Best Landing Spots for Top MLB Free Agents Not Headed to Playoffs
Given extended lives via midseason trades, J.D. Martinez and Yu Darvish can secure massive free-agent paydays with postseason prosperity. Team success often benefits individuals when exploring the open market.
Not every upcoming MLB free agent, however, has the opportunity to bolster his earning power in October.
With playoff dreams intact for most of the season, certain teams declined to exchange valuable players on expiring contracts. Now those guys can start mapping out the future.
Martinez, Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Eduardo Nunez, Todd Frazier, Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce are among many upcoming free agents with extra opportunities to embellish their portfolios. At least the Kansas City Royals stars headlining the crop of available players left behind attained their glory two years ago.
Now that the 2017 chapter is closed on these free agents who will not compete in the playoffs, let's search for their ideal landing spots.
Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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Alex Cobb defied the odds by playing out his entire eligibility with the Tampa Bay Rays. The same can't be said for Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, James Shields and David Price, all of whom were dealt before hitting the open market.
The team's longest-tenured pitcher avoided the same discarding because a jumbled American League Wild Card race kept them playoff contenders late into the summer. Since the small-market club is paying no more than $7.5 million to anyone other than Evan Longoria—who signed a team-friendly extension through 2023—it's highly unlikely the Rays will open their pockets for a starting pitcher who turns 30 this weekend.
Successfully returning from Tommy John surgery, Cobb posted a 3.66 ERA in a career-high 179.1 innings. Durability risks aside, he's one of few available impact starters when healthy. Tampa Bay will have a difficult time convincing him to return from a discount.
"The Rays aren't seen as having any chance to re-sign Alex Cobb," FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman reported last month, noting that the team offered him an extension above $40 million with two club options.
Back when a midseason trade looked probable, the Chicago Cubs stood out as a top destination. Cobb could not only reunite with manager Joe Maddon, but he could also maximize his ground-ball skills in front of an athletic defense.
While the Cubs instead landed Jose Quintana, they could lose Jake Arrieta and/or John Lackey this winter. Cobb represents a cheaper alternative to Arrieta, whom the Cubs could afford with Lackey's $16 million coming off the books.
Given their big budget and title aspirations, the Cubs are a sensible choice to gamble on Cobb's staying healthy and possibly finding another gear away from the AL East.
Best Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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The St. Louis Cardinals' rotation has a bright future with or without Lance Lynn.
Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Luke Weaver will headline the starting staff in 2018 and beyond. Rookie Jack Flaherty could join them later next year, and Alex Reyes could have the most upside of them all if he successfully returns from Tommy John surgery.
Brandishing a bounty of young, cost-effective options, they will not need to break the bank for a 30-year-old whose 4.82 fielding independent pitching (FIP) indicates future regression from 2017's 3.43 ERA. Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Lynn acknowledged that Thursday's start was likely the last appearance he would make for the Cardinals.
"Certainly looks that way," Lynn said. "Their numbers are not blocked on my phone."
If they do not sign Arrieta or Cobb, the Cubs could pay back their rivals for poaching Dexter Fowler and sign the right-handed starter. Of course, they are far from the only organization seeking pitching reinforcements.
The question is whether teams will treat him as a front-line upgrade despite this season's middling peripherals following a Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2016. MLB.com's Jim Duquette said "a five-year contract for around $90 million is not out of the question." That price should remove mid-level buyers like the Cardinals, Royals, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers from the mix.
The Texas Rangers, however, need a significant rotation boost to return to the playoffs. Even if Lynn's results decline in the AL, he's a drastic upgrade over Nick Martinez, A.J. Griffin and Miguel Gonzalez. While bringing back Darvish should remain their primary objective, Lynn would fit as a No. 2 or 3 starter.
Best Landing Spot: Texas Rangers
Shohei Otani, SP/OF, Japan
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The entire free-agent landscape was upended with reports, corroborated by Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan, that Shohei Otani will be posted by his Japanese club this winter.
As Passan also noted, the two-way star would forgo a huge payday by coming to the majors in 2018. New MLB guidelines prohibit the 23-year-old from testing a truly open market. Instead, he can sign for no more than $10.1 million, with teams such as the Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers capped at a maximum offer of $300,000 because of international spending limits.
This creates a bizarre competition in which the Oakland Athletics have more financial leverage than the Dodgers. Yet if Otani is sacrificing a massive contract that he could have earned by waiting two years, one must wonder how much the money will factor into his decision.
No team can be eliminated solely because of finances, which means all 30 squads should vie for his services. As a result, only those personally in touch with Otani could make accurate predictions for where he will play.
