1 Huge Fear Every MLB Contender Should Have This Spring
Spring training is here, and that means fresh hope for all the would-be contenders in Major League Baseball.
So, let's talk their greatest fears.
These fears have little to do with wins and losses during the exhibition season. They don't count, so, honestly, who cares? Rather, they have more to do with injury setbacks, performance issues and other problems that could have ramifications for the regular season.
The teams on the list include all 10 playoff squads from the 2017 season, as well as eight clubs that are obviously trying to contend in 2018. Proceeding in alphabetical order by city, let's get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks: J.D. Martinez's Absence Is Felt
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The Arizona Diamondbacks are slithering into 2018 with a huge absence in their offense: J.D. Martinez.
Although the door hasn't yet closed on Arizona re-signing the 30-year-old outfielder as a free agent, he's likely beyond the team's budget. After all, he's an elite hitter who's coming off a 1.066 OPS and 45 home runs in only 119 games.
Martinez's 2017 season culminated in a 62-game stretch in Arizona in which he put up a 1.107 OPS and 29 homers. That basically kept the club's offense afloat:
If the D-Backs hadn't traded for Martinez, the post-All-Star-break slumps of Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and David Peralta might have sunk the club's postseason chase. So, the reality that a viable alternative to Martinez has yet to be installed ought to inspire a level of concern.
If Arizona's offense struggles to put up runs this spring, the level of concern will only be heightened.
Boston Red Sox: David Price's Elbow Acts Up Again
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With the New York Yankees alive and well elsewhere in the AL East, the Boston Red Sox will need their $217 million man to earn his money if they want to keep up in 2018.
David Price will only be up to the task if his left elbow behaves.
It sure didn't last year, as it started barking in March and was barking again in July. As a result, Price followed his disappointing 2016 season with a 2017 season in which he made only 16 appearances.
One silver lining is that Price posted a 3.38 ERA in 74.2 regular-season innings and tacked on two stellar relief appearances in the postseason. Another is that he's feeling good nowadays.
“I feel strong in both [the elbow and arm]. I had a good offseason," Price told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
Because Price is 32 years old and has over 1,800 major league innings (counting October) on his arm, however, his durability is a see-it, believe-it situation. If the proving process crumbles out of the gate like it did last spring, the Red Sox are in trouble.
Chicago Cubs: Jon Lester Gets Shelled
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In theory, the Chicago Cubs completed one of MLB's best starting rotations when they signed Yu Darvish.
In reality, their rotation will only live up to the hype if Jon Lester bounces back.
The $155 million southpaw was good in 2015 and truly excellent in 2016, when he rode a 2.44 ERA to a second-place finish in the National League Cy Young Award voting.
But in 2017, Lester slumped to a 4.33 ERA over 180.2 innings. He probably missed David Ross, who retired as Lester's personal catcher to become a pop culture icon. He certainly missed his fastball velocity, which declined from an average of 92.1 mph to 91.1 mph.
The optimistic take is that Lester is experienced and wise enough to figure things out and get back to being a No. 1-type starter who can match up with anyone.
But since he's 34 years old, it may be just as likely that 2017 was his first step into the twilight of his career. Any struggles he endures this spring could indicate he's one step closer to the end.
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Cleveland Indians: More Injury Setbacks for Michael Brantley
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Not unlike they did in 2017, the Cleveland Indians seem poised to roll unchallenged to another AL Central title in 2018.
Even still, it wouldn't hurt to have a healthy Michael Brantley.
The 30-year-old outfielder was Cleveland's best player in 2014 and 2015, when he put up a .319/.382/.494 slash line and 10.2 wins above replacement. Alas, serious shoulder and ankle injuries have limited him to just 101 games since then.
Brantley did hit well (.299/.357/.444) in the 90 games he was able to play in last year. And in December 2017, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reported that Brantley was progressing well from an October operation on his right ankle.
After all Brantley has been through, however, a return to 100 percent health shouldn't be taken for granted. And if he suffers any setbacks this spring, Cleveland might have to open the season with an outfield of Jason Kipnis, Bradley Zimmer and Lonnie Chisenhall.
Or, if you prefer: a natural second baseman, a strikeout-prone youngster and a platoon hitter.
Colorado Rockies: Their Super-Bullpen Flops
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The 2017 Colorado Rockies boasted arguably the best pitching staff in the team's history. That had much to do with a deep and talented bullpen that took pressure off of a young rotation.
