
NFL Predictions Week 12: Top Underdogs Picks, Vegas Odds and Score Predictions
The NFL's Week 12 schedule from an odds standpoint is akin to a holiday table, featuring a little bit of everything for everyone.
Those bettors who enjoy riding on the wild side have plenty of games to look at this week. And those who love huge spreads have a handful of options. As for underdogs, there are more than a few to consider as well based on the midweek lines.
For now, lines haven't adjusted and bettors have plenty of wiggle room to exploit the openings. Whether it's a spread too big the house is exposed or a simple upset in the making, picking and choosing the right spots will have bettors padding the bankroll at the best time of year.
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Let's look at the full slate before analyzing some underdog picks.
NFL Week 12 Schedule, Odds
Minnesota (-3) at Detroit | O/U 44.5
L.A. Chargers at Dallas (E) | O/U 48
N.Y. Giants at Washington (-7.5) | O/U 44.5
Buffalo at Kansas City (-10) | O/U 45
Carolina (-4) at N.Y. Jets | O/U 39.5
Chicago at Philadelphia (-13.5) | O/U 44
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-8) | O/U 38
Miami at New England (-17) | O/U 47.5
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-10) | O/U 49
Tennessee (-3.5) at Indianapolis | O/U 44
Seattle (-7) at San Francisco | O/U 42.5
Denver at Oakland (-5) | O/U 43.5
Jacksonville (-4.5) at Arizona | O/U 38
New Orleans at L.A. Rams (-2.5) | O/U 53.5
Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-14) | O/U 41
Houston at Baltimore (-7) | O/U 38
Chicago at Philadelphia (-13.5)
Here's an example of a line overextending itself out of the gates and looking ripe for exploitation.
The Chicago Bears aren't a great team by any means this year, but they are a dangerous one in the middle of an encouraging rebuild. They've lost three in a row, but none by more than three points, that one specifically a loss to the New Orleans Saints on the road.
These Philadelphia Eagles, of course, have blown through the competition as of late, winning their last three games in 33-10, 51-23 and 37-9 fashion.
Granted, none of those wins have come against a team better than .500, but the Eagles are 9-1 with Carson Wentz looking like an MVP contender under center at 25 touchdowns against five interceptions.
One doesn't have to watch long to see MVP-caliber play from Wentz:
But these Bears pose major problems to the idea the Eagles can just up and run away with this one.
The offense is of the ball-control variety with Jordan Howard (841 yards, five touchdowns, 4.4 average) and Tarik Cohen (273, two, 4.3). Rookie Mitchell Trubisky under center isn't perfect, but he's athletic enough to extend plays and push the ball down the field. And Chicago's defense is strong, in large part because Akiem Hicks is one of the NFL's outright best players and able to collapse pockets on his lonesome.
Against a Bears defense able to slow Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers and blowout Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers, Wentz isn't pulling away from the Bears and besting this spread. The Eagles should still win late, but there's an opening here.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Bears 20
Buffalo at Kansas City (-10)
In a handful of ways, the Buffalo Bills are a borderline laughable mess.
The team hasn't just lost three in a row, it decided it best to bench starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor in Week 11. The result? A 54-24 loss at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers while rookie Nathan Peterman tossed five interceptions.
And yet the line here against the Kansas City Chiefs feels ripe for exploitation.
These Chiefs haven't been reliable since early October. They started the season hot at 5-0 and went on to lose four of five, the latest a laughable 12-9 overtime loss against the two-win New York Giants.
Alex Smith (18 touchdowns, three interceptions) is back to simply managing games, and breakout rookie running back Kareem Hunt has regressed. It's a tandem an Eric Berry-less defense hasn't been able to compensate for any longer.
"[Opposing defenses] focus on the run a lot," Hunt said, according to ESPN.com's Adam Teicher. "We have to fix some things and get it going."
The Bills can do much of the same. Through the first four games of the season, Buffalo didn't even allow an average of 14 points per game. There has been a big regression since then, but the offense putting the unit in bad spots hasn't helped.
Working on the basis the Bills won't start the rookie again (though they thought throwing him into the fire against Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram was a good idea), Taylor and the Bills can pull off an upset here against a struggling Chiefs team once again held back by play under center and what seems to be a crumbling defense.
Prediction: Bills 24, Chiefs 20
Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-14)
Oddsmakers should know better than to throw down a 14-point spread on almost any game with as wild as 2017 has been so far.
Yes, on paper the Steelers should smack around the Green Bay Packers. After all, those Packers just took a 23-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens at home while Brett Hundley looked downright lost under center, throwing three interceptions.
At the same time, those Steelers were busy throttling the Tennessee Titans in 40-17 fashion while Roethlisberger threw four touchdowns and his defense picked off Marcus Mariota four times.
The Packers, at least, are a known commodity. Big Ben hasn't been the shining beacon of consistency this year, having thrown only three touchdowns against two interceptions over two games before the four-touchdown outburst. He's also the guy who looked a little bit like Hundley while throwing no touchdowns and five picks in a game this year.
Then again, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin thinks the team can do even better than the 40-point outburst.
"I think they are capable of even more. I'm optimistic. We'll see," Tomlin said, according to ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler. "I think we found our rhythm in that game once we got a sense of [how] coach (Dick) LeBeau was attacking us. I think we went on from there."
Yet Green Bay is only allowing an average of 23 points per game. The offense isn't scoring enough to win games most times out, but the Packers are keeping close.
This feels like a trap game, especially with the Steelers looking ahead at a trip to Cincinnati the week after. Star power like Antonio Brown will keep the Steelers in front, but look for this one to be closer than expected as the Steelers regress.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Packers 20

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