10 Hitters Who Will Break Out as Next Wave of MLB's Home Run Explosion
Fueled by rising young stars, MLB's power takeover is showing no signs of deteriorating.
The 32 teams combined to hit a record-setting 6,105 home runs in 2017. Forty-one players, led by Giancarlo Stanton's 59, went deep at least 30 times.
Unprecedented rookie surges stoked the flames. Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins and Matt Olson each rounded the bases 11 or more times in a single month, giving the sport four sluggers capable of sustaining the fly-ball revolution.
They will have more company in 2018. In fact, all four players should have a teammate highlighted as a power breakout candidate, barring a trade.
With so many younger hitters aiming to go deep, often with a high strikeout rate in the process, nobody mentioned is older than 27. While the selections were made primarily with 2018 in mind, the list features a few prospects yet to play a major league game. Some newcomers who took a backseat to Judge and Co. are also poised for progress.
Given the prevalence of power, even some 25-homer contributors with the ability to hit 35 received recognition.
Remember for these purposes, it doesn't matter if a pick hits .220 and strikes out 220 times. As long as he's hitting dingers.
Honorable Mentions
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A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros
A.J. Reed certainly would have headlined any article with the same premise two years ago. After demolishing minor league pitching in 2015, the Houston Astros first baseman had fans envisioning a future masher joining Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.
When given an opportunity, he batted .164/.270/.262 in 45 games. Although he amassed 34 homers in Triple-A, the Astros had no openings to afford him a second chance.
Perhaps they can use him as an offseason trade chip, as Reed still wields tantalizing power despite his disappointing debut.
Wilmer Flores, INF, New York Mets
Yet to hit 20 homers in a single season, Wilmer Flores feels like an odd inclusion. The 26-year-old infielder, however, made tangible strides during a season prematurely ended by breaking his nose on a foul ball.
Along with hitting a career-high 18 homers in just 362 plate appearances, his hard-hit rate catapulted to 35.4 percent. His 45.7 fly-ball rate represented a personal best, and his pop-up rate dipped to its lowest mark since 2014.
Flores is a prime candidate to hit 25 deep flies if given a regular role, which would lead observers to dismissively conclude that everyone is doing it these days.
Christin Stewart, OF, Detroit Tigers
Christin Stewart hit six home runs among 37 fly balls in 24 games for the Detroit Tigers' Double-A system last year. Spending all of 2017 at that level, he hit 28 homers despite his fly-ball rate normalizing to a healthy 43.4 percent
The 23-year-old outfielder can rake, and the rebuilding Detroit Tigers probably won't have much at stake next year. Even if he struggles, he should generate some power following a midseason promotion.
Christian Walker, 1B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
In the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Christian Walker hit .309/.382/.597 and circled the bases 32 times. Added to the Arizona Diamondbacks' 40-man roster for a September call-up, the 26-year-old could be an in-house fallback plan if superstar free agent J.D. Martinez signs elsewhere.
Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners
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Some will protest that Mike Zunino already broke out by clubbing 25 home runs in 435 plate appearances. Let's get greedy and ask for more.
A popular candidate to one day lead all catchers in deep flies after being drafted third overall in 2012, the career .209 hitter first needed to solve the pesky problem of making contact. Despite a career-high 36.9 strikeout percentage, he batted .251/.331/.509 with some help from a .355 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
He also set a career high in hard-hit rate (38.6) with a 90.3-mph average exit velocity. He hit 107 of his 228 batted balls at least 95 mph with 33 barrels, classified as a ball struck at least 98 mph with the optimal launch angle to produce a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
When he gets hold of a baseball, he makes it count. With an average home run distance of 412 feet, he does not require any assistance from Safeco Field.
The Seattle Mariners catcher made this progress despite entering June with one home run. His all-or-nothing approach will yield drastic peaks and valleys, but the best version of Zunino notched a .943 OPS (with a rise in walks and decrease in strikeouts) during a sizzling second half.
Don't make the mistake of prorating those numbers over a full season. The 26-year-old will have more stretches in 2018 when he struggles to put anything into play.
Yet the hot finish will ensure him more playing time, making him a strong candidate to challenge for the position's top spot with over 30 homers.
Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees
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Two seasons ago, Sanchez catapulted to the top of MLB's catcher hierarchy with 20 homers in 53 games. He was not even the New York Yankees' best position player logging his first full season in 2017, as Judge set a rookie record with 52 long balls.
Greg Bird is about to make their lineup even scarier.
Before both of those studs emerged, the first baseman clobbered 11 home runs in 46 games with a .529 slugging percentage in 2015. He missed all of 2016 with a torn right shoulder labrum, and an ankle injury cost him nearly four months this year.
He proved worth the wait, belting 10 long balls—including two in the American League Division Series—since returning in late August. The 24-year-old has gone yard 20 times in 348 regular-season plate appearances with a 51.9 fly-ball percentage and 40.6 hard-hit rate.
