Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Odds, Betting Pick

With 11 wins over the last 12 meetings the Wisconsin Badgers now lead the all-time rivalry with the Illinois Fighting Illini 40-36. Wisconsin is also 5-2 against the spread over the last seven encounters. The unbeaten Badgers will try to fend off an upset bid from Illinois on Saturday afternoon.

College football point spread: The Badgers opened as 23.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 46.8-5.2 Badgers (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread

The Badgers reached 7-0 on the season last week with a 38-13 victory over Maryland. Wisconsin took a 7-0 lead with a pick-six three minutes into the game, and it had a 24-point spread covered with a 28-3 third-quarter advantage. The Badgers then took their foot off the gas, let the Terrapins get within 35-13, but kicked a field goal on a 4th-and-1 from the Maryland 15-yard line with 36 seconds left to steal the cash.

Wisconsin outgained the Terps 440-268, outrushed them 215-143 and went nine-of-14 on third-down and fourth-down conversions. Meanwhile the defense scored six points and came up with a key early stop from its own 5-yard line, holding Maryland to a field goal in a 7-0 game.

The Badgers have still outgained and outrushed every opponent this season.

Wisconsin is also 2-0 both SU and ATS on the road this season, covering spreads of 14 and 13 points at BYU and Nebraska, and 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over its last eight road trips.

Why the Illinois Fighting Illini can cover the spread

The Illini, who started 2-0 this season, are now trying to stop a five-game losing streak. But they've been in the last few games, including last week's 24-17 defeat at Minnesota. The Illini played the Gophers to a 10-10 tie late into the fourth quarter but gave up two scores in 10 seconds, the second coming on a pick-six, to fall down. Still, Illinois drove to a consolation touchdown with 20 seconds left and covered as a 14-point dog.

The Illini got outgained by the Gophers but only by a margin of 339-282.

Two weeks ago Illinois lost to Rutgers 35-24, but actually outgained the Scarlet Knights on the day. And just before that the Illini fell to Iowa 45-16 but that game was 24-16 through three quarters, and Illinois outgained the Hawkeyes as well. How long can they hang around Saturday?

Smart pick

Wisconsin is 7-0 and hasn't yet played its best football. Illinois meanwhile, is young, playing two quarterbacks, and still going through a severe case of growing pains under coach Lovie Smith. Smart money here bets the Badgers.

College football betting trends

Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Illinois.

The total has gone over in three of Wisconsin's last four games against Illinois.

Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games on the road.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.