Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds, Betting Pick

As they are with many of their SEC rivals as of late, the Alabama Crimson Tide are dominating the recent series with the Mississippi State Bulldogs, winning the last nine meetings outright, going 6-3 against the spread. Alabama shoots to make it 10 in a row against MSU on Saturday night.

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 14.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 42.0-25.5 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide reached 9-0 on the season with their 24-10 victory over LSU last week. Alabama grabbed an early 7-0 lead and got close to covering the 20-point spread at 21-3 in the third quarter. But the Tide couldn't quite close the deal and instead settled for a 23rd consecutive SEC win.

Alabama actually got outgained by the Tigers 306-299 and outrushed 151-116. But that's the first time that's happened this season.

The Tide have won the last two meetings with Mississippi State by a combined score of 82-9.

At 6-0 in SEC play this season, Alabama is trying to close out another SEC West title and secure another berth in the College Football Playoff.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Since taking those back-to-back losses to Georgia and Auburn back in September, the Bulldogs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, following their 34-23 non-conference victory over UMass last week. Mississippi State led early 7-0, fell down 20-13 at the half but scored the first 14 points out of the locker room and later iced the game on Deddrick Thomas' 83-yard punt return for a score.

On the day the Bulldogs outrushed the Minutemen 254-127. But three MSU turnovers led directly to 10 UMass points, which certainly helped keep the underdog in the game.

Meanwhile, the Mississippi State defense only gave up one Minuteman offensive touchdown and has now allowed just five offensive touchdowns over its last four games.

The Bulldogs have also now outgained and outrushed each of their last four opponents.

Smart pick

There's not too much doubt as to the winner of this game; the only things that really matter are the spread and the final margin of victory. Ultimately, the Crimson Tide are 9-2 ATS over their last 11 road games because that's where the spreads aren't as prohibitive. Smart money here bets Alabama.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of Alabama's last 10 games against Mississippi State.

Mississippi State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.

Alabama is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games in November.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.