Super Bowl Odds 2018: Over/Under Line, Spread Picks for Eagles vs. Patriots

The Super Bowl is a bettor's paradise.

Although there's all sorts of money to be made on ridiculous prop bets, the spread and over/under will still garner attention.

One of the reasons why the two primary bets will have everyone's eyes on Sunday is how close the game is expected to be.

The New England Patriots enter as a 4.5-point favorite, but they have a tendency to play close games in the Super Bowl.

Picking the right side of the over/under won't be an easy task either since certain trends would lead you to believe the over and the under are the right choices.

Super Bowl Odds

Spread: New England (-4.5)

Over/Under: 48

Over/Under Prediction

If you're basing your over/under selection on what has occurred in past Super Bowls, you're most likely going with the over.

In the last three Super Bowls the Patriots have played in, the teams have combined to score 48 or more points.

Since the Baltimore Ravens beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII, four of the last five championship tilts have had more than 48 combined points, with Super Bowl 50 between the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers being the lone exception.

If you're placing your bet exclusively based on past Patriots-Eagles games in the Tom Brady era, the decision gets harder to make.

In five meetings since 2003, the combined score has reached over 48 points in each of the last three meetings, with the final score of Super Bowl XXXIX barely under at 47.

DAVID J. PHILLIP/Associated Press

When you dive into this season's results, the choice to take the over becomes clearer. In seven regular-season games against playoff opponents, the Patriots and their foes hit over 48 points.

The divisional-round win over the Tennessee Titans saw 49 points scored, while the AFC Championship triumph over the Jacksonville Jaguars featured 44 points.

In two of the Eagles' three regular-season bouts with playoff teams, over 48 points were scored, but they haven't participated in a game with more than 48 points in the postseason.

Based off his career, most bettors will rely on Brady to make up for at least half of the points in the over/under, but he won't be the quarterback to worry about.

Your final decision on the over/under may come down to how much trust you have in Eagles quarterback Nick Foles against a Patriots defense that has been statistically subpar this season.

Another factor you might want to base your wager off is the lack of Super Bowl experience Foles and Eagles head coach Doug Pederson have. If you think they'll have a conservative game plan to start, the under may be the way to go.

Prediction: Under

Spread Prediction

Every Super Bowl the Patriots have played in during the Brady-Bill Belichick era has been decided by one possession.

The average margin of victory in the seven Super Bowls in which Brady and Belichick have recorded a 5-2 record is 3.71 points. The six-point overtime victory in Super Bowl LI over the Atlanta Falcons was the largest margin of victory.

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

In fact, 18 of the 36 postseason contests the Patriots have participated in since 2001 have been decided by seven points or less.

During that same span, the Eagles have seen nine of their 20 postseason games decided by one possession.

What we're getting at here is the spread won't be an easy bet to make, and you'll most likely have to wait until the fourth quarter for the game-winning score.

By now you know the Eagles have embraced the underdog role and are not afraid of the stature of the Patriots, and you could even argue they're better equipped at certain positions.

You're also aware of how successful Brady and the Patriots have been over the last 16 years, and how difficult it is to pick against them with their track record.

However, the Eagles were able to beat the Patriots in their last meeting on December 6, 2015, behind three defensive and special teams touchdowns.

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Although the rosters have changed a bit since the Eagles' lone win over the Brady-era Patriots, there are a few holdovers from that contest, including Brady and Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins.

Even if you look at more trends to try to help your decision-making, it will leave you in a bind.

Taking the Patriots as a 4.5-point favorite might not be good enough since they've had only one Super Bowl win of more than four points.

Selecting the Eagles means you're hoping for another close Super Bowl that the Patriots win, or you're going all in on the underdog to win outright.

Prediction: Patriots (-4.5) 23, Eagles 17

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

Odds obtained from Oddsshark.com.