Lakers-Celtics: The Four X-Factors of the NBA Finals

As I was sitting down to write this column, it being my first, I was wondering different ways to start it off.  I could have jumped right into it and just started rambling on about all the thoughts, match-ups, predictions I have in my head.

I could have pointed out the obvious, such as, "The Lakers have the best player on the planet, so they should win" theory, or the "Celtics have three all-stars on their team, so they have a clear advantage" theory.

But the moment I sat down to write this column, I could only think of one term that is used so often in sports, but very seldom is it talked about properly.

The X-Factors

So before we get to them, let's go through the match-ups, advantages, and disadvantages.  Put your seats back and trays in the upright position...

Let's start by throwing out both teams' starting lineups and comparing them.

For the Lakers:  PG Derek Fisher, SG Kobe Bryant, SF Vladimir Radmanovic, PF Lamar Odom, C Pau Gasol

For the Celtics:  PG Rajon Rondo, SG Ray Allen, SF Paul Pierce, PF Kevin Garnett, C Kendrick Perkins

Right away two things jump out at me: 

1. If Ray Allen guards Kobe Bryant all series, Kobe will literally average 46 a game...and that's low-balling Kobe.  There is no possible way for them to match-up with the Lakers properly without James Posey on the floor. 

Odom and Garnett are going to guard each other. OK. Kendrick and Gasol, Rondo and Fisher.  OK. 

Then herein lies the problem: Paul Pierce HAS to guard Kobe in this series when Posey is not on the floor, so that leaves Ray Allen checking the 6'10" Radmanovic.  Does anyone else see a problem here? 

Well, you say, "So put Paul Pierce on Radmanovic and let Ray Allen guard Kobe; Allen is an All-Star!"

OK, well considering Joe Johnson made Ray Allen look like a 50-year old trying to lace 'em up at the schoolyard with 20-somethings who are throwing down "Birthday Cakes" and "360 Windmills," imagine what the most gifted offensive player in the world would do to him. 

It can't happen this way.  If Doc Rivers is at least a half-decent coach, he needs to play this nucleus way more minutes then he has: Rondo-Pierce-Posey-Garnett-Perkins.

This lets Pierce (a very underrated defender) guard Kobe, and the 6-foot-9 Posey check Radmanovic or Luke Walton.

In my opinion, the Celtics should use Ray Allen much like New Orleans used Janero Pargo, or the way the Suns use Leandro Barbosa. He needs to be an energy offensive guy, because when he gets hot, there is not a better shooter in the league.

2. The second thing that stands out to me right away is the Garnett-Odom match-up.  I'm still undecided as to who has the upper hand here.

Conventional wisdom tells me Garnett, because A) he's a million-time All-Star, B) he is the league's best defender, and C) his post game is phenomenal.  But then I examine it a little closer and take it from Lamar's end. 

Lamar Odom has the ability to stretch the floor and bring Garnett away from his home around the paint.  Garnett has to respect Odom's jumper, because he will take it and make it without hesitating. This frees up so many more lanes for Kobe and Fisher/Farmer. 

Now on the other end, Garnett's post game is way more superior to Odom's.  And Garnett is a little stronger than Odom, so he may be able to muscle him around a little bit on the block.

This match-up is so critical, because the Lakers can win on an off-night from Kobe.  Kobe can go for 19 with 5 assists and 4 rebounds (I wish that was my off-night) and the Lakers have enough depth to win.

However, I feel that if Lamar Odom has an off night, (8-5-2) something along those lines, the Laker's are going to struggle. 

In the three games they've lost in the playoffs so far here are Odom's PTS-REBS-AST:

Game 3 Jazz 13-12-1, despite 34 from Kobe;

Game 4 Jazz 26-13-2, good game form Odom, just a better game from the Jazz as they shot 53 percent and shot 20 more free throws then the Lakers;

Game 3 Spurs 7-11-6 despite 30 from Kobe.  Take that overtime game away because it was a tough loss and that's an average of 10-11.5-3.5.

The 3.5 assists per loss is the key factor.  Odom needs to be in the 16-12-5 range, and the Lakers will be golden. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, your first X-Factor:  Lamar Odom

Since you are all dying to know, I have 4 X-factors planned.  And the next is a Boston Celtic by the name of James Posey.

