Fantasy Football Week 13 Workload Watch
Good teams get the most out of their talent. Bad teams waste talent.
The Carolina Panthers used a first-round pick on Christian McCaffrey and immediately featured him as a receiver. He had some early-season struggles running the ball but is showing improvement in the second half of the year, which has been a boost to his fantasy value and the Panthers offense. Jonathan Stewart isn't going away, but it's clear McCaffrey is the man in that backfield.
The Denver Broncos made Paxton Lynch the third different starter of the season before last week's game against the Oakland Raiders. After a busy Week 11 for Devontae Booker, all signs pointed to a featured role in Week 12. Instead, he was mostly a non-factor in an ugly loss.
To learn more about what’s going on in the backfields for the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, check out the Week 13 B.S. Meter. This Workload Watch covers eight other RB situations that have the most fantasy implications.
Atlanta Falcons
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Week 12 Workload Distribution
Another week without Freeman meant another busy week for Coleman. He played a season-high percentage of snaps, which was also the highest percentage of any Falcons running back since Week 7, when Freeman was on the field for 71.9 percent of the snaps. The Week 12 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also resulted in the most snaps Ward has played this season, so a strong commitment to the backfield was apparent and successful for the Falcons.
Other than the 3 percent of snaps he played in Week 10, Freeman has basically been out for three games. During that time, Coleman has played at least 67.0 percent of the snaps in each week with 59 carries for 223 and four touchdowns. Before his concussion, Freeman had just two games with at least 19 carries, the last of which came in Week 3. While it's easier to fully commit to a talented back like Coleman with Freeman out, it's fair to wonder how the Falcons will treat this backfield when it returns to full strength in Week 13.
On Wednesday, head coach Dan Quinn revealed Freeman was cleared from his concussion in an appearance on 92.9 The Game, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. For the season, Coleman has 122 carries for 539 yards (4.4 yards per carry) and five rushing TDs. Freeman has 116 carries for 515 yards (4.4 YPC) and five rushing scores.
That leaves the Falcons with two players performing at the same level, although Coleman's production came without Freeman there to take away touches. Finding the balance between these two has been difficult, so following Coleman's success without Freeman, it might be hard to call either more than a RB2 until further notice.
Baltimore Ravens
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Week 12 Workload Distribution
The Ravens are hanging around in the playoff hunt despite possessing the second-worst offense in the league at just 281.1 yards per game. They are averaging a league-worst 4.4 yards per play. They have the worst passing offense in the league at 164.3 yards per game and just 5.3 yards per attempt. If they plan on making the playoffs and potentially advancing, they need to get more out of the offense.
Woodhead could be someone to help that cause. In his second game back from the hamstring injury that landed him on injured reserve since going down in Week 1, Woodhead saw a 10.8 percent increase in snaps as well as three more carries than he had in Week 11, although that will never be a big number because the team has Collins. His targets dropped from six to four, and his receptions dropped from five to four, but he gained two more yards as a receiver. Even though he hasn't had strong fantasy production, he's moving in the right direction and should be at least a flex option going forward.
Collins is the main reason why the Ravens are tied for 10th with 116.8 rushing yards per game. He leads the team with 129 carries for 630 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and two TDs, each of which came in the last two weeks.
However, Allen just won't go away. Even though he has fewer than 10 carries in four of the last five games, he had a 10-yard rushing touchdown in Week 12, and his snap percentage rose by 5.5 percent from Week 11. He needs to fade away for complete confidence to exist in Collins and Woodhead.
The Ravens aren't good enough to support two fantasy RBs if a third player like Allen remains in the mix. Collins missed practice this week with a calf injury, according to Edward Lee of the Baltimore Sun, so that is a situation to monitor.
Carolina Panthers
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Week 12 Workload Distribution
With such a busy role as a receiver and a secondary role as a runner, it might be surprising to learn McCaffrey is the No. 16 running back in standard scoring formats. It's probably not as surprising to learn he's the No. 10 RB in PPR formats because of how active he's been as a receiver in an offense that hasn't been very consistent despite its 8-3 record.
