Liberty Bowl Odds: Iowa State vs. Memphis Betting Pick, Analysis

Playing some good ball under the radar, the Iowa State Cyclones stand as the best team in college football to wager on this season, going 10-1-1 against the spread. Iowa State will play as a live dog when it tangles with the Memphis Tigers in the Liberty Bowl on Saturday afternoon on the Tigers' home turf.

College football point spread: The Tigers opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.2-30.1 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Iowa State Cyclones can cover the spread

The Cyclones started 2-2 this season, which included an excruciating 44-41 overtime loss to rival Iowa. But ISU then reeled off four wins in a row, including memorable victories over both Big 12 championship game participants, Oklahoma and TCU. The Cyclones then lost back-to-back tough games to West Virginia and Oklahoma State, beat Baylor, then finished with a 20-19 loss to Kansas State on a Wildcats touchdown on the last play of the game.

Nonetheless, Iowa State is back in a bowl for the first time since 2012.

On the season, the Cyclones only rank 75th in the nation in total offense, averaging 390 yards per game. But they also rank 45th in total defense, holding opponents to 368 yards per game, and that figure is even more respectable considering Iowa State played the top two offenses in the country, and four of the top 20.

Why the Memphis Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers started 3-0 this season, with a win over UCLA, then lost to a still-unbeaten Central Florida outfit. Memphis then won seven games in a row, hitting the 50-point mark four times, scoring 70 twice, to earn a spot in the AAC championship game. The Tigers then took those same UCF Knights to the limit and beyond, but came up just short in a 62-55 double-overtime defeat in the AAC title game.

Memphis is back in a bowl for the fourth straight season.

The Tigers outgained Central Florida in that conference title tilt by 27 yards and outrushed the Knights by 50 yards. So Memphis has outgained and outrushed each of its last five opponents. The Tigers are also 6-1-1 ATS their last eight times out.

Smart pick

Memphis owns an advantage with its prolific offensive attack, but Iowa State owns the edge on defense. And as we've seen already this bowl season with Troy in the New Orleans Bowl, Marshall in the New Mexico Bowl and Middle Tennessee in the Camellia Bowl, the better defense is usually the better bet. The smart money here rides the Cyclones.

College football betting trends

Memphis is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games in December.

Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

Iowa State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.