You ask why Posey instead of one of the Big Three?  Well because A) The Big Three are going to be there and play consistently, B) Posey's the only one whose won a championship on that team, with the exception of the late-season addition of Sam Cassell, and C) Posey is going to have to be the guy that keeps Kobe from playing out of his mind (which he is doing right now).

As I mentioned before, if the C's want to win this series, they have to play Posey on Kobe for a majority of the game.

(James, I hope you did wind-sprints all last week while we had a nice vacation from hoops, so everyone pretty much forgot about it and we were forced to watch Celtics-Lakers classic battles all week instead of now basketball, but I wasn't complaining...nothing beats C's vs The Lake Show in the 80s.)

Posey is the only one on the team who can mildly frustrate Kobe when he has the ball, and I say mildly because Kobe is going to wind up averaging 30 this series either way, it's pretty much guaranteed.  But hey, good luck James...

Ladies and Gentlemen Your second X-Factor: James Posey

Halfway through the X's and I'm feelin' good...let's get to the next one:

Its obvious throughout the series that Kobe Bryant is going to wind up guarding Paul Pierce, because Paul is the only one who can continuously create his shot by himself, and Kobe is a world class defender. 

But another Laker 2-guard is rapidly growing into a fine NBA defender and that's Sasha Vujacic.  Sasha is the modern day Bruce Bowen, only quicker, and can stroke it from anywhere...not just the corner. 

I say he's the modern day Bruce Bowen because Bowen is one of the most aggravating players to watch or play against.  If you watch Bowen play, he does everything that a smart-annoying player does, he pulls jerseys, he trips people, he gives unnecessary nudges and elbows...anything he can do to frustrate an offensive player, and this is why he is effective.

Well, good old Sasha has adopted a similar style.  When you watch Vujacic this series, watch him on defense, he's always grabbing and putting his hands in your stomach...doing all the little things to aggravate a shooter/scorer.

This is why I believe Ray Allen may have his worst playoff series yet, even worse than he had against Cleveland or Atlanta.  Now Ray is a veteran and he won't let someone like Vujacic get under his skin too badly, but Sasha knows just enough to be able to frustrate Ray to maybe throw off his confidence.

Oh, I almost forgot...Vujacic hits threes in real life like I'm playing NBA Live 99 with Reggie Miller.  It's unbelievable.  Every time I see him touch the ball and start to raise up, it goes in.

He's becoming a pretty darn good clutch shooter, which is why his minutes are up.  Sasha does two things to fulfill every coach's dreams: He can defend, and he can stroke at will...

Our third X-Factor: Sasha (Baby Bowen) Vujacic

The last X-Factor is a major shocker.  This is because he decided to show up last series for the Boston Celtics, and if he plays the way he did last series against the Lakers, then this thing could be swung in a completely different direction than the way everyone is picking.

Kendrick Perkins came out to play-yay last series against Detroit, and he really is the reason that they won that series—especially the last three games.  The man had double-doubles at HALFTIME.

Granted, McDyess isn't the same defender he used to be, but he's still pretty solid and Perkins went to town on the glass against him.

This series might pose a different problem, considering Gasol is way longer and taller than McDyess, but there's no doubt in my mind that he can own the glass this series as well.

The one area where the Lakers are weak is their interior defense and rebounding. This serves well for the Celtics, because Garnett snatches anything within a seven-foot radius, and with Perkins playing the way he is right now, expect to see big rebounding numbers for the Celtics front line.

My prediction for Perkins...averaging a 12-12 for the series.  If he can do that than the Celtics just might wind up winning this thing.

Ladies and Gents, our final X-Factor:  Kendrick Perkins

Now that I've spilled my theories, match-ups, and X-factors, it's time for the final prediction.  This series is going to be closer than people think, but when it comes down to picking a series like this its very simple.

The Celtics are a great team, and they might have won against any other team in the league, but as far as me and the rest of the world is concerned, Kobe Bryant is the best player on the planet. 

You don't go against that, along with a stellar cast/bench.  I think Kobe is too much for the Celtics to defend this series, even with Boston sporting three All-Stars...

Game 1: Lakers steal one on the road: Lakers 95, Celtics 90

Game 2: Celtics 100, Lakers 90

Game 3: Lakers 99, Celtics 88

Game 4: Lakers 101, Celtics 98

Game 5: Celtics extend the series:  Celtics 94, Lakers 89

Game 6: Lakers 105, Celtics 102

Lakers win 4-2, and are your 2008 NBA Champions.