Bleacher Report's MLB Experts Make Key 2018 Spring Training Predictions
Spring is in the air. In Florida and Arizona, the air is also filled with flying baseballs and the sounds of popping gloves and cracking bats.
Welcome, at long last, to spring training.
Pitchers and catchers have reported to their respective camps, with position players soon to follow. Up next are a few weeks of a little of this and a little of that, and then it'll be time for Major League Baseball to begin the 2018 regular season.
What will happen between now and then? Gather 'round and listen to myself and fellow Bleacher Report MLB experts (or "experts lol," as we'll be referred to in the comments) Danny Knobler, Joel Reuter and Jacob Shafer share our predictions.
Ahead are our answers to 13 questions that cover loose ends from MLB's abnormally slow offseason, as well as standard spring training fare such as position battles, players and teams to keep an eye on.
Which Remaining Free Agent Will Sign the Biggest Contract?
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Knobler: J.D. Martinez
He probably won't ever see the $200 million he reportedly wanted, but he'll get paid for his power.
Reuter: Eric Hosmer
Assuming we're talking total money and not annual salary, Hosmer looks like the smart answer here. He has a pair of seven-year offers from the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals to choose from, and now that Yu Darvish is signed, I'm not sure anyone else is going to get a deal longer than five years.
Rymer: Eric Hosmer
Although Martinez is the best player available, he's probably only going to land a contract to his liking if the Boston Red Sox start bidding against themselves. Hosmer's market isn't exactly popping either, to be sure. But if it's true about those seven-year offers, he's bound to pull in a greater overall haul than Martinez.
Shafer: J.D. Martinez
Eventually, the Red Sox will blink in this epic staring contest and give Martinez nine figures. They simply need power too much after finishing last in the AL in home runs and watching the rival New York Yankees grab Giancarlo Stanton.
Which Big-Name Free Agent Will Still Be Unemployed on Opening Day?
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Knobler: Lance Lynn
Maybe the free-agent pitchers will all sign at once, but there are so many out there that it's easy to see one getting ignored. With the lack of decent rumors, Lynn could be that guy. Given the number of pitchers who get hurt, he wouldn't need to worry about staying unemployed for long, either.
Reuter: J.D. Martinez
Jeff Passan of Yahoo reported last month that at least one top free agent is willing to sit out until midseason if that's what it takes for someone to meet his asking price. There's a good chance, based on other comments he's made this offseason, Martinez was that guy.
Rymer: Lucas Duda
I get that Duda isn't a super-duper-star, but it does raise one's eyebrows that he's had better than an .800 OPS and 25 homers in three seasons out of four. All the same, there's precious little demand for first basemen out there. There will be even less after Hosmer and Logan Morrison sign.
Shafer: Carlos Gonzalez
Questions about his awful home-away splits and declining defense will scare off suitors, and he'll be forced to accept a small show-me deal once the season begins.
Who Will Sign a Long-Term Contract Extension?
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Knobler: Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
The money could be tough to work out, but given their reluctance to trade him, it seems clear the Blue Jays would love to keep Donaldson. And he keeps saying he'd like to stay.
Reuter: Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
It might seem like trading Abreu would be the more logical move for a rebuilding White Sox team, but he stepped into an important role as a mentor and leader in the clubhouse. Mike Axisa of CBS Sports suggested a four-year, $80 million extension, and that seems reasonable.
Rymer: Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
Given the way things have gone this winter, I can't help but wonder if some players might be skeptical of free agency. As a guy whose market stands to be hurt by his age (31) and ties to Coors Field, Blackmon could put down roots where he is rather than aim for the open market after 2018.
Shafer: Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
Blackmon finished fifth in NL MVP voting, and the Rockies will be motivated to lock up their center fielder. After surveying the sorry state of the market this winter, he will likely be inclined to accept.
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Who Will Be the Best Player Moved in a Trade?
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Knobler: Jake Odorizzi
Big spring training trades are unusual, and there are free-agent starters available. But if any team is going to entertain trading a top player in the spring, it might be the Tampa Bay Rays.
Reuter: Josh Harrison
I'm not convinced the Yankees are comfortable starting the season with Gleyber Torres as the everyday second baseman. That leaves utility infielder Ronald Torreyes and non-roster invitees Danny Espinosa and Jace Peterson as the leading candidates. A few weeks of watching that group could be enough to spark a trade for Harrison. Then, once Torres is ready, Harrison becomes a valuable super-utility guy.