McCaffrey has more rushing yards than receiving yards on three occasions this season, but two of those have come in the last three games. He ran for 47 yards in Week 1, yet failed to run for more than 16 yards in another game until Week 9, when he carried 15 times for 66 yards and his first rushing score of the season. That also marked the only other time besides Week 1 that McCaffrey logged double-digit carries. By comparison, Stewart has at least 11 carries in all but one game.
The bulk of McCaffrey's fantasy value comes from his role in the passing game. He leads the team in targets (84) and receptions (59) along with 468 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. McCaffrey has had at least five targets in every game and at least five receptions in seven games. That consistency has made him a weekly starter and a low-end RB1 in PPR formats.
A game after Stewart came out of nowhere to rush for 110 yards on 17 carries in Week 10, he was right back to his normal, disappointing rushing numbers in Week 12, only to be saved by his second rushing TD of the season. After playing at least 43 percent of the snaps in four of the first five games, Stewart has just one game with at least 40 percent of the snaps in the last six. He remains a desperation fantasy option.
According to David Newton of ESPN.com, head coach Ron Rivera simply said, "We'll see tomorrow," when asked about McCaffrey sitting out of the first practice of the week with a shoulder injury. Obviously, that's a situation to monitor since the Panthers don't really have a replacement for what McCaffrey brings to the table.
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Chicago Bears
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Week 12 Workload Distribution
Howard's margin for error has always been small because he doesn't do much as a receiver and doesn't score a lot, which means he must have volume to be a reliable fantasy running back. When you play on a bad team, those opportunities aren't automatic, as we saw in Week 12.
The Bears didn't put up much of a fight in their 31-3 loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia last week. With the Bears down 24-0 at the half, Howard's chances of decent fantasy production disappeared and he wound up finishing with his worst outing of the season. He dipped below 45 percent of the carries for the first time all year, although in the last three weeks, he hasn't hit 50 percent in any game, which happened just once over the first eight weeks.
Even in the blowout, Cohen failed to play much of a role, which was surprising since he should have been used as a hurry-up back. Cunningham outsnapped Cohen but was also quiet. With the Bears out of contention and the final weeks of the fantasy season coming up, Cohen isn't worth keeping on your roster since his usage is unpredictable and his ceiling isn't high enough to justify such a low floor.
Howard remains a decent RB2, and it helps that he faces the San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns over the next four weeks, as the majority of those games should be close.
Cleveland Browns
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Week 12 Workload Distribution
A week after letting down fantasy owners with a poor performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Crowell bounced back with his best game of the season in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Crowell has at least 95 total yards in three of his last four games and at least 90 rushing yards in two of his last three.
Much like Jordan Howard, Crowell can be risky because he needs the volume and/or a touchdown to be useful for fantasy. However, he's not as talented as Howard and has to deal with the presence of Johnson, so it makes him tougher to trust.
When in doubt, Johnson is the better fantasy option in this backfield because he can contribute regardless of the score. Johnson has at least four receptions in each of the last five games and seven times on the year. He has at least five targets in each of his last six games and in 10 games over the course of the season. Johnson leads the team in targets (65), receptions (50) and receiving yards (446). He also outsnapped Crowell in each of the last three games and has a slight advantage for the season.
In PPR formats, Johnson is the No. 14 back at 13.3 fantasy points per game, which makes him a strong RB2. Crowell is further down the list as the No. 26 RB with 9.5 fantasy points per game, so he's more of a good RB3/flex. Both have been productive enough to play in any given week regardless of the matchup, although Johnson remains the safer choice.
Dallas Cowboys
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Week 12 Workload Distribution
- Alfred Morris: 36.4% snaps, 9 carries, 36 yards, 0 TD, 1 target, 1 reception, 13 yards, 0 TD
- Rod Smith: 61.8% snaps, 9 carries, 41 yards, 1 TD, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 7 yards, 0 TD
Another ugly loss left the Cowboys in disarray on Thanksgiving.
