Spring Training 2018: Buying or Selling MLB's Biggest Early Performances
Teams in Major League Baseball haven't even played a week's worth of spring training games yet. So, it's a tad early to try to draw serious conclusions from the action.
But, come on. What are we supposed to do? Not talk about what's happening?
As early as it may be, there are already some attention-grabbing performances that are worth a closer look. Our goal here is to play a quick game of "Buy or Sell" with eight (five hitters, two pitchers, one hitter/pitcher) in particular.
Let's take it away.
J.D. Davis, 3B, Houston Astros
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J.D. Davis is a minor league third baseman who has the unenviable task of finding a way around Alex Bregman to land a spot on the Houston Astros' big league roster.
He's certainly helping his cause this spring. In 12 plate appearances spanning four games, he's homered twice and put together a 1.417 OPS.
Hitting for power is nothing out of the ordinary for Davis. He's a big dude at 6'3", 225 pounds, and he's put his size to work hitting 88 homers across four minor league seasons, plus another four in 25 games with the Astros last season.
However, the Astros also got a taste of the 24-year-old's major flaws: his tendency to swing and miss (29.4 K%) and his tendency to hit the ball on the ground (60.5 GB%). The latter is a particularly damning mark on a slugger's profile.
It's therefore good news that Davis has struck out only twice and hit three ground balls this spring. And to the naked eye (see here and here), he does look like a hitter who's trying to get under the ball more consistently.
If so, Davis is following the same blueprint that many hitters have taken to extra home runs in recent years. It has the potential to fully unlock his power, which could force Houston to find a job for him.
Verdict: Buy
Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
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Blake Swihart was supposed to be The Next Big Thing™ for the Boston Red Sox once upon a time. Then came a severe ankle injury in 2016, and that appeared to be that.
Or was it?
The 25-year-old catcher/utility man has made 14 trips to the plate and built an 1.417 OPS on five hits and two walks. Four of his hits have gone for extra bases: three doubles and a home run.
This calls to mind that Swihart's bat used to be considered perhaps his best asset. Most notably, he hit .321 in the minors in 2015 before getting called to the majors, where he hit a solid .274 in 84 games. After he hurt his left ankle early in 2016, however, he was basically barred from hitting like that.
"I couldn't sit on my back side very well hitting left-handed, so I was coming out of my swing, and you saw last year, I struggled," Swihart said in January, according to Ian Browne of MLB.com.
But even if Swihart is healthy again, his early spring performance feels like an over-promise that's bound to be followed by an under-delivery.
Hitting for power wasn't his thing even when he was garnering praise as a prospect. There's not yet enough evidence that that's changed. One of his doubles was a Green Monster wall-scraper. His homer was a line drive that barely left the yard. And the pitchers he's touched up include Dietrich Enns, Gabriel Ynoa, Jose Mesa and Johnny Hellweg.
That's not exactly an impressive group.
Verdict: Sell
Franchy Cordero, OF, San Diego Padres
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Franchy Cordero is one of the most interesting players that the average fan probably doesn't know about.
The 23-year-old has been in the San Diego Padres organization since 2012. And while he isn't considered a top prospect, he at least has the tools to be one. He's a well-above-average runner who also has more pop than you'd expect from a slender 6'3", 175-pound outfielder.
Cordero got a chance to show his tools in the majors last year and didn't disappoint. As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs pointed out, he led the Padres in average sprint speed and average exit velocity.
So the inside-the-park homer that Cordero hit on Monday? That was sort of him in a nutshell. And that's one of only two homers he's hit this spring en route to a 1.429 OPS in five games.
"He flies, and he's got pop," Padres manager Andy Green said, per MLB.com's AJ Cassavell. "Those are two huge tools he has."
But underneath all of Cordero's tools is a problem that's not unfamiliar with toolsy prospects: too many strikeouts and not enough walks.
He made progress with changing that in the Dominican Winter League, drawing 22 walks and whiffing just 39 times in 50 games. But with five strikeouts and three walks this spring, his progress has slowed.
Verdict: Sell
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Matt Davidson, 3B, Chicago White Sox
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With two homers and a 1.783 OPS through four games, Matt Davidson is hitting like a guy who's out to prove he's not an afterthought in the Chicago White Sox's ongoing rebuild.
This is coming on the heels of a 2017 season that was bittersweet for the 26-year-old. On the one hand, he seized an opportunity at regular playing time by slugging 26 home runs. On the other, his .711 OPS was second-lowest to Rougned Odor among all hitters who topped 25 homers.
Davidson's biggest problem was how often he struck out. He whiffed in 37.2 percent of his plate appearances. Among all hitters who went to the plate at least 400 times, only Keon Broxton did worse.
Davidson did improve as the year went along, however. He went from a 41.2 K% in the first half to a 31.7 K% in the second half. He told reporters that he wants to improve even further this year, specifically in regard to his pitch selection and strike-zone awareness.
