The Biggest X-Factors to Watch in Post-Christmas Bowl Games
Football fans usually agree that a complete team effort is most important, but individuals can have an enormous impact on shaping the outcome.
If he performs well, collective success should follow. Should the opponent contain this player, though, it may be a rough finish to the 2017 season for his program.
While bowl season has already begun, we're looking ahead to the post-Christmas portion of the schedule and identifying the key player in several top matchups. The majority of the bowls highlighted feature a pair of ranked teams.
The list is organized chronologically based on kickoff time, beginning with some entertaining exhibitions and building up to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona
1 of 9
Game info: Foster Farms Bowl vs. Purdue, Dec. 27, 8:30 p.m. ET
Khalil Tate electrified the nation with his running ability, amassing 1,207 yards and 11 touchdowns over a six-game stretch where he helped Arizona go 5-1 and earn bowl eligibility.
But in the final two games of the season—both losses—Tate mustered just 60 yards on the ground and only scored once.
Purdue surrendered just 3.6 yards per carry during the regular season. The only quarterback to register more than 36 total rushing yards against the Boilermakers finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting, and nobody expected Purdue to contain Lamar Jackson.
The Wildcats are currently 3.5-point favorites, per OddsShark, but they'll struggle if Tate is unable to run effectively.
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
2 of 9
Game info: Camping World Bowl vs. Virginia Tech, Dec. 28, 5:15 p.m. ET
Not only is this a tough matchup for Oklahoma State, but the Camping World Bowl is a useful barometer for Mason Rudolph's pro prospects.
Virginia Tech is going to challenge the wide receivers with man coverage, and a formidable pass rush will often pressure the senior. Rudolph hasn't regularly shown the ability to create when a play breaks down and could find himself in trouble if the Hokies can disrupt the timing of his throws.
Should the senior stay in that rhythm passing, though, it could be a frustrating night for Tech's secondary. Rudolph threw for 300-plus yards 10 times and tossed at least three touchdowns in nine games.
Closing his Oklahoma State career on a positive note would provide a nice boost for Rudolph entering draft preparations.
Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
3 of 9
Game info: Alamo Bowl vs. TCU, Dec. 28, 9 p.m. ET
Heisman Trophy runner-up Bryce Love epitomized the cliche of "leaving it all on the field." During the Pac-12 Championship Game, he limped off the field multiple times but kept returning. It nearly lifted Stanford to the conference title.
According to Tim Griffin of DieHards, Love said he expects to be 100 percent by game time. Good thing, too.
As outstanding as he's been, the rest of the team averaged a meager 3.4 yards per carry. Plus, TCU boasts the fifth-most efficient run defense in the Football Bowl Subdivision. But Love has 100-plus yards in every appearance but one, including 166 against a stout Washington defense.
Love's health is paramount to Stanford's chances of knocking off the 15th-ranked Horned Frogs.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Ronald Jones II, RB, USC
4 of 9
Game info: Cotton Bowl vs. Ohio State, Dec. 29, 8:30 p.m. ET
Running the ball successfully against the Buckeyes is a daunting task, but it's often an essential part of toppling Urban Meyer's team.
Iowa racked up 243 rushing yards during its blowout win over the Buckeyes. Last season, Clemson gashed the Buckeyes for 205 yards in a 31-0 rout, and Michigan State nearly pulled off an upset behind a 207-yard performance on the ground. While efficient rushing doesn't guarantee success, it sure helps.
Sam Darnold is plenty talented and can keep USC competitive, but a rousing performance from Ronald Jones II can put the Trojans over the top. It's not a coincidence they needed overtime to clip Texas and lost by 35 points at Notre Dame when Jones had his worst games of the season.
USC, which is a 7.5-point underdog, per OddsShark, can close that gap if Jones takes advantage of the limited room Ohio State provides.
Alex Hornibrook, QB, Wisconsin
5 of 9
Game info: Orange Bowl vs. Miami, Dec. 30, 8 p.m. ET
Among underappreciated things of the 2017 campaign, the excellence of Wisconsin's defense feels like one. The unit is fantastic.
