Day 3 Diamonds in the Rough Who Emerged at the NFL Scouting Combine
Most teams spend Day 3 of the NFL draft looking to check one of two items off their shopping lists. They either need reinforcements and depth at a position, or they're looking to uncover mid- to late-round gems who, with a little bit of guidance and development, can mature into quality starters.
Preferably teams can achieve both of those goals with one pick. The dream scenario is a Day 3 prospect who can be trusted to play a reserve role early, and who grows into a reliable every-down player in two or three years.
Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett has followed that path after he was selected in the fifth round in 2015. Similarly, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs, a 2015 fifth-round pick who came off the board shortly after Jarrett, has put together two straight seasons with 800-plus receiving yards and tied for the team lead in 2017 with eight touchdown catches.
The search for another diamond in the rough like Jarrett or Diggs kicked into high gear during the scouting combine.
With the running, jumping, more jumping and bench pressing long over, we can look at potential Day 3 (rounds four to seven) draft sleepers with clear eyes. So let's do that, starting with a defensive tackle from the land of the "always enjoyable giant inflatable beaver."
Nathan Shepherd, Defensive Tackle
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Nathan Shepherd, who hails from Ontario, Canada, was pushed around as an undersized defensive end at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver back in 2011. Then he was out of football for two years, finding work at a plant nursery, in electrical construction and in a boxing factory—all while continuing to pack on weight.
Eventually he resumed chasing his football dream at Division II Fort Hayes State, where Shepherd ascended quickly, finishing 2017 with 38 tackles (12.5 for a loss) and four sacks.
His meteoric rise has meant that, as of December 2017, Shepherd wasn't ranked in the top 20 Canadians by the Canadian Football League's scouting bureau, as John Kryk of the Toronto Sun noted.
He continued to soar at the combine by running the 40-yard dash in 5.09 seconds, a solid result for a bulked-up defensive lineman (6'5", 315 pounds), and by standing out in the position drills with his power and fluid movement.
"He has no fat whatsoever," said NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah. "In the drills you could see the quickness, and when he got to the bags you could see the power of his punch."
Shepherd has a chance to climb all the way up to Day 2, though his small-school status will likely see him still available on the final day of the draft.
His new team will be getting a bit of a project in need of grooming at a higher level. But if he gets the proper coaching, Shepherd could be one of the draft's best steals.
Kalen Ballage, Running Back
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Prior to the combine at least one scout was feeling bold about Kalen Ballage.
"Mark this down," an NFC director of college scouting said to NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein. "Nobody will be talking about him until he gets to the Combine where he will lift well, run well and jump out of the stadium. Then, he'll be the hot name."
Ballage, the 6'1", 227-pound running back out of Arizona State, fulfilled some of those promises, and now we've gone from whispering about him to at least having an audible conversation.
He needed to establish himself and pop out at the combine after a collegiate career filled with pedestrian production (a single-season high of only 669 rushing yards). Ballage had to show he's better than those numbers indicate.
His 40-yard dash time of 4.46 seconds (tied for third-best among running backs) is fast and potentially painful when that speed translates over to the field. Ballage further showed off his lower-body power and explosion with a 122-inch broad jump, and displayed impressive agility with a 6.91-second three-cone drill.
All of those test results demonstrate his tools to be a thumping runner at the next level, or at the very least a quality short-yardage and goal-line back who can hit holes with speed and plow his way forward. Ballage scored 20 rushing touchdowns over his final two seasons at ASU, and also showed skill as a pass-catcher with 469 receiving yards in 2016.
Keke Coutee, Wide Receiver
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There will always be a home in the NFL for turbo-charged receivers. But if they lack either weight or physicality, they might have to wait until Day 3 of the draft to hear their name.
This fate likely awaits Keke Coutee, who solidified his status as a grass-burner at the combine with a 4.43 40-yard dash. That speed made him a dominant slot receiver for Texas Tech, especially in 2017, when he finished with 1,429 yards (fourth in the nation) on 93 receptions (sixth) with 10 touchdowns.
His size (5'11", 180 lbs) and durability concerns, as well as questions about his ability to match up against the NFL's larger cornerbacks, could lead to a Day 3 selection. Bleacher Report draft analyst Matt Miller slots Coutee in as a late fourth-round pick (126th overall) in his most recent mock draft.
A lack of size didn't hold Coutee back in 2017 when he was one of the most productive slot receivers in college football. He ranked second in the country with 1,088 yards from the slot, according to Pro Football Focus.
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Troy Apke, Safety
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At the combine we found out safety Troy Apke can "run run."
That was the breathless reaction from Deion Sanders, who acted as though he had witnessed a man walking on water instead of just running really fast. With a time of 4.34 seconds, Apke led all safeties, and ensured both Sanders and the rest of us won't be forgetting his name.
Apke came into the combine as a fringe prospect in need of a splash. There simply isn't much college tape to evaluate after he spent only one season as a full-time starter at Penn State, recording 55 tackles and an interception in 2017. That's why Zierlein had him pegged as a seventh-round talent, or possibly a priority free agent.
But his name has been sparkling more throughout the predraft evaluation process, which started when Apke was named the MVP of the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl.
The former Nittany Lion has demonstrated enough athletic upside to go early in Day 3, then start immediately on special teams as he develops.
B.J. Hill, Defensive Tackle
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There are always a handful of prospects who seem to defy the basic laws of sports science, posting numbers at the combine that shouldn't be possible at their size.
