Metrics 101: Best Bargain Buys in 2017-2018 MLB Free Agency
We're still a few weeks away from the annual Black Friday madness, but it's not too early to talk about bargains.
MLB bargains, that is—impending free agents with the stats and talent to indicate high-impact potential, but with enough perceived warts or market vulnerabilities to be had for fewer years and dollars than they might deserve.
These aren't the huge-ticket stars sure to command top dollar, nor are they scrubs scratching for spring training invites.
Rather, the list features a couple of high-upside NL West right-handers, a pair of power-hitting first basemen, a recently elite catcher, a fallen superstar right fielder who surged late in 2017, and a top-tier middle infielder who may get lost amid the ongoing shortstop revolution.
RHP Jhoulys Chacin
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The 3.89 ERA and 4.26 FIP Jhoulys Chacin posted in 2017 don't scream "elite." The fact that he toiled for the lowly San Diego Padres doesn't boost his profile.
Yet, among prospective free-agent starting pitchers, Chacin posted the third-lowest hard-contact rate at 28.5 percent, better than Jake Arrieta (29.4) or Yu Darvish (33.1).
That's not to suggest Chacin is a better pitcher than either of those aces. But while Arrieta and Darvish will command long-term commitments in excess of $100 million, Chacin could probably be had on a short pact for manageable dollars while profiling as a solid mid-rotation arm.
DH/1B Carlos Santana
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Maybe it's because his Google search results are buried by his famous musician namesake, but Carlos Santana seems to be perpetually underrated.
Sure, he's a plodding slugger in an era when that skill set isn't as valued. But he augments his pop with a robust .365 career on-base percentage, and he's quietly turned himself into a competent first baseman who posted 10 defensive runs saved at the position for the Cleveland Indians last season.
1B Logan Morrison
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Sticking at first base, Logan Morrison is another under-the-radar candidate who brought significant value in 2017.
The 30-year-old posted career highs in home runs (38) and OPS (.868) while posting 3.3 fWAR.
Like Santana, that should be enough to get him a multiyear deal worth far more annually than the $2.5 million the Tampa Bay Rays paid him last season.
His .245 career average and journeyman reputation will balance his breakout, however, and should keep his price in the middle range.
If the 666th overall pick in the 2005 draft can come close to replicating his 2017 output, the middle range would be a major bargain.
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C Jonathan Lucroy
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The first of two Colorado Rockies on this list who are likely to sign short-term contracts, Jonathan Lucroy represents an intriguing gamble at a premium position.
Lucroy was an All-Star catcher as recently as 2016 and finished fourth in National League MVP voting in 2014.
Last season, his stock plummeted, as he posted an anemic .667 OPS before the All-Star break with the Texas Rangers.
His numbers rebounded after a trade deadline swap to the Colorado Rockies, slashing .276/.395/.381 in the second half.
Prospective buyers will note that part of Lucroy's rebound happened in the thin air of Coors Field and that the 31-year-old went from being one of the game's elite receivers to the sixth-worst pitch-framer in baseball, per StatCorner.
Lucroy's days as an MVP contender and WAR darling are likely over. His second-half rebound provides some hope that he can again be an above-average offensive catcher. He was 16th in pitch-framing among 114 rated catchers in 2016, per StatCorner. His 2017 free fall in that department may have been a blip.
On a one-year deal at "show me" prices? He's worth a roll of the dice.
RF Carlos Gonzalez
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The other Rockies player on our radar, Carlos Gonzalez essentially flunked his contract year.
The three-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner posted full-season career lows in average (.262) and OPS (.762) and put up minus-three defensive runs saved in right field.
That's the bad news.
The good news is that Gonzalez rebounded to post a .921 OPS in the second half and hit .377 with six home runs in September.
He didn't get a chance to prove himself in a deep postseason, as the Rockies were bounced in the NL Wild Card Game. Still, it was a nice turnaround for a once-elite hitter.
Critics will note that the 32-year-old Gonzalez hit .203 with a .606 OPS away from Coors. Hence the reason he should sign elsewhere on a one-year "show me" deal and, like Lucroy, seek to rebuild his value.
And hence the reason a team looking for a reclamation project with pedigree and upside should pounce.
SS Zack Cozart
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It'll be interesting to see if the Cincinnati Reds extend Zack Cozart a qualifying offer, and if they do, whether or not he accepts.
At first glance, the notion of Cozart settling for a one-year deal seems absurd.
The 32-year-old posted a .933 OPS with 24 home runs and was third among shortstops with 5.0 fWAR, second only to the Indians' Francisco Lindor (5.9 fWAR) and Los Angeles Dodgers' Corey Seager (5.7 fWAR). By all rights, teams should be backing up a Brink's truck.
This is the golden era of the shortstop, however, and most top-spending and top-contending teams are set at the position. In a world that features Lindor, Seager, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Brandon Crawford et al, the demand for shortstops isn't high enough to incite a bidding war.
That said, Cozart's bat and glove would be a boon to any club, and if he refuses the qualifying offer and can be had for below market rate, someone will happily ante up.
RHP Tyler Chatwood
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Tyler Chatwood owns a 4.31 ERA in six MLB seasons. He's undergone two Tommy John surgeries. He's got "risk" scribbled all over him.
There's ample reward in the 27-year-old right-hander as well.
Chatwood posted a 3.12 ERA in September and a 3.49 mark away from Coors. He also led all prospective free-agent starters with an average fastball velocity of 94.6 and a ground-ball rate of 57.2 percent.
He was demoted to the bullpen at one point but fought his way back into the rotation.
"He came back with a mindset of, 'I'm not going to beat myself. I'm gonna go after people and trust my stuff in the hitting area,'" Colorado manager Bud Black said in mid-September, per Nick Groke of the Denver Post.
The injury history and uneven results will cost Chatwood a big payday. The stuff and potential to front a rotation, especially outside the Mile High air, make him a bargain arm to watch.
All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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