For 2018, the Rockies are essentially doubling down on this approach.
Greg Holland is gone but has been replaced by an upgrade in $52 million right-hander Wade Davis. The Rockies also signed righty Bryan Shaw and retained lefty Jake McGee for $27 million each, and otherwise still have Chris Rusin, Adam Ottavino and Mike Dunn.
That, folks, is an expensive yet terrific-looking bullpen. As long as it lives up to its billing, the Rockies have a shot at making consecutive postseasons for the first time in franchise history.
Here's the thing about relievers, though: Their performances are fickle things. They go up, they go down, and nobody ever really knows for sure which is going to happen in a given season.
All the Rockies can do is hope for the best. And if the best doesn't materialize immediately during the spring, they could be left wondering if they should have taken a different approach to 2018.
Houston Astros: The Dreaded 'World Series Hangover' Takes Root
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It's hard to view the Houston Astros as anything other than the most super of all the MLB superteams.
They won 101 games and the World Series last year, yet are going into 2018 with even more firepower. Justin Verlander is in for a full year, and coming aboard are Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith and Hector Rondon.
However, there's no hangover like a World Series hangover.
No World Series champion has repeated since the 1998-2000 Yankees, and quite a few recent champs have suffered serious regressions the following season. Grim fates, to be sure.
Astros manager A.J. Hinch doesn't want his guys to be next. As he told Richard Justice of MLB.com:
"One thing I've learned from talking to coaches inside our sport and outside our sport is the perceived [championship] hangover is as much mental as physical. I want our guys to be ready to play on Opening Day. If you limp into spring, you're going to limp into the season. If you limp into the season, you're going to find yourself playing uphill the rest of the year."
There's the talk. Now all everyone needs to see is the walk.
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani Flops...On Both Sides of the Ball
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Shohei Ohtani has all the talents of a guy created in a "Custom Player" mode in a video game.
He's a big righty with a 100 mph fastball and electric secondary offering and a fearsome slugger who can hit the ball a mile. As evidence that these abilities can support two-way stardom, see his 2.52 ERA and .859 OPS from his days in Nippon Professional Baseball.
What's less awesome is that Ohtani also has all the MLB experience of a "Custom Player" player.
The announcement that he'll be part of a six-man rotation answers one question, but there are still many questions that Ohtani must answer in his first spring training with the Los Angeles Angels. Such as: How will he handle juggling pitching and hitting duties. And: How will he fare at either one?
The worst-case scenario is that the Ohtani experiment won't even get off the drawing board this spring. That could happen if double-duty breaks his body down or if MLB's hitters and pitchers expose either his arm or bat as needing a lot of work.
Can the Angels contend without a fully functioning Ohtani? They should be good enough, yes. But any guy who can help on both sides of the ball can make such a process a lot easier.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw's Back Acts Up Again
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are going into 2018 with something of a stripped-down version of the team that won 104 games and the NL pennant last season. But at least they still have Clayton Kershaw.
That is, as long as his health doesn't have other ideas.
By some measures, the last four seasons represent Kershaw's Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band. He's pitched to a 1.99 ERA and struck out exactly 800 more batters (914) than he's walked (114).
The only thing that's held him back is, well, his back. Due to a series of injuries, the lefty has made over 30 starts just once since 2014.
On the bright side, none of these problems has been serious enough to require surgery. And at least for now, they've tended to occur later in the summer.
But with Kershaw due to turn 30 on March 19, there's no escaping the question of whether his body might soon struggle to keep further back trouble at bay. If so, an already stripped-down team could be forced to begin the year without one of baseball's best pitchers.
Milwaukee Brewers: They'll Feel Their Need for an Ace
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The Milwaukee Brewers were good enough to win 86 games last year. The additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to their outfield should be enough to keep them there in 2018.
Now all they need is a proper ace.
Chase Anderson is a sneaky candidate for the job after breaking out with a 2.74 ERA last year. But that was over just 141.1 innings, so there's still one big unknown there. Otherwise, neither Zach Davies nor Jhoulys Chacin nor Yovani Gallardo nor Junior Guerra is ace material. Jimmy Nelson might be if he returns strong from shoulder surgery, but that's not expected to be until June.
The Brewers clearly know this. You can't spend more than five seconds on their MLB Trade Rumors page before seeing the latest on their search for outside help. That figures to continue after they missed out on Yu Darvish.
