NFL Mock Draft 2018: Initial 1st-Round Projections Following Eagles vs. Patriots

With the Super Bowl won and the NFL season over, it's officially draft season. 

Below, you'll find my latest mock and a longer look at UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, who I've projected to be the No. 2 overall pick to the New York Giants (you can find my deep dive on my project top overall pick, Josh Allen, here). 

Mock Draft

1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

2. New York Giants: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

3. Indianapolis Colts: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston): Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

5. Denver Broncos: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

6. New York Jets: Sam Darnold, QB, USC

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Connor Williams, OT, Texas

8. Chicago Bears: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

9.* San Francisco 49ers: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

10.* Oakland Raiders: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

11. Miami Dolphins: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

12. Cincinnati Bengals: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

13. Washington: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

14. Green Bay Packers: Marcus Davenport, DE/OLB, UTSA

15. Arizona Cardinals: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

16. Baltimore Ravens: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

18. Seattle Seahawks: Arden Key, DE/OLB, LSU

19. Dallas Cowboys: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

20. Detroit Lions: Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College

21. Buffalo Bills: Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas

22. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City): Vita Vea, DT, Washington

23. Los Angeles Rams: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

24. Carolina Panthers: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

25. Tennessee Titans: Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa

26. Atlanta Falcons: Derwin James, S, Florida State

27. New Orleans Saints: Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State

28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

30. Minnesota Vikings: Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan

31. New England Patriots: Carlton Davis, CB, Auburn

32. Philadelphia Eagles: Billy Price, G/C, Ohio State

Oakland and San Francisco will flip a coin to determine the Nos. 9 and 10 picks.

Analysis

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Whether Eli Manning is the starting quarterback for the New York Giants or not next season, the team can't pass up this opportunity to select their quarterback of the future. Based on my mock, that player is Rosen.

There's no doubting Rosen's talent. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. called him "the top pure passer in this class," adding that "he has rare arm talent and has been much more secure with the ball than [Sam] Darnold and [Josh] Allen."

B/R's Matt Miller, meanwhile, wrote of Rosen: "He has the prettiest mechanics and accuracy of any quarterback in this class. Sure, he's a little brash, but he's also a leader and a natural passer with the highest floor of all this year's signal-callers."

More on that brashness later. Let's keep singing Rosen's praises for a bit.

"Just so natural in everything he does on the field," an NFC coach told Dan Graziano of ESPN.com. "You watch him in the pocket and it's like he was born to do it. The way he sees the field, the way he operates the offense, just total command. If I had his kind of natural ability, I think I'd be that way too." 

Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com picked three words to describe Rosen: 

And ESPN's Todd McShay, when comparing Rosen to Darnold, noted that "Rosen is far superior going through his progressions and has a pretty deep ball. He's a better QB right now, but that doesn't mean he will be down the line."

In his junior season, Rosen threw for 3,756 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, completing 62.6 percent of his passes. Those numbers closely mirrored his freshman season, when he threw for 3,670 yards, 23 scores and 11 interceptions, completing 60 percent of his passes (injuries limited Rosen to just six games in his sophomore campaign).

So, if Rosen is productive on the field, protects the ball better than Darnold and Allen, and has arguably the most upside of the top quarterbacks and better measurables at 6'4" and 218 pounds than Baker Mayfield (6'1" and 200 pounds), why the heck isn't he the consensus No. 1 pick?

Oh, right—that brash personality. 

Rosen is outspoken, for one.

"No one in their right mind should have a football player's schedule, and go to school," he said during an interview with B/R's Matt Hayes in August. "It's not that some players shouldn't be in school; it's just that universities should help them more—instead of just finding ways to keep them eligible."

He added:

"Look, football and school don't go together. They just don't. Trying to do both is like trying to do two full-time jobs. There are guys who have no business being in school, but they're here because this is the path to the NFL. There's no other way. Then there's the other side that says raise the SAT eligibility requirements. OK, raise the SAT requirement at Alabama and see what kind of team they have. You lose athletes and then the product on the field suffers."

The NFL has never exactly embraced outspoken or political athletes. See Kaepernick, Colin. Rosen isn't afraid to speak his mind, and there will be some front office folks who knock him for that. They'll consider him a "distraction." It's a narrow view—and if Rosen lives up to his potential, it's a view that teams atop the draft will be punished for if they pass on him—but it exists. 

If you don't like your athletes with some personality, well, Rosen isn't for you. But former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer, who coached him at the Elite 11 quarterback camp and later had him return as a counselor—had high praise for Rosen during an appearance on the Rich Eisen Show in January.

"Josh is going to piss off half the people," he said. "But the people that get it, the people that really like him, the people that understand what it means to be the best at the highest level will get that he has that stuff."

You can see Dilfer's full comments below: 

One key to take from Dilfer's analysis of Rosen is that he believes Rosen wants to be elite and has the type of personality to be both a leader and a player with the drive to seek greatness.

"He's intellectual, he has convictions, he's not going to be wishy-washy on stuff, he's going to demand that his coaches give him the best stuff because he wants to be the best—kind of sounds like Peyton Manning," Dilfer noted.

So maybe Rosen's personality will actually work for him and not hinder him? That may not serve the #Narrative, but there's also a chance it's true. It's impossible to say from the outside looking in, and none of it will matter much if Rosen can play (or can't play, for that matter).

Finally, Rosen's had injury concerns in the past. He had shoulder surgery as a sophomore and concussion issues cost him two games in 2017. Teams surely have his injury history on their radar.

As the draft process continues and more scouts, coaches and pundits review the film and form fuller opinions on Rosen, his scouting report will change. A few new weaknesses will emerge. Strengths will crystallize or be diminished. Every nook and cranny will be explored. 

Rosen looks the part of a franchise quarterback. On the field, he looks like the safest pick at the position. How teams judge his personality, leadership ability and accountability, then, will play a huge factor in where he's selected. 

He has the talent to be the top overall pick. He shouldn't fall out of the top five. But the NFL works in mysterious ways.