But the Badgers, while confident for great reason, cannot expect the defense to keep hiding Alex Hornibrook's mistakes.
Though Christmas is the season for sharing, the sophomore quarterback must avoid gifting points to the opposition—especially a short-handed Miami team. That'll be a challenge opposite a defense ranked second nationally in takeaways.
In addition to throwing 15 interceptions on the year, his last seven picks have resulted in four touchdowns, one field goal and one game-sealing turnover. If he gives the hometown crowd reason to celebrate, the 'Canes can ride an opportunistic offense and steal a win.
Wisconsin probably won't require a heroic performance from Hornibrook unless his turnovers put the team in a position that it needs one.
Tre'Quan Smith, WR, UCF
6 of 9
Game info: Peach Bowl vs. Auburn, Jan. 1, 12:30 p.m. ET
In the final game of Scott Frost's magnificent two-year tenure, Central Florida wants to prove it was disrespected.
After giving up 97 combined points to South Florida and Memphis over the last two games, however, the Knights may need their offense to win another shootout. Auburn could hang 40 points on UCF, and the Tigers haven't surrendered more than 28 all season.
To say this will be difficult is an understatement.
Tre'Quan Smith leads the Knights with 54 receptions, 1,082 yards and 13 touchdowns. He ranks tied for fourth nationally with 13 catches of 30-plus yards and also has turned nine of his team-high 11 third-down catches into first downs.
UCF will need a handful of explosive plays and timely conversions to threaten Auburn. The connection between McKenzie Milton and Smith must appear throughout the Peach Bowl.
Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
7 of 9
Game info: Citrus Bowl vs. LSU, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET
Josh Adams managed a total of 142 yards on 55 carries—3.9 yards per rush—against Georgia, Miami and Stanford. Notre Dame lost all three of those matchups.
Otherwise, the junior running back accumulated 1,244 yards on 146 attempts, posting a fantastic average of 8.5 yards. When Adams was productive, the Fighting Irish thrived.
Although the box-score splits are simple, the execution and the upcoming matchup are not. Notre Dame is preparing for LSU, which allowed just 2.7 yards per carry in November and a paltry 3.8 during the entire regular season.
Barring a flip to a year-long trend, Notre Dame will go as Adams does. And the Tigers might not let him travel far.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
8 of 9
Game info: Rose Bowl vs. Georgia, Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET
One minute left. One timeout. Down four. You can have any quarterback in college football; who are you picking?
There's a great chance you're going with Baker Mayfield.
While the situation may seem overly dramatic for our purposes, it's reasonable to anticipate a similar situation happening in the Rose Bowl. Georgia is a two-point favorite, per OddsShark.
Besides, Oklahoma is the only of four College Football Playoff qualifiers to not have a top-six defense, and it's not even close. The Sooners rank 57th in total defense, 52nd in scoring defense and 69th in yards allowed per play. Unless the unit treats Georgia like it's Kansas and holds the Bulldogs to 200 yards, Mayfield will have to keep up.
Conversely, if the Sooners score early and often, the Dawgs will have to match Mayfield's pace. That's not a game Georgia wants to play.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
9 of 9
Game info: Sugar Bowl vs. Clemson, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET
Clemson has a smart coaching staff and roster, but I'll be generous and share some insight on Alabama anyway: Jalen Hurts likes throwing to Calvin Ridley. Maybe cover him?
Per CFB Film Room, the junior wideout has garnered 82 targets. That's a lot, yes. But it's not a particularly high number for an NFL-bound receiver.
Consider this, though: According to NCAA Savant, Ridley has as many red-zone targets (14) as Alabama's No. 2 pass-catcher, Bo Scarbrough, has total receptions.
Auburn, the only program to beat Alabama this season, limited Ridley to season-low marks of three catches and 38 yards. Clemson has the talent at cornerback to keep him similarly quiet, which the 2015 and 2016 teams both accomplished.
But if Hurts and Ridley convert a couple of explosive 30-plus-yard passes, it'll be a major boost for an offense that could toil to consistently move the ball. Clemson cannot afford to see the Crimson Tide's lone established target thrive.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