That could lead to a twofold problem if their current rotation struggles this spring. Beyond threatening further struggles in the regular season, it would also be no help to their leverage in whatever negotiations they're involved in.
If that results in their whiffing on adding an ace, an improvement on 86 wins may not be in the cards.
Minnesota Twins: Ervin Santana's Absence Is Felt
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The Minnesota Twins are sort of in the same boat as the Brewers, except theirs is even leakier.
They're coming off an 85-win season and are positioned to be wild-card contenders again in 2018. That position was a lot stronger, however, when their rotation had a healthy Ervin Santana.
The veteran recently underwent surgery on his right middle finger. He's expected to need 10 to 12 weeks to recover, meaning he might not make it back until May.
With Santana sidelined, the rest of the Twins rotation consists of Jose Berrios (who's good), Kyle Gibson (who's OK) and then three question marks. As such, their own MLB Trade Rumors page figures to be as filled with ace-related rumors as the Brewers' in coming weeks.
Given their current situation, the Twins don't have a ton of negotiating leverage to begin with. But if their rotation indeed looks the part of a broken unit desperately in need of a major fix during the exhibition season, their leverage will get even worse.
If nothing materializes, even getting back to 85 wins will be a challenge.
New York Mets: Injuries Befall Their Starting Rotation Again
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Frequent visits from the injury bug are the last thing any team needs. But after what they went through in 2017, this goes double for the New York Mets.
They were an injured wreck all season, particularly on the mound. They cycled through 12 different starters and had just one starter (Jacob deGrom) log over 120 innings. That tied the Cincinnati Reds for the bottom spot in MLB.
The coming of a new season obviously means hope for better things in 2018. For the Mets, the hope is heightened by the reality that deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler are all healthy as spring training begins.
Then again, that's not an excuse to rest easy.
Perhaps deGrom and Syndergaard are worth counting on, but Harvey, Matz and Wheeler each come with an injury history that's both lengthy and serious. It wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world if one, two or all three break down again.
If that happens, it'll be as if the year never changed for the Mets.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge's Shoulder Becomes a Larger Concern
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In case anyone hasn't heard, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are teammates now. If 2018 is anything like 2017, that means they're ready to combine for 111 home runs.
Only if Judge's shoulder is up to the task, though.
The 25-year-old went under the knife to remove loose bodies and repair other damage to his left shoulder last November, not long after he was named AL Rookie of the Year.
That helped contextualize the deep slump that Judge went into following the 2017 All-Star break. He had a stretch where he hit just .176 with seven homers over 46 games, after which he was often seen icing his left shoulder.
By blasting 15 homers in September and four more in October, Judge seemingly put his shoulder trouble behind him. It's possible that the surgery put it behind him for good.
Or, maybe not. Judge wouldn't be the first slugger (see Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp) to suffer a power outage following shoulder surgery. As such, any struggles he contends with this spring may be more serious than trying to find his swing or get his timing right.
San Francisco Giants: They'll Look Their Age
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The San Francisco Giants' response to losing 98 games in 2017 is to go into 2018 with a whole bunch of stars.
But, man, are they old.
Buster Posey crossed the age-30 threshold last March, thereby joining a couple ol' standbys (Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford) who were already there. Brandon Belt will turn 30 in April. And each of the Giants' three new additions (Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen and Austin Jackson) are also there.
Meanwhile on the mound, the Giants have two aging starters (Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija) and an aging closer (Mark Melancon).
This wouldn't be much more than a footnote if everyone was aging gracefully. But that's not the case. Pence, Longoria and McCutchen no longer resemble their former All-Star selves. Jackson isn't an everyday player anymore. Belt, Crawford, Cueto, Samardzija and Melancon are coming off of down seasons.
If the Giants play well this spring, it'll be fair to wonder if they're onto something by going old when everyone else is going young. Alternatively, they could play poorly and make the idea look even riskier than it already does.
Seattle Mariners: Their Starting Rotation Is as Fragile as Advertised
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With Dee Gordon joining Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and others, the Seattle Mariners have a lineup that can excel in every phase of the game in 2018.
It's their starting rotation they need to worry about.
The team's rotation is one reason it never really got off the ground en route to 84 losses in 2017. Injuries forced the Mariners to use an MLB-high 17 different starters. Combined, they mustered just a 4.70 ERA.
