Texas Bowl Odds: Texas vs. Missouri Betting Pick, Analysis

You'd think Texas-based teams would own an advantage in the Texas Bowl, but that's not the case as of late. Three different Lone Star state outfits are a combined 0-3 over the last three Texas Bowl matchups and 0-4 against the spread in their last four Texas Bowl appearances. The Texas Longhorns hope to halt those skids when they meet the Missouri Tigers in this year's Texas Bowl on Wednesday, December 27 in Houston.

College football point spread: The Tigers opened as one-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.8-27.1 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

The Longhorns lost three of four games through the middle of this season to fall to 4-5, then used consecutive victories over Kansas and West Virginia to become bowl eligible for the first time in three seasons.

Texas had a chance to finish the regular season with three straight wins but blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead and lost to Texas Tech 27-23. The Longhorns drove to the Red Raiders' 20-yard line late but threw an interception, their third turnover inside Tech territory.

Texas was also forced into two short field goals on drives that delved deep inside the Red Raiders red zone.

The Longhorns have outgained three of their last five opponents and outrushed four of their last five foes.

Texas may only be 6-6 on the season, but four of those losses, including those to USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, came by one score or less, two in overtime.

Why the Missouri Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers started just 1-5 this season, then finished with a bang, winning their last six games in a row, scoring at least 45 points each time out. So Missouri has also made a bowl for the first time in three seasons.

Last time out the Tigers outlasted Arkansas 48-45. Missouri trailed the Razorbacks early 21-7, rallied to take a 31-28 lead into halftime, then eventually won the game on a short field goal with five seconds left.

On the day, Missouri amassed 696 yards of total offense, 248 on the ground and 448 through the air. So the Tigers have outgained and outrushed each of their last six opponents.

Missouri is also 7-1 ATS its last eight times out.

Smart pick

Missouri finished the regular season well, clicking on several cylinders, while Texas struggled offensively all season. And now the Longhorns will be down two starters who are choosing to sit out this game and possibly a third. Smart money takes the Tigers.

College football betting trends

Missouri is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games in December.

The total has gone under in four of Missouri's last five games against the Big 12.

Texas is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games after a loss.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.