Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies: Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 3, 2017

Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts sets back to pass the ball before an NCAA college football game against Mississippi, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2017, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Since that memorable day five years ago when Johnny Manziel led them to victory in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, the Texas A&M Aggies are 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread versus the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The Aggies will play as big home dogs when they collide with the Tide on Saturday evening in College Station.

                 

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 24-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 48.7-18.3 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

                     

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

Alabama remains the top-ranked team in the land and on occasion a great bet, following its 66-3 massacre of Ole Miss last week. The Tide took a 7-0 lead five minutes into the game, led 21-3 after the first quarter and rolled on from there, easily covering a 30-point spread.

For the day, Alabama outgained the Rebels 613-253, outrushed them 365-88 and basically did whatever they wanted against a team that had beaten the Crimson Tide twice over the previous three seasons.

Two weeks ago, Alabama won at Vanderbilt 59-3, easily covering a 20-point spread. So that's a 125-3 run through its first two SEC games.

Finally, the Tide are averaging 316 yards per game on the ground this season, while allowing just 77.

                 

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

Since blowing that lead and losing at UCLA in Week 1, the Aggies are 4-0including a 24-17 victory over South Carolina last week. Texas A&M trailed the Gamecocks 17-7 late into the third quarter but then scored the last 17 points of the game for the win.

On the evening, the Aggies outgained South Carolina 396-279, won the ground battle 237-23 and held a 34/26 advantage in time of possession.

Freshman quarterback Kellen Mond threw for 159 yards and ran for 95, while running back Keith Ford rushed 12 times for 70 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner from 17 yards out midway through the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, the Texas A&M defense held the Gamecocks to two-for-14 on third- and fourth-down conversions and recorded seven sacks. The Aggies have now outrushed each of their five opponents this season by a 256-96 per-game margin.

                

Smart pick

Alabama owns a 12-game road winning streak, going 9-3 ATS in the process, in part because the spreads aren't as prohibitive. And A&M is starting a freshman at quarterback.

Smart money here bets the Tide on the college football point spreads.

               

College football betting trends

Texas A&M is 0-5 ATS in its last five games in Week 6.

The total has gone under in three of Texas A&M's last four games in October.

Alabama is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games on the road against teams with winning records.

                 

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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