The Mariners did get a solid reinforcement when they traded for Mike Leake last August, and he'll be back for more in 2018. Otherwise, they're moving forward with the same group and expecting different results. Above all, that means a return to form for Felix Hernandez and better health for James Paxton.
In both cases, they're asking a lot. King Felix has battled injuries and ineffectiveness in each of the last two years. Paxton is enormously talented yet has never been far from harm.
If things start going south right away this spring, the Mariners may find themselves wishing they'd done more to find additional reinforcements.
St. Louis Cardinals: Their Bullpen Gets Knocked Around
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The St. Louis Cardinals have a different look that includes an offense with Marcell Ozuna, a young starting rotation and a renovated bullpen.
Thing is, their renovated bullpen doesn't look better than the old one.
The solid 3.81 ERA that Cardinals relievers put up last year doesn't tell the whole story. Their struggles tended to come at bad times. The result was more "meltdowns" than all but three other teams.
Gone are Seung Hwan Oh and Trevor Rosenthal. In are Luke Gregerson, Dominic Leone and Bud Norris. The first has a long history of effective relief work. The latter two each whiffed more than 10 batters per nine innings in 2017.
Yet, uncertainty abounds. Gregerson is 34 years old in May and coming off a down year. Leone and Norris lack track records as effective relievers.
Ultimately, this feels like a bullpen that's missing at least one solid piece. That might only become more apparent throughout spring training. And by the time the Cardinals are willing to act, somebody like, say, Greg Holland, may no longer be available.
Texas Rangers: Their Spare-Parts Rotation Struggles
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There's really only one question worth asking the Texas Rangers.
Really, that's your starting rotation?
If the year were 2012 or 2013, a starting five of Cole Hamels, Martin Perez, Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore would be in the running for the best in the league. But in the year 2018, things just aren't the same.
Hamels is 34 and coming off a year in which his age caught up with him via a lengthy injury absence and a 4.20 ERA. Perez pitched to a 4.82 ERA and is now recovering from an injury of his own. Fister's stuff isn't what it once was. Minor hasn't started a major league game since 2014. Moore has never made good on the immense hype that accompanied him as a prospect.
There may be more reasons to worry about this rotation than there are to fret about any of the others mentioned in this space. Of the 18 clubs, the Rangers' rotation has the lowest projected WAR total for 2018, according to FanGraphs.
Suffice it to say, a rough showing for this bunch in spring training wouldn't allay concerns.
Toronto Blue Jays: Aaron Sanchez's Finger Problems Return
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If the Toronto Blue Jays are going to compete in 2018, they're going to need Aaron Sanchez to pitch. And if Sanchez is going to pitch, he's going to need his finger to behave.
The righty was limited to just eight starts and a 4.25 ERA in 2017 by a right middle finger that just wouldn't stop suffering from blisters and other maladies. It landed him on the disabled list four times.
Mercifully, he says he's good to go for 2018.
"I'm pretty confident that my finger, the way it is, will be fine this year," the 25-year-old said recently, per the Canadian Press (via Sportsnet). "I'll have to maintain it like I have in years past, but no more of the disaster that it had last year."
Sanchez finally achieved command of his electric mid-90s fastball and knee-buckling curveball in 2016, resulting in an AL-low 3.00 ERA. If he can get back to that in 2018, the Blue Jays will be reclaiming an ace.
Either that or his finger will start misbehaving again this spring, and they'll be in the same spot of bother that helped lead to 86 losses last year.
Washington Nationals: Daniel Murphy Suffers a Setback
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As per usual, the Washington Nationals boast a loaded roster that doesn't offer many nits to pick.
Their bullpen was a problem, but it's returning the same three guys (Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler) who ushered in a massive improvement late in 2017. Led by Max Scherzer, their rotation is star-studded. Led by Bryce Harper, ditto for their lineup.
Regarding the latter, however, that's assuming Daniel Murphy is healthy.
The veteran second baseman had microfracture surgery on his right knee last October. No timetable for his recovery was offered at the time. Murphy himself didn't offer one when he spoke to reporters, including SB Nation's Patrick Reddington, in December.
His recovery has presumably come a ways since then, but he and the Nats will still need to be careful not to push their luck this spring, lest a setback occur.
Were that to happen, the cost could be the loss of one of baseball's best hitters. Although the label hasn't always applied to Murphy, it's impossible to downplay the .334/.387/.569 slash line he's put up in two seasons in Washington.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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