Rymer: Josh Harrison
Harrison's name is in this space partially because the trade market is already pretty well-tapped at this point. It's also because Harrison, who wants out of Pittsburgh, is easily marketable. He can play anywhere and offers a bit of power and speed. Come get him, suitors.
Shafer: Nobody
Am I cheating by dodging the question? Maybe. But with so many quality players still dangling in free agency, it's tough to imagine a significant trade being swung.
Which Offseason Addition Will Make the Best First Impression?
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Knobler: Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
Everyone will be lining up to watch him take batting practice in Tampa, and he'll deliver.
Reuter: Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
His outgoing personality should quickly win over his new teammates, and his otherworldly power will make his batting practice an event.
Rymer: J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
Come on, we all know that Martinez is ending up in Boston. Once he does, he's going to hit a bunch of dingers for a team that hit fewer of those than any American League team in 2017.
Shafer: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
The two-way Japanese star will live up to his pedigree with some memorable moments in the Cactus League.
Which 2017 Star Will Looked Primed for a Regression?
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Knobler: J.D. Martinez
The frustrations of the winter and a likely late arrival in spring training won't help, and once he signs, he'll feel pressure to prove he was worth the money.
Reuter: Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox
If you think there's any chance Garcia can maintain a .392 BABIP—a mark that was 21 points higher than any other qualified hitter and almost 100 points above the league average—you've crossed the line from optimistic to delusional.
Rymer: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Heck, down is the only way to go after the kind of season he just had. It's also hard not to be concerned about lingering effects from the left shoulder surgery he underwent last November. He may not get back into the swing of things right away.
Shafer: Marwin Gonzalez, Houston Astros
Gonzalez posted career highs in virtually every offensive category for the champion Astros last season and garnered stray MVP votes. His batting average on balls in play was 32 points above his career mark, however, suggesting he could come back to earth in 2018.
Which 2017 Bust Will Look Primed for a Rebound?
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Knobler: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Reports suggest he's healthy, and when he's healthy, there aren't many hitters who are better. Watch out for Albert Pujols, too, because he's also apparently in great shape.
Reuter: Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians
After missing time during spring training with a shoulder injury, Kipnis never seemed to get to 100 percent last season. That said, the 30-year-old is just a year removed from posting an .811 OPS with 41 doubles and 23 home runs on his way to a 4.0 WAR. Provided he's healthy, there's no reason to think he can't return to that level.
Rymer: Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants
Melancon pitched in only 32 games last year and managed just a 4.50 ERA when he was healthy. But his key rates (strikeout, walk, soft-hit and hard-hit) were all better than average. and he's reportedly in ship shape following surgery on his forearm. He'll show he's not done being a shutdown reliever.
Shafer: Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals
After a knee injury limited him to 23 games in his first season with the Nationals, Eaton will be eager to prove himself to the Nats faithful and help Washington make a push in what may be Bryce Harper's D.C. swan song.
Which Prospect Will Steal the Show?
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Knobler: Ronald Acuna, Atlanta Braves
He stole the show in the minors last year, and did it again in the Arizona Fall League. Don’t be surprised if he’s the talk of Florida this spring.
Reuter: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
We’re considering him a prospect, right? I have a funny feeling Ohtani’s following is going to make Dice-K Mania seem tame by comparison.
Rymer: Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
Jimenez hit his way to Double-A last year and kept right on raking in the Dominican Winter League over the offseason. And when he hits, he hits. His Roy Hobbs-ian power will make for a heck of a show this spring.
Shafer: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will probably stash the heater-slinging stud in Triple-A no matter what he does this spring to avoid starting his service clock. But he'll do everything in his radar-gun-singeing power to make it a tough decision.
Which Established Player Will Break Out?
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Knobler: Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
He was a very good player for the Miami Marlins, and it's easy to see him flourishing away from what was too often a circus.
Reuter: Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres
He's a lock for a rotation spot after a strong showing as a rookie, and I think he's just scratching the surface. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and an absolutely filthy slider, he struck out 139 batters in 114.1 innings. He's a slightly improved changeup away from being a legit frontline starter.
Rymer: Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Bregman quietly put up 4.1 WAR last year and then got a much-deserved closeup in the postseason. And yet, I'm convinced we haven't seen his best. This is a guy with all the tools and, even better, an apparent desire to squeeze everything he can out of them.
Shafer: Stephen Piscotty, Oakland A's
Piscotty had a down year with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2017, but his peripheral stats suggest a degree of bad luck. After a trade to the A's, look for the 27-year-old to rebound.
What Will Be the Best AL Position Battle? Who Will Win?
