thursday's Losers

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Michael Crabtree
Michael Crabtree

Now that Nelson's joined the Raiders, Crabtree is gone, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Hitting free agency after all of the big-time cash has been handed out is far from ideal, especially if you're on the wrong side of 30. 

Now Crabtree might have to fight with Jordan Matthews, 25, and Terrelle Pryor, 28, for scraps.

Incumbent Raiders running backs

Martin could cut into carries that otherwise might have belonged to Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard and/or DeAndre Washington. Clearly, new head coach Jon Gruden wasn't satisfied with the status quo in the offensive backfield. 

The Oakland Raiders

They probably overpaid Nelson, and by adding him and Martin and subtracting Crabtree they got older while saving little money. The 30-year-old Crabtree was coming off a much better season than Nelson (more catches, yards and touchdowns in fewer games), and he was due to make a similar salary over the next two years. 

Marcedes Lewis

You'd have to think the soon-to-be 34-year-old's chances of landing a contract extension beyond 2018 took a hit when the Jaguars signed tight ends Niles Paul and Seferian-Jenkins in the last 24 hours. Lewis caught just 50 percent of the 48 passes thrown his way in 2017. 

Tyler Eifert

Two years removed from a Pro Bowl campaign, the 27-year-old tight end had to settle for a one-year prove-it deal with the Cincinnati Bengals. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported it has a max value of $8 million. Not surprising considering Eifert's missed 22 games the last two seasons, but still a free-agent L. 

Ripple Effects

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Sheldon Richardson
Sheldon Richardson

Crabtree hits the market

Will that complicate things for Pryor, Matthews, John Brown, Jaron Brown, Cody Latimer, Eric Decker and Mike Wallace? That second-tier group might have already been waiting for Nelson to sign somewhere after getting released, but now Crabtree might move to the front of the line. 

Where do the Saints and Seahawks go from here?

Rapoport reported the Saints were pushing hard for Nelson, while the Seahawks are cruising the market for a replacement for Paul Richardson (Rapoport noted they're bringing in Jaron Brown for a visit). The Rams, 49ers and Browns were are in on Pryor, according to NFL Network's Michael Silver, but it wouldn't be surprising to see New Orleans and/or Seattle join that fray. 

Will Jalen Richard or DeAndre Washington hit the market late as well?

Martin (29) and Lynch (31) are football old, but Lynch doesn't appear to be going anywhere. That could mean one of the young guys is getting the ax. Washington, 25, had a rough year, but Richard averaged 4.9 yards per carry. At the age of 24, he could be a hot trade commodity. 

What does Poe's deal mean for Sheldon Richardson?

Poe's $9 million annual average salary set this year's market at the defensive tackle position. That might not be ideal for Sheldon Richardson, who is looking for $15 million per season, according to Garafolo (via Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times).

Richardson is capable of a lot more than Poe, but he wasn't drastically better than him in 2017. Not sure he's worth $6 million extra per year, which is why he could have to settle for the $11 million salary the Seahawks reportedly have on the table. 

Will stay-at-home linebackers continue to get paid?

They don't rush the passer often and don't prevent big plays by covering receivers deep, but Brown, Bradham, Williamson, Hitchens and Davis made big bucks. Will lingering free-agent linebackers Tahir Whitehead, Preston Brown, Kevin Minter and NaVorro Bowman also cash in?

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