Week 11 NFL Picks: Predictions for Sunday's Games, Odds Guide, Over/Under Tips

Those who waited until the last minute to make NFL picks in Week 11 play a dangerous game. 

Several lines have dramatically adjusted over the course of the week, with some favorites outright swapping roles with the underdogs based on the initial lines.  

At the least, would-be bettors can take solace in the fact Thursday Night Football went as planned, where the Pittsburgh Steelers made good on a line favoring them by seven points, taking down the Tennessee Titans 40-17. 

Those willing to wait have to hope things go as smoothly over the weekend, where a tough schedule awaits.

Here's a look at it, plus some of the lines those with patience should now be rushing to grab. 

NFL Week 11 Schedule, Odds

Arizona at Houston (-2) | O/U 37.5

Baltimore (-2) at Green Bay | O/U 38

Detroit (-3) at Chicago | O/U 42

Jacksonville (-8.5) at Cleveland | O/U 37.5

Kansas City (-11) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 44.5

L.A. Rams at Minnesota (-2.5) | O/U 46.5

Tampa Bay (-1) at Miami | O/U 40

Washington at New Orleans (-8.5) | O/U 51

Buffalo at L.A. Chargers (-6) | O/U 43.5

Cincinnati at Denver (-2.5) | O/U 39.5

New England (-7.5) at Oakland | O/U 52

Philadelphia (-5.5) at Dallas | O/U 48

Atlanta at Seattle (-3) | O/U 45

Buffalo at L.A. Chargers (-6) | O/U 43.5

The Buffalo Bills just went from a potential upset pick to a team to avoid as they travel across the country for a game against the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Had the Bills stuck with Tyrod Taylor under center, this line might look a little more attractive from an underdog perspective. He'd led the team to a 5-4 mark this year despite the front office trading away weapons like Sammy Watkins, yet the team still decided to pull the rug out from under him and start rookie Nathan Peterman. 

Meaning, the Bills made a conscious decision to trot out a rookie on the road against a pass rush led by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Said rush already has 29 sacks this year and shouldn't have problems disrupting a rookie behind a line that has coughed up 28. 

These Chargers return from a two-game trip with close losses in New England and Jacksonville. The good news is the revelation quarterback Philip Rivers will be good to go, per ESPN's Eric Williams: 

At home, Rivers won't have to do much to swat away a rookie. He's not his normal self anymore by any means, but he still has 15 touchdowns against seven interceptions and a solid running game behind him with Melvin Gordon. 

More than anything, this feels like a visiting team trying to see what it has under center while heading into an offseason or rebuild than it does a team making a necessary change in an effort to make a playoff push. 

The Chargers aren't doing the latter, either, but at home against a rookie, a six-point spread isn't intimidating. 

Prediction: Chargers 27, Bills 17

Washington at New Orleans (-8.5)

One of the week's bigger spreads also looks like one of the safest. 

While it isn't getting the most publicity for some reason, the New Orleans Saints continue to terrorize the rest of the NFL while shredding the schedule. Winners of seven in a row after taking two understandable losses against Minnesota and New England to start the season, the Saints are quietly one of the most well-rounded teams in football. 

The Saints defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in a game since Week 6, in large part because the Drew Brees-led offense is simply dominant. The man under center has played well, but most of the credit goes to Mark Ingram, owner of 672 yards and seven touchdowns, as well as Alvin Kamara, owner of 417 and four. 

As if the Saints needed any help giving bettors an easy pick this week, take a look at the difference between the injury reports, as captured by JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington: 

By comparison, Washington is simply all over the place. The team picked up a win in Seattle, but it's the only victory in the team's last four outings—the three losses came by a minimum of eight points each. Before this outlined time frame, Kirk Cousins and Co. only beat the San Francisco 49ers by two points. 

It's a long way of saying the Redskins haven't developed an identity. Cousins is completing 66.5 percent of his passes, but his ground game averages less than four yards per carry and his cast of weapons hasn't stepped up through the air, which would explain why running back Chris Thompson leads the team in receiving. 

High-percentage checkdowns and a defense coughing up 25.8 points per game are two factors that simply won't work on the road against a team like the Saints. Look for the Saints to grab their eighth win in a row comfortably. 

Prediction: Saints 30, Redskins 17

New England (-7.5) at Oakland

The Oakland Raiders seem to know what awaits them Sunday. 

As expected, the New England Patriots are rolling once again behind the arm of Tom Brady, who, as some Raiders will point out, just added Martellus Bennett to his cast of weapons alongside guys like Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan, not to mention a deep backfield. 

"They're loaded," Raiders safety Reggie Nelson said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). "They just picked up Bennett, got 'Gronk', Hogan ... there's a lot of them. Like I said, we've got our work cut out."

Which isn't to say this game won't be somewhat competitive and chippy, as the league noted: 

But as this one stretches on, the better team won't have a problem pulling away. 

Said better team is clearly the Patriots, winners of five in a row, most recently blowing away the Denver Broncos on their own field, 41-16. These Raiders have won two of their last three but sit at 4-5. Marshawn Lynch (3.8 yards per carry) hasn't provided the boon most expected, and Amari Cooper has fallen off the map, catching only 38 of 77 targets. The offensive funk has Derek Carr at all of 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. 

It's smooth sailing for Brady by comparison, who has 19 touchdowns and two interceptions with multiple scoring passes going to five different players. He's had to compensate for a struggling defense, but even that unit hasn't allowed more than 17 points in a game since Week 4. 

As such, this is an easy line for the Patriots to hit as the Oakland offense provides an assist to a New England offense that can't be stopped. 

Prediction: Patriots 30, Raiders 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.