Bird boasts an average batted-ball distance of 224 feet with a 20.8-degree launch angle. He's also a left-handed hitter who plays his home games in Yankee Stadium.
A 30-homer campaign is hardly a stretch if Bird can stay healthy in 2017. As a slugger who regularly elevates the ball with loud contact, that would make a relatively safe projection if not for concerns about him staying on the field.
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
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Playing time is all Jesus Aguilar needs to develop into a high-impact slugger.
With Eric Thames playing first base against right-handed pitchers for the Milwaukee Brewers, the right-handed reserve amassed 16 homers and a .505 slugging percentage in 311 plate appearances. For skeptics wondering if he merely succeeded in a well-fitting platoon role, he went deep 11 times against righties.
Aguilar, who hit 30 home runs in Triple-A the previous year, earned a roster spot with a standout spring. When the games counted, he generated a 45.2 hard-hit rate and 411-foot average distance per home run.
While he'd hit lower than .265 in a featured role, the 250-pound bruiser would also make a serious push for 30 long balls. Then again, Thames remains under contract after submitting 31 blasts with a .359 on-base percentage. As of now, Aguilar is still stuck in the short end of a platoon.
These issues, however, often resolve themselves. If an injury or trade leads to an expanded role, MLB will witness the rise of yet another hulking first baseman.
Willie Calhoun, 2B/OF, Texas Rangers
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While Willie Calhoun may not have a position, his bat will stick somewhere.
The 5'8", 187-pound prospect is not like most youngsters with lofty power potential. He has hit 58 home runs over the last two seasons in Double-A and Triple-A, but not at the expense of contact. The 22-year-old joined the Texas Rangers as a career .286 minor league hitter with an 11.6 strikeout percentage.
If his future lies as a designated hitter, it's a good thing the Texas Rangers acquired him from the Los Angeles Dodgers as the top return for Yu Darvish. Formerly vying for a spot on a National League squad with a deep roster and a spacious home park, he will now swing at the Globe Life Park in Arlington.
Calhoun didn't make much of a splash when hitting .265/.324/.353 as a September call-up. He also hit 15 of his 27 batted balls on the ground, but let's not get carried away over 37 plate appearances.
If free agent Mike Napoli leaves, a vacancy will open either at DH or right field, depending on where Shin-Soo Choo plays. The Rangers should let their new acquisition fill the void.
Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics
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Matt Chapman did not even produce the best offensive display from an Oakland Athletics rookie corner infielder named "Matt." Yet Olson's stellar debut should not undermine his teammate's promising showcase.
Following a slow start, the third baseman recorded 14 home runs and a .516 slugging percentage in 72 second-half games. The 24-year-old was among eight position players to furnish fly balls on at least half of his batted balls after the All-Star break. A 19.9-degree average launch angle also shows his intent on clearing the fences.
His power has translated at each level. Before his June promotion, Chapman went yard 16 times in 49 Triple-A games. He tallied 36 homers in 2016 despite batting .237.
Strikeouts have also followed him, but Oakland won't mind if he draws walks and delivers dingers. Unlike most of its quintessential patient, low-contact sluggers, the 2014 first-round draft selection brings elite defense to the table. He accounted for 19 defensive runs saved during his rookie campaign, so he's without question an everyday player regardless of his batting average.
Although he won't go deep 13 times in a month like Olson in September, Chapman has the makings of a steady 30-homer hitter. The A's could lead the majors in home runs with a full season of Olson, Chapman and Khris Davis fueling their lineup.
Nicholas Castellanos, 3B/OF, Detroit Tigers
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A quick glance at Nicholas Castellanos' 2017 stats reveal 26 home runs and 101 RBI—looks like a productive middle-of-the-order bat already.
Those gains are driven by volume. He logged 665 plate appearances in 2017, the same amount as Kris Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt, by consistently batting in the Nos. 2-5 range for Detroit. While his .272/.320/.490 slash line is solid, it's a step back from 2016's .285/.331/.496 line accrued over 447 plate appearances.
There's also reason to believe he's capable of much more.
His 43.4 hard-hit rate ranked fifth among all qualified hitters behind Joey Gallo, Judge, Goldschmidt and Corey Seager. Statcast calculated an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .366, ahead of his actual .347 wOBA.
He even hit 10 triples, a bizarre tally only exceeded by the far quicker Charlie Blackmon and Billy Hamilton. As a result, he improved his isolated power for the fourth straight year.
Garnering more fence-clearing pop will unlock a full-fledged breakout. Yet as noted by FanGraphs' Scott Strandberg, he lost some fly balls for grounders and rarely achieved a launch angle conducive for home runs.
Castellanos will turn 26 next March. He plays every day, regularly hits the ball hard and teased a second gear by smashing 10 home runs in his final 37 games. He is some slight adjustments away from morphing into a top-tier slugger who annually wields a high average and 30-35 deep flies.