For the third straight game, they failed to score 10 points, and Morris was a non-factor for fantasy. Since taking over for Ezekiel Elliott, Morris hasn't played more than 40 percent of the snaps and has been outsnapped by Smith in each game. While Morris hasn't been bad, tallying 37 carries for 180 yards, he's yet to find the end zone and has just a single reception on his only target for 13 yards. Just two of his 37 carries came in the red zone, but none of them happened inside the 10-yard line.
Meanwhile, Smith isn't doing much despite playing more than Morris. His fourth-quarter touchdown against the Chargers was pretty much meaningless, so it was hardly anything to build on for the future. He has 20 carries for 66 yards and a score in the last three weeks, and despite playing from behind in each of those games, Smith hauled in just six of eight targets for 22 yards.
The Cowboys offense is completely out of whack with no solution in sight. Both Morris and Smith are risky fantasy options and shouldn't be considered more than RB3/flex plays at best. This might be a situation to abandon unless you're desperate.
Denver Broncos
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Week 12 Workload Distribution
- C.J. Anderson: 32.2% snaps, 5 carries, 12 yards, 0 TD, 0 targets
- Devontae Booker: 44.1% snaps, 6 carries, 11 yards, 0 TD, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 22 yards, 0 TD
- Jamaal Charles: 25.4% snaps, 1 carry, 3 yards, 0 TD, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 7 yards, 0 TD
Last week's Workload Watch covered the rise of Booker and how his ascent to the top of the Broncos depth chart provided some hope in this backfield for reliable fantasy production down the stretch. We all should have known better.
The Broncos had another forgettable performance with Paxton Lynch taking over quarterback duties in relief of Brock Osweiler. There was a small window of optimism when Booker appeared to catch a 20-yard touchdown from Lynch, but upon further review, he was ruled down at the 1-yard line, taking six points off the board. Two plays later, Lynch threw a jump pass across his body into triple coverage and was picked off in the end zone. Lynch ended up leaving with an ankle injury, and Trevor Siemian took over, lofting TD passes to Cody Latimer and Bennie Fowler.
Even though Booker had an advantage over Anderson in snaps and touches, it was a far cry from the 19 touches he had in Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Even if Booker is leading the way in this backfield, it doesn't mean much because Anderson and Charles are still seeing the field in big enough chunks to limit Booker's ceiling. He is the only Broncos running back worth rostering, although on such a bad team, using him is a risk you might be better off avoiding if your season is on the line.
Philadelphia Eagles
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Week 12 Workload Distribution
- LeGarrette Blount: 47.4% snaps, 15 carries, 97 yards, 0 TD, 0 targets
- Jay Ajayi: 28.2% snaps, 5 carries, 26 yards, 0 TD, 2 targets, 1 reception, 7 yards, 0 TD
- Corey Clement: 19.2% snaps, 4 carries, 27 yards, 0 TD, 1 target, 1 reception, 12 yards, 0 TD
- Kenjon Barner: 5.1% snaps, 0 carries, 1 target, 0 receptions
The idea of Ajayi joining the best team in the league to rejuvenate his fantasy value has been a bust through three games. At this point, being able to use him with confidence would at least justify keeping him on fantasy rosters.
Even though Ajayi never had a chance of replicating the high volume he had with the Miami Dolphins, the quality of touches had a chance to improve on a far better team. The quantity is a problem because Ajayi isn't doing enough with his limited time on the field. His snap count against the Chicago Bears was his highest as an Eagle, but he still trailed Blount by a significant margin. Plus, he had his fewest touches since joining the team, but that number hasn't been higher than eight. Ajayi had a chance at his second touchdown as an Eagle, but he fumbled the ball into the end zone, only for Nelson Agholor to recover it for the score.
Blount remains the lead back for the Eagles in both carries and snaps, although that hasn't meant much for fantasy because he hasn't scored or had a catch since October. Without TDs, Blount is useless in such a splintered backfield. He didn't have a red-zone carry in Week 12 and has just five over the last four games, including just one inside the 10-yard line. Leading this backfield isn't translating into fantasy production.
This is a rare case where a great team can't be trusted for fantasy. The four-headed backfield is too unpredictable and splintered to back anyone with confidence. Ajayi and Blount are bench players you would only use if you have no other options.
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