Fantasy Baseball 2018 Cheat Sheet: Pinpointing Top Sleepers and Busts
Fantasy baseball, like the real world, is all about hitting on your early picks to have success. Teams rarely win championships without superstars on the rosters.
Yet even with at least one superstar, every fantasy team needs to have depth. It's no secret the Major League Baseball season is a grind, testing even the most strong-willed athletes over the course of 162 games.
Building a fantasy roster is all about avoiding the lull MLB teams go through at some point in the season. Doing that requires identifying and hitting on your mid- and late-round draft picks to complement a first-round pick like Mike Trout of the Los Angeles or Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros.
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As final preparations are made for your fantasy draft, here are the sleepers and busts worth keeping an eye on in the war room.
Position Player Sleeper: Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners
There is a dearth of fantasy production from catchers. The best players at the position are excellent and should be drafted early.
Gary Sanchez of the New York Yankees, Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants and Willson Contreras of the Chicago Cubs are going to post big numbers. After that trio, though, there isn't a lot of offense to be found.
Per FanGraphs, only four catchers had enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title last season. From that group, Sanchez was the only one with more than 19 home runs.
Mike Zunino of the Seattle Mariners didn't make that list with 435 plate appearances, but he finished third in home runs (25) among all catchers. His .509 slugging percentage ranked second behind Sanchez (.531).
There are reasons to believe 2017 wasn't just a one year anomaly for Zunino. The 26-year-old hit 22 homers in 131 games during the 2014 season, though he only posted a .199/.254/.404 slash line. He had 12 homers in 2016.
Per Fantasy Pros, Zunino is the No. 10 catcher with an average draft position of 181.
Given the overall lack of depth at catcher, being able to nab Zunino at the end of the 20th round in a standard 10-team league would be incredible value for a player with his power potential.
Position Player Bust: Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Angels
Expectations for Shohei Ohtani are so high, both in reality and fantasy, that he could end up as a disappointment in 2018 even if he has a solid season.
From a fantasy perspective, Ohtani isn't being overdrafted. He's ranked as the No. 18 designated hitter, sandwiched between Cleveland Indians prospect Francisco Mejia, who is starting the season in Triple-A, and Pedro Alvarez of the Baltimore Orioles.
It makes sense Ohtani's fantasy stock would be that low since the Los Angeles Angels could have their prized prospect start this season in the minors.
The scouting reports for Ohtani paint a better picture than that. MLB.com notes he has "top-of-the-scale raw power" with the potential to hit .270 with 30 homers.
That adds to the excitement around Ohtani, but Los Angeles Angels manager Mike Scioscia has already told the press the 23-year-old will primarily pitch.
Even though Ohtani will get a chance to hit, it's impossible to assess his immediate value with the bat until the Angels' plan is put into action. If you are in a dynasty league, he's absolutely worth an early-round choice.
But for owners in standard leagues this season, Ohtani's value as a hitter isn't worth reaching for to get him in your lineup.
Pitcher Sleeper: Tyler Chatwood, SP, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs' three-year deal with Tyler Chatwood was a big surprise because he didn't have a particularly good 2017 season with the Colorado Rockies.
In 33 appearances last season, Chatwood posted a 4.69 ERA and had the second-highest walk rate per nine innings (4.69) among pitchers with at least 140 innings.
So what did the Cubs see in Chatwood to guarantee him three years and give him a spot in their starting rotation?
Age didn't hurt, as he turned 28 in December. Getting him out of Colorado also figures to improve his numbers.
Chatwood's ERA was significantly better on the road (3.49) than at home (6.01) last season, and he only allowed 55 hits in 77.1 innings away from Coors Field. His average fastball velocity (94.7) was the best of his career, and he generated the second-best groundball rate of his career (58.1 percent).
There are still concerns that must be taken into account as Chatwood puts on a Cubs jersey. He did allow 10 homers on the road last year, the same as he did at Coors Field.
The Cubs are banking on their outstanding defense to turn those groundballs from Chatwood into outs. They have done a terrific job remaking forgotten starters like Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks into top-of-the-rotation stars.
Fantasy owners could end up finding Chatwood available on the waiver wire after the draft is done. Fantasy Pros ranks him as the 314th-best player overall. If your rotation is lacking in the later rounds, the right-hander is worth a flier because of his past success away from Colorado.
Pitcher Bust: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
This comes with the caveat that Clayton Kershaw is worth drafting in the early rounds, though maybe not as high as most fantasy players would have you believe.
The Los Angeles Dodgers ace has an average draft position of 9.8, making him the only surefire first-round fantasy pitcher. Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber are all going in the second round.
Therein lies part of the problem with Kershaw. He's the best pitcher in the sport when he's on, but the gap between him and the aforementioned trio isn't significant enough to warrant making him a first-round pick.
Sale, Kluber and Scherzer all averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Kershaw's 10.39 last season. Kluber and Sale had lower home run rates than Kershaw's 1.18 mark.
The other significant issue with Kershaw is health. He's made fewer than 30 starts in three of the past four seasons because of back problems. The three-time NL Cy Young winner turned 30 on Monday, so his back isn't likely to be more flexible after a decade in Major League Baseball.
Kershaw will still end up being one of the 10 most valuable pitchers in fantasy if he can throw 160-175 innings. Expecting him to hit the 200-inning barrier for the first time since 2015 requires a lot more hope and optimism than you need for a first-round pick.
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