That applies to running back Saquon Barkley, who should top everyone's list of unfairly gifted athletes in the 2017 draft. Then further down is B.J. Hill, the defensive tackle from North Carolina State who finished his collegiate career with eight sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss.
Hill is a powerful presence on the interior while standing 6'4" and weighing 311 pounds. But he becomes downright intimidating with a 4.99 40. At that size, anything under five seconds shows acceleration and lower-body burst that's difficult to contain. Further evidence of those traits showed up in Jones' 10-yard split of 1.74 seconds.
Hill's 35 bench-press reps placed him third at his position too, and then he went on to shine in the position drills. He impressed during the Senior Bowl as well, especially early on in the week when he was penetrating deep into the backfield during practice.
His low sack total in recent seasons (just two since 2016) could limit Hill's draft ceiling. But if he's available on Day 3, a team with an interior need can pounce on an intriguing prospect.
Oren Burks, Linebacker
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NFL defensive coordinators place a greater value on position versatility now with the increasing use of hybrid players who can, for example, play both safety and cornerback.
Or in Oren Burks' case, both safety and linebacker.
He has more experience with the latter position, which is where Burks played during his final two seasons at Vanderbilt. Over that time he recorded 139 tackles, 4.5 sacks, two interceptions and nine passes defensed. Prior to that he played safety for the Commodores, peaking in 2015 with three interceptions (he snatched five in total throughout his collegiate career).
He has the coverage experience to hold up well as a pass defender, and can play both inside and outside as a linebacker. Burks also possesses the athletic tools to be a movable weapon, and his 4.59-second 40-yard dash ranked seventh among linebackers. Even better, a 39.5-inch vertical placed him second among linebackers, while a 131-inch broad jump led the position.
Burks will probably still be around late into Day 3 because he lacks experience at any one position. But he's an ideal fit for a creative defensive coaching staff.
Desmond Harrison, Offensive Tackle
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Desmond Harrison doesn't move like an offensive tackle. At 6'6", 288 pounds with a 4.90 40, he seems more like an oversized tight end.
But he is an offensive tackle who should be steadily climbing up draft boards after an impressive showing at the combine. Harrison continued to show his movement in the position drills, especially with an effortless kick slide.
Harrison is surely being studied under a magnifying glass now, though his rising draft outlook still might be capped on the high end of Day 3, making him a promising developmental prospect.
Some doubts and concerns will linger because he didn't face much high-caliber competition playing for West Georgia, he was suspended by the University of Texas twice and he was out of football for two years before eventually transferring.
Jordan Thomas, Cornerback
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For Day 3 prospects the goal at the combine is to send scouts scrambling back to the game film, searching for something they may have missed. More simply, the goal is to get noticed and make a talent evaluator curious enough to either do more homework or doubt the work they've already done.
Cornerback Jordan Thomas accomplished that with his record-setting time in the three-cone drill, a great measure of football-specific agility. His 6.28 shattered the previous mark of 6.42, as Rotoworld's Josh Norris noted.
Thomas sputtered a bit in the 40-yard dash with a time of 4.64, but he posted a 38-inch vertical jump and 124-inch broad jump.
His rise into Day 3 of the draft depends on how much his display at the combine can overshadow some recent on-field struggles.
Thomas excelled early in his time with the Oklahoma Sooners, especially in 2015 when he snatched five interceptions. However, he was indecisive too often in coverage to end his collegiate career, which contributed to chunk plays allowed and an average of 21.6 yards per completion, per Zierlein.
He still has the raw athletic skill to (at worst) be a steady NFL contributor, which he showed early with the Sooners and again at the combine. The difficulty ahead for interested teams lies in figuring out exactly how much of Thomas' poor 2017 can be tossed aside.
Dylan Cantrell, Wide Receiver
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The Dylan Cantrell hype train went from sitting idly at the station to whizzing by at mach speed.
The only mediocre showing for Cantrell came in the 40-yard dash with his time of 4.59. But he soared in every other area, posting the best 20- and 60-yard shuttle times among wide receivers (4.03 and 10.85), in addition to the top three-cone drill time (6.56), and third-place finishes in the broad jump (130 inches) and vertical jump (38.5 inches).
All that led to a the best SPARQ score at his position (137.6), according to Three Sigma Athlete, which places him in the 97th percentile among NFL receivers.
His lack of top-end speed could still hurt his draft outlook. There are plenty of equally talented athletes who will line up across from the former Texas Tech Red Raider, and being able to consistently separate deep is critical for NFL success.
However, the right coach in the right system can maximize Cantrell's natural ability and put him in the right position to far outperform his likely Day 3 draft slot.
Justin Jackson, Running Back
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At 6'0", 192 pounds Justin Jackson's size is serviceable, though certainly not overwhelming as a running back. His combine formula, then, was to make his size seem more intimidating with a speedy 40-yard dash.
The Northwestern workhorse did just that with his time of 4.52 seconds. Then he continued to dazzle by showing off his change-of-direction ability in the three-cone drill with an impressive 6.81 seconds.
Jackson leaned on his combination of both straight-line and lateral speed to post three straight seasons with 1,300-plus rushing yards at Northwestern. He also recorded three years with double-digit touchdowns, and crossed the goal line 42 times overall for the Wildcats.
His size could lead to a lower draft slot, but as Zierlein noted, durability might be an even greater concern after the pounding Jackson had to endure in college. He's one of just two players over the last 20 years to log 1,100-plus carries in his collegiate career.
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