Rose Bowl 2018: Factors That Will Decide Georgia vs. Oklahoma Playoff

Storylines abound when talking about the matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2018 Rose Bowl. 

That's what happens when you have the most polarizing player in America in Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Baker Mayfield taking on the SEC champions for a shot at a national championship. 

Styles make fights and the styles couldn't be any different in this one. On the one hand you've got the high-flying Oklahoma offense, with first-year head coach Lincoln Riley unleashing Mayfield on helpless defenses all season resulting in 44.9 points per game. 

On the other hand you have the prolific Georgia rushing attack and a stingy defense leading the way for Georgia in Kirby Smart's second season. The Dawgs are giving up just 13.2 points per game. 

This game comes down to more than just an explosive offense against a great defense, though. There are matchups and factors that will play a key role. Here's a look at a few things to keep an eye on that will determine the outcome. 

Oklahoma's Ability to Run the Ball

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Plenty of attention will be spent on Baker Mayfield heading into this game. That's warranted. He's the Heisman Trophy winner after all, but Oklahoma's run game might be the most underrated unit in college football. 

The Sooners offense is predicated on incredible balance. Oklahoma runs the ball 54 percent of the time and while it only accounts for 37 percent of the offense's total yards, it's the consistent force that keeps Oklahoma ahead of the chains and Mayfield in favorable situations. 

Oklahoma is 12th in the nation in yards per carry at 5.6—comparable to Georgia's vaunted rushing attack, which comes in at 5.8. The 1-2 punch of Rodney Anderson and Trey Sermon isn't Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, but the pair are effective enough to lead a rushing attack that has racked up 2,807 yards this season. 

That running ability will be put to the test against, Georgia, though. 

The Bulldogs are No. 20 in the nation in yards allowed per carry, giving up just 3.47 yards per attempt. The Sooners did just have success against the No. 5 defense in the category in TCU, but the Horned Frogs are built a little more for speed while Georgia will present a different challenge with their strength up front. 

If the Dawgs are able to stuff Oklahoma's run game that will go a long way in helping them to slow down Mayfield. 

Jake Fromm vs. Oklahoma Secondary

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Just like the Oklahoma run game, it feels like Jake Fromm is the unsung key to success for the Bulldogs against the Sooners. Oklahoma's secondary has been the questionable aspect of the team all season long. 

Oklahoma is 81st in passing yards allowed per attempt and 86th in passer rating allowed. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 21 touchdowns to eight interceptions with 3,128 yards. Those numbers aren't too far from Fromm's actual stats as a passer this season. 

The freshman has led Georgia with 21 touchdowns to five interceptions and 2,173 yards.

Don't let the fact that Fromm is a freshman be deceiving, though. Oklahoma knows that he's capable of making big-time throws. 

"They've probably been one of the more improved offenses in the country from last year to this year," Riley said, per Jake Rowe of 247 Sports. "The young quarterback has played so well for them, and they've done a good job bringing him along. He's not just been a manager, though. You turn on the tape and the guy's making a lot of big-time throws all over the place."

The Georgia rushing attack will have success. Oklahoma's defense isn't exactly stout against the run either. Chubb and Michel have really only been stopped once this season when Auburn won the first matchup between the two schools. 

But at some point in a close game you have to depend on the quarterback to make plays. Fromm saw some better pass defenses in the SEC, the question is whether he will step into those big moments and make the plays Georgia will need to win. 

Baker Mayfield

If Deshaun Watson has taught us anything about the playoffs, it's that a difference-maker at quarterback can single-handedly swing these games. 

Two years ago, the Sooners were run off the field by the Tigers because they couldn't keep Mayfield upright while Watson ran all over the Oklahoma defense. Now Mayfield has taken over Watson's mantel as the most exciting quarterback in college football. 

Mayfield's prowess is well-covered, but Pro Football Focus summed up all his accomplishments:

The Georgia defense provides an interesting challenge for the fiery quarterback. He does well against pressure, but the Bulldogs don't necessarily bring a lot. They only average 2.0 sacks per game while giving up just 5.6 yards per attempt. 

If there is a strategy that could theoretically work in limiting Mayfield it would be keeping him in the pocket and forcing him to get it out of his hands. Georgia seems perfectly suited to do that. 

Still, no team has been able to limit him. Both teams have offenses that can hurt the respective defenses. It should be a shootout as Georgia's running attack will try to keep up with Oklahoma's aerial assault. 

In a shootout it's a good idea to take the best quarterback as it comes down to who makes the plays down the stretch. 

That's why the pick is Oklahoma by the slimmest of margins. 

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Georgia 36