Dylan Cozens, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
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Before Hoskins joined the Philadelphia Phillies, he formed one half of the farm system's "Bash Brothers" with Dylan Cozens.
Like Hoskins, the 6'6", 235-pound Cozens is a big dude who pummeled minor league pitching. He devoured Double-A opposition with 40 home runs in 2016. Despite hitting an underwhelming .210/.301/.418 in Triple-A, the 23-year-old still produced 27 long balls and a 48.1 fly-ball rate.
When profiling both Phillies prospects before Hoskins' historic debut, Minor League Ball's Wayne Cavadi credited Cozens with "freakish athletic ability like Aaron Judge both in the field and on the basepaths." Although he also strikes out in spades, he has maintained a double-digit walk percentage in each of the last two seasons.
His power is for real. The question is whether he can cut back on the whiffs enough to contribute against big league pitching. A discouraging 2017 should not entirely close the book on a prospect with sky-high power upside, and Hoskins came with the same concerns of favorable minor league parks inflating his results.
A Triple-A rebound would earn Cozens an opportunity to unite with his slugging partner next year. Perhaps he looks more like 2016 Judge than 2017 Judge or Hoskins, but there's a path to Philadelphia enjoying another rookie homer spree.
Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres
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In a year of sensational introductions, Hunter Renfroe's rookie stint was hardly remarkable.
After slugging .800 in a torrid 11-game teaser in 2016, the corner outfielder batted .231 with a .284 on-base percentage and 0.3 WAR for the San Diego Padres. At least he also smacked 26 deep flies in 479 plate appearances.
Throwing in 2016's September stint, he already has 30 career long balls in 515 plate appearances amassed over 133 games.
While the 25-year-old must prove he's more than a one-dimensional player, his one dimension is the tool under examination. He gave Triple-A attendees 30 souvenirs in 2016, and he continued striving for high-impact swings with a 45.2 fly-ball percentage and 34 barrels.
Putting the ball in the air has yielded some unintended outcomes; his 15.1 infield-fly rate gives the opposition too many easy out. His steep splits are also concerning. Although the right-handed batter garnered 15 homers against same-handed pitchers, a .202/.244/.393 slash line could relegate him to the short end of a platoon.
The current iteration of Renfroe shows that long balls alone don't make a productive player. Yet the Padres should give him regular reps to develop. If all else fails, he could still hit 35 home runs with 600 plate appearances.
Tyler O'Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
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The Seattle Mariners will regret trading Tyler O'Neill.
When they sent him to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitcher Marco Gonzales in July, the 22-year-outfielder was hitting a mundane .244/.328/.479 with 19 homers in 93 Triple-A games. Following the atypical prospect-for-prospect swap, he turned on the jets with a dozen long balls and a 45.6 fly-ball rate over 37 contests.
He swiped double-digit bags in each of the last three seasons, but power is O'Neill's true calling card. The 2013 third-round pick had risen up Seattle's farm ranks with 32 deep flies in 2015 and an .882 OPS the following year.
After the trade, FanGraphs' Chris Mitchell said the Cardinals addition possesses a "similar array of strengths and weaknesses" as Bellinger, who set a Senior Circuit record with 39 home runs in his debut year. While O'Neill—ranked No. 86 on MLB.com's top prospect list—is not as highly regarded, he wields immense raw power.
Whiffs are a bigger concern for O'Neill, who incurred a 27.1 strikeout percentage in 2017. He also must break through a crowded St. Louis outfield already featuring Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Harrison Bader.
Yet the Cardinals are a meritocracy willing to bench a star for a 20th-round pick on a hot streak. The acquisition must prove he can hit for contact and handle himself defensively, but there's no doubting his ability to post gaudy homer tallies if given the chance.
Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox
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Eloy Jimenez turns 21 in November and played just 18 games in Double-A this year. He's the least likely highlighted player to make a major league impact—if he even gets promoted at all—next season.
He also has the most potential.
The centerpiece of a crosstown blockbuster that sent Jose Quintana from the Chicago White Sox to the Chicago Cubs, Jimenez finished 2017 as MLB.com's No. 4 prospect. After hitting .312/.379/.568 with 19 home runs in 89 games, he could take an express trip to the big leagues.
"I truly believe that I can be playing here right now," Jimenez said through an interpreter in September, per the Chicago Tribune's Colleen Kane.
Perhaps most impressively for this subject's purposes, he recreated The Natural by blasting a ball into the lights during a minor league home run contest. That's the type of pure power that led MLB.com to invoke Stanton's name in its scouting report.
Jimenez may not receive an extended look until 2019, and fans should not start expecting every newcomer to immediately dominate in light of Judge, Bellinger, Hoskins and Olson. Nevertheless, he has the smooth swing and undeniable strength necessary to deliver 40-homer seasons in his prime.
All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