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Knobler: New York Yankees Outfield/DH
Judge is going to play. Stanton is going to play. Brett Gardner is going to play. Aaron Hicks should play. Clint Frazier should get a chance. And Jacoby Ellsbury? He should probably be on another team, but he's good enough to play, too. Tough decisions for first-time manager Aaron Boone.
Reuter: New York Yankees Infield
We know Greg Bird is going to be at first and Didi Gregorius will be at shortstop. After that, the Yankees infield is a mystery. Top prospects Torres and Miguel Andujar are the best in-house options, but there's still time to make another signing or swing a trade. They could also go with guys like Espinosa, Tyler Wade and Torreyes as temporary stopgaps to buy the prospects a little more time. We'll say they trade for Harrison to play second and roll with Andujar at the hot corner.
Rymer: New York Yankees Infield
For two spots (second base and third base), the battle will be between two top prospects (Torres and Andujar) against the field (Torreyes, Wade, Espinosa, Peterson and Thairo Estrada) and also the free-agent and trade markets. My hunch is that third base will go to Andujar and second base will go to the field at least until Torres is fully ready.
Shafer: New York Yankees Outfield
Even if Judge and Stanton rotate between right field and DH, you've got Hicks, Gardner and Ellsbury vying for two spots, with youngsters such as Frazier ready to push them. Hicks and Gardner will begin the season as the center and left fielders, respectively, but expect injuries and/or trades to shift the picture.
What Will Be the Best NL Position Battle? Who Will Win?
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Knobler: Los Angeles Dodgers Outfield
Joc Pederson hit three home runs in the World Series, but there's no guarantee he makes the Opening Day lineup. Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez and Yasiel Puig are still around, and watch out for 21-year-old Alex Verdugo, who didn't make the postseason roster but could force himself into the picture this spring.
Reuter: Atlanta Braves Starting Rotation
Acuna will be the talk of Braves camp, but I'm more interested in who fills out the rotation. Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz are locks. Beyond that, it's a mix of veterans (Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir) and promising youngsters (Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb, Max Fried and Lucas Sims) competing for three starting spots and perhaps one bullpen job. We'll go with Newcomb, Gohara and a healthy Kazmir in the rotation and McCarthy in a long relief role.
Rymer: Chicago Cubs Outfield
To some degree or another, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. will all be jockeying for position this spring. Cubs skipper Joe Maddon will certainly make use of all five of them throughout the year, but it'll still be interesting to see how the pecking order shakes out.
Shafer: Los Angeles Dodgers Outfield
As deep and complete a team as the Dodgers are, their outfield is a muddled mess. Puig, the mercurial right fielder, is the closest to a sure thing, which pretty much says it all. For Opening Day at least, L.A. will roll with Pederson, Taylor and Puig from left to right.
Which Team Will Look Better Than Advertised?
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Knobler: Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies
The National League East has belonged to the Washington Nationals and New York Mets the last four years, while the Braves and Phillies were rebuilding. Now both teams could be ready to start winning.
Reuter: Oakland A's
The A's won 75 games last year and closed out the regular season with an impressive 17-7 stretch. With some good young pieces who can take another step forward and more help on the way from a deep minor league system, a winning record and wild-card relevance are not out of the question.
Rymer: Toronto Blue Jays
The 2017 Blue Jays got off to a horrendous start and were wrecked by injuries throughout the year. Yet, they still went 70-69 after April 28 and are going into 2018 with a deeper offense and a rotation that features a healthy Aaron Sanchez. Don't sleep on them.
Shafer: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have plenty of question marks, including in the rotation, and are probably at least a year away from seriously contending in the NL East. That said, they've got a lot of talented young players who will be trying to make an impression this spring.
Which Team Will Look Worse Than Advertised?
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Knobler: San Francisco Giants
They acted in the winter like a team in win-now mode with trades for Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen. But that just means they added two more guys on the wrong side of 30.
Reuter: San Francisco Giants
Losing 98 games last season was the perfect storm of awful, so there's a good chance they'll be improved from a win-loss standpoint. I still don't see a playoff contender, though. Even with the McCutchen and Longoria additions, I think they're a distant fourth in the NL West.
Rymer: Houston Astros
They won 101 games and the World Series last year, and they are going into this year with even more roster depth. But they'll still be prone to the dreaded World Series hangover, which might start setting in as they navigate a spring season wherein they have nothing to prove or figure out.
Shafer: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers gave the Cubs a surprise run for their money in the NL Central last season and revamped their outfield this winter with the additions of Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Unless they add a frontline starting pitcher, however, they could be staring up at both the Cubbies and St. Louis Cardinals.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs and MLB.com.
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