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NFL Week 14 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

Paul KasabianSenior ContributorDecember 6, 2017

JACKSONVILLE, FL - DECEMBER 3: Cornerback Jalen Ramsey #20 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrates after breaking up a pass play during the game against the Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Field on December 3, 2017 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars defeated the Colts 30 to 10. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

An excellent slate of games awaits NFL fans this week.

Three potential NFC playoff matchups will occur against teams currently in the top seven of the conference. The Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars face off in an intriguing interconference battle, and a classic AFC North slugfest will take place in Pittsburgh as the Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens.

It should be an excellent week of football. Until then, here's a look at the most recent odds, per OddsShark, and some picks for the games. We'll also look at three matchups predicted to go well over (or well under) their current totals.

                   

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, 53 O/U)

Pick: Saints 34, Falcons 24 (Over)

                                                            

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 38 O/U)

Pick: Bengals 20, Bears 13 (Under)

                                                                   

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (No Line)

This game is off the board until the status of Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor is made clear.

Taylor suffered a patellar tendon contusion last Sunday against the New England Patriots, and he is day to day, per head coach Sean McDermott. Taylor did not practice Wednesday.

                                                     

Dallas Cowboys (-4, 41.5 O/Uat New York Giants

Pick: Cowboys 20, Giants 17 (Under)

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 47 O/U)

Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24 (Over)

                                                                                  

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit Lions quarterback Matt Stafford suffered a bruised right hand last Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, so this game is off the board until his status is confirmed.

                                                       

Green Bay Packers (-3, 40.5 O/Uat Cleveland Browns

Pick: Packers 14, Browns 10 (Under)

                                         

Minnesota Vikings (-3, 41 O/U) at Carolina Panthers

Pick: Vikings 21, Panthers 17 (Under)

               

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 43 O/U)

Pick: 49ers 31, Texans 27 (Over)

                                           

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (even, 41 O/U)

Pick: Jets 19, Broncos 16 (Under)

                      

Tennessee Titans (-3, 44 O/Uat Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals 20, Titans 17 (Under)

                                                              

Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 46 O/U)

Pick: Chargers 27, Redskins 10 (Under)

                              

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 39.5 O/U)

Pick: Jaguars 17, Seahawks 13 (Under)

        

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 49 O/U)

Pick: Rams 27, Eagles 24 (Over)

                                                                      

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 43.5 O/U)

Pick: Steelers 24, Ravens 20 (Over)

        

New England Patriots (-11, 47 O/Uat Miami Dolphins

Pick: Patriots 31, Dolphins 17 (Over)

        

Green Bay Packers (-3, 40.5 O/Uat Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer and Green Bay Packers signal-caller Brett Hundley have combined to throw 23 interceptions to just 11 touchdowns this season.

Of course, they are still in the very early stages of their careers and can turn things around. But right now, Kizer and Hundley are both having issues connecting with their pass-catchers on a consistent basis.

Hundley has only shown consistent chemistry with Davante Adams, who has caught 36 passes on 57 targets since the former UCLA Bruin entered the lineup against the Minnesota Vikings on October 15.

Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have not fared as well. Nelson has only 180 receiving yards during that span. Cobb has 245 but went catchless against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

In addition, the weather for Sunday is not conducive to good offensive football. The current National Weather Service forecast calls for 15 mph winds, a wind chill below 20 degrees and a chance of snow for Cleveland in the early portion of Sunday afternoon.

That could be a big problem for Kizer, whose deep balls could be affected by the wind. On a clear day with calm conditions, he and the Browns' best offensive weapon (Josh Gordon) could connect on a few long passes as they did Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. But in these conditions, that could be much more difficult to accomplish.

Overall, this seems like a matchup where the running game and short passes will be prominent, leading to low scores and slow slogs up and down the field.

             

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 43 O/U)

Here's a take that certainly might come back to haunt me, but the guess here is that your shootout of the week will occur in Houston.

The San Francisco 49ers may have only scored 15 points last Sunday in Jimmy Garoppolo's starting debut with the team, but he nearly threw for 300 yards and looked like he had a solid rapport already with his pass-catchers, particularly Marquise Goodwin and Trent Taylor.

Also, Chicago has proved to be a tough place to play this year. Notably, one of the Pittsburgh Steelers' only two losses was in the Windy City. The fact that Garoppolo went into Chicago for his first start after being named the starter just days prior is undoubtedly impressive. Garoppolo wasn't even on the team until October 30 after the New England Patriots traded him for a second-round pick.

He and Goodwin could connect on a few deep balls. Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Stats, the Texans rank in the bottom third of the league in explosive pass plays allowed. Goodwin has averaged an eye-popping 19.3 yards per reception this year and caught eight passes for 99 yards last Sunday.

For the Texans, wideout DeAndre Hopkins is a nightmare matchup for any cornerback in the league. He somehow beat Patrick Peterson for a touchdown when Houston beat the Arizona Cardinals 31-21 this season.

Tight end Stephen Anderson also looks like he will be a prominent figure in the offense, as he caught five passes for 79 yards and a score against the Tennessee Titans last Sunday.

Although Texans quarterback Tom Savage has struggled this year, this could be a matchup where he excels, as the 49ers rank in the bottom three in pass defense-value adjusted over average, per Football Outsiders. Look for this game to go over the total.

        

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 39.5 O/U)

It's hard to bet against Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson when one can make a case for him being the MVP front-runner after 12 games, but the Jacksonville Jaguars' front is going to give the Seattle offensive line some serious problems.

Through 12 games, Jacksonville has 45 sacks, which is five clear of the next closest team (Pittsburgh). Wilson does a great job evading opposing pressure, but teams can still get to him; Seattle ranks middle of the pack in sacks allowed (28).

In addition, Jaguars cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey are among the best in the league at their position, and they should be able to win their matchups on a consistent basis.

On the Jacksonville side, the Jags will likely try to establish the run with workhorse running back Leonard Fournette.

However, that endeavor may go unsuccessful. Seattle is ranked seventh in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.8) and yards per game (98.3).

Passing might prove to be more successful, as the Seahawks secondary took two massive hits when Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor suffered season-ending injuries. However, Seattle looked fantastic against MVP candidate Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, holding them to just 10 points.

On paper, this looks like a game where the first team to the teens wins.

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