Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs Odds, College Football Betting Pick

Since becoming Big 12 rivals the TCU Horned Frogs are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in the series with the Texas Longhorns. TCU shoots for more of the same when it hosts improving an Texas for an important Big 12 bout Saturday evening in Fort Worth.

College football point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.3-24.9 Horned Frogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

The Longhorns are rather quietly one of the best bets in college football this season, going 6-1-1 against the spread. Last week Texas beat Baylor 38-7 and covered as a 10-point favorite. The Longhorns took an early lead on a pick-six less than a minute into the game, pushed that to 21-7 into halftime and pulled away from there, reaching 3-2 in conference play.

On the day Texas outgained the Bears 427-249, outrushed them 171-31 and won the turnover battle 3-1.

Two weeks ago the Longhorns fell to Oklahoma State in overtime 13-10 but covered as seven-point 'dogs. Just before that they lost late to Oklahoma 29-24 but covered as nine-point dogs. In fact, since that season-opening loss to Maryland, Texas has cashed every week but one, when it pushed against Kansas State.

With a late run and a little help Texas could still make the Big 12 Championship Game.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs are looking to bounce back after suffering their first loss of this season, a tough 14-7 defeat at Iowa State last week. TCU trailed the Cyclones at the half 14-0, returned the second-half kickoff for a touchdown but could get no closer against what is apparently a pretty good ISU team.

On the afternoon the Frogs outgained Iowa State 307-255 and outrushed the Cyclones 172-53. But they also turned the ball over three times, including once from the Iowa State 7-yard line and once from the ISU 3.

Also, 11 penalties for over 100 yards didn't help. Still, TCU has outrushed each of its eight opponents this season by a per-game average of 195-77.

At 4-1 in conference play the Frogs are tied with Iowa State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for first place in the Big 12. And while they don't own the tiebreaker on the Cyclones, they do on the Cowboys.

Smart pick

This has the makings of a good one, and a touchdown could come in handy. Also, thanks in part to point spreads laced with a bit too much home-field advantage TCU is only 1-3 ATS at home this season, while Texas is 3-0 ATS on the road. Smart money here likes the Longhorns.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in four of Texas' last five games against TCU.

The visiting team is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games in this matchup.

TCU is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.