"Nowadays, there are so many numbers out there," he said. "All you have to do is basically look on the Internet and it'll tell you [what you need to know]."
So far, so good. Davidson has walked twice and struck out only once this spring. That's the sound of a corner being turned.
Verdict: Buy
Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
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Jason Kipnis has only played in three games this spring. Even for an exercise like this one, that would ordinarily constitute a sample size too small for a second look.
But in this case, it's hard to look away given that the Cleveland Indians veteran needed just five at-bats to become the first player of the spring to get to three homers.
Two of these came off Yusmeiro Petit and David Hernandez, who are perfectly capable major league pitchers. The other came off Chris Bassitt, a less capable pitcher who nonetheless has a decent enough 4.13 ERA over 143.2 MLB innings.
Evidently, Kipnis is feeling healthy after being limited to 90 games and a .705 OPS by recurring hamstring trouble in 2017. He's on the field, for one. For two, his lower half looked nice and sturdy on the homer he hit off Hernandez.
The trick going forward will be for the 30-year-old to stay healthy. He doesn't have the cleanest injury history and has already been waylaid by a back issue this spring. Any more of that, and his hot start to the exhibition season will quickly fade from memory.
But if he does stay healthy, he can remind everyone that he's a pretty good player. After all, he's twice been an All-Star and isn't far removed from an .811 OPS and 23 homers in 2016.
Verdict: Buy
Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox
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Want to know why there aren't more pitchers under this particular microscope? Because too few have logged much work this spring. Even fewer have done anything to stand out.
Michael Kopech is an exception to the second rule.
With Forrest Whitley suspended and Brent Honeywell recovering from Tommy John surgery, Kopech now occupies his own island among baseball's best pitching prospects. He only added to the hype in his spring debut against the Oakland A's on Monday, striking out three and holding them scoreless through two innings.
Kopech didn't get the B-squad, either. He had to face Stephen Piscotty, Matt Olson and Brandon Moss, as well as four more hitters with major league experience: Boog Powell, Franklin Barreto, Chad Pinder and Mark Canha.
It's not surprising the 21-year-old demonstrated an ability to throw his fastball by these guys. It's a legitimate 80-grade pitch that's climbed as high as 105 mph in a game. Given his reputation for poor control, what's probably more surprising is that he didn't walk anyone.
But that was actually him picking up where he left off. After walking 15.9 percent of the batters he faced in the first half of 2017, he walked only 5.5 percent in the second half.
In all, things are looking up for Kopech.
Verdict: Buy
Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets
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There's only one way to make Kopech's spring debut look petty: Compare it to what Noah Syndergaard did in his own spring debut.
The New York Mets right-hander took the mound against the Houston Astros on Monday and proceeded to hit 100 mph on the radar gun 11 times in just two innings. When it was over, he'd struck out two batters and allowed no baserunners.
The Astros didn't let Syndergaard off easy by keeping their best hitters in the dugout. The 25-year-old had to go through George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez and Brian McCann.
If anything, it's the radar gun readings that should have everyone concerned. Pitchers are supposed to be taking it relatively easy at this point in the spring. That arguably goes double for pitchers who missed all but seven starts last year, as Syndergaard did due to a lat injury.
However, panic is not advised.
It's not out of the ordinary for Syndergaard to throw that many high-velocity fastballs in a single outing. In fact, it's perfectly ordinary. And while he didn't spend the winter bulking up like he did before last season, he's in better shape after working (per Paul Ivice of Newsday) on his flexibility.
"I didn't even feel like I was exerting a whole lot of effort," Syndergaard said of his outing, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
Verdict: Buy
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels
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Shohei Ohtani isn't here because he's lighting up spring training leaderboards. He's here because this is the first real chance to analyze a guy who's trying to be MLB's best two-way player since Babe Ruth.
So far, it could be going better. Or worse.
The Los Angeles Angels' 23-year-old phenom was mostly bad against the Milwaukee Brewers in his pitching debut last Saturday. He struggled to get the ball over the plate and twice got hurt when he did. He served up a long double to Jonathan Villar and a long homer to Keon Broxton.
Since Ohtani's fastball came with pre-existing concerns regarding its straightness, the fact that both of those hits came on fastballs can't be swept under the rug.
One bright side, according to Maria Guardado of MLB.com, is that Ohtani's heat topped out at 97 mph. He also featured some filthy secondaries, including his trademark splitter and a slow curveball.
Another bright side is how he he looked at the plate in his hitting debut. He was equal parts comfortable and impressively picky in drawing two walks and collecting a base hit.
All told, the fairest conclusion here is "Inconclusive." But since Ohtani's underlying talent showed through just enough on both sides of the ball, we'll do him the courtesy of leaning toward the positive.
Verdict: Buy
Spring training stats courtesy of MLB.com. Other stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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