The Rangers started scouting him five years ago, shortly after signing fellow countryman Darvish, who also played for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. Bringing back Darvish and having him help recruit Otani to Texas is a dream scenario.
If Otani wants to optimize his championship chances and remaining earning power, the New York Yankees beckon. They have stockpiled international bonus money in hopes of enticing the "Japanese Babe Ruth," and adding Otani to their young core—more likely as a starting pitcher—would make them a lethal title contender for the next few years.
By attaining another young star for a considerable discount, the Bronx Bombers could then spend aggressively in next year's loaded free-agent class. They could develop a superteam by winning this contested pursuit.
Best Landing Spot: New York Yankees
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Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds
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Zack Cozart is a premier player at a premium position. Yet no big spenders need a new shortstop.
Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Trea Turner are playing postseason baseball. As are Addison Russell, Xander Bogaerts and Trevor Story—future fixtures despite underwhelming 2017 results. Who needs a shortstop and will pay top dollar to secure one?
Cozart deserves a huge raise after finishing fourth in WAR and second in weighted on-base average (wOBA) to Correa at the position. As everyone waited for the 32-year-old to regress, he instead hit 15 homers with a .388 wOBA after the All-Star break.
Cozart is also a career .254/.305/.411 hitter who made two trips to the disabled list in 2017. He has averaged 98 games played per season over the last three years, so he should not expect a long-term investment.
The Orioles have not backed away from awarding hitters after breakout years. However, they may also think twice about tying up salary with one year left on Manny Machado's contract. Kansas City makes sense for Cozart if it strikes out on its free agents.
With no perfect fit, the Cincinnati Reds could retain their breakout star. They first must decide whether to extend an $18 million qualifying offer. They should not fret about giving Cozart one well-compensated year to prove he's legit, and the veteran just might accept if the market is not buying his breakout.
Unless they reach an extension, that might represent the best scenario for both sides.
Best Landing Spot: Cincinnati Reds
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Kansas City Royals
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Sluggers have watched their market values depreciate, but Lorenzo Cain's skills are hard to find.
Many teams can use a center fielder batting .300 with an .803 OPS and proficient defense. He's also one of seven players who amassed 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases.
While the class features plenty of first basemen and corner outfielders with pop, Cain is comfortably the top center fielder available. Carlos Gomez, Cameron Maybin and Jarrod Dyson may be the only starting-caliber alternatives.
A source told Heyman that Cain is "gone" after he and the Royals could not come close in extension talks. Heyman speculated the Dodgers and Rangers as two teams in need of center fielders.
Perhaps the New York Mets are too frugal to address the need with a four-win addition. Don't write off the San Francisco Giants, who are committed to several veterans beyond a painful 2017 campaign but must move Denard Span from center after he posted minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved.
The Mariners will mostly be connected to pitchers, but they also have needs at center field. Dyson, a platoon player who stole 28 bases with 15 DRS, held up merely as an average hitter (.271/.342/.388) against righties.
Although the franchise might hesitate to add another well-compensated veteran to the payroll, it will also want to guide Felix Hernandez, Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano into the playoffs before the window closes. Acquiring Mike Leake in August allows the Mariners to pivot their focus to Cain this winter.
Best Landing Spot: Seattle Mariners
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
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The Royals will have plenty of competition to retain Mike Moustakas.
On the bright side, the Boston Red Sox no longer factor into the discussion after debuting Rafael Devers. Yet the Yankees may drool at the thought of adding a left-handed third baseman with 38 home runs. And they are not the only big-market club needing help at the hot corner.
No team had a worse OPS and WAR at third than the Giants, and the 29-year-old Moustakas is younger than most of their starting lineup. The Los Angeles Angels will want to replace Yunel Escobar with a potent hitter who can properly support Mike Trout, especially if the newly acquired Justin Upton utilizes his opt-out clause.
The Philadelphia Phillies have plenty of money to spend, and the Atlanta Braves may also be ready to take the next step to contention.
While no team needs him more than San Francisco, it already has over $163 million on its 2018 payroll before factoring in arbitration-eligible players. And Moustakas would likely command a $15-$20 million average annual salary.
Shackled by Albert Pujols' enormous contract, the Angels nonetheless can't afford to waste a once-in-a-generation superstar's best years. They lunged for a wild-card bid by acquiring Upton and Brandon Phillips in August deals, so look for them to pursue Moustakas heavily this winter.
Best Landing Spot: Los Angeles Angels
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
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For the third time in his career, Eric Hosmer posted a wOBA of .350 or higher with over 3.0 WAR. But previous seasons haven't gone as well as 2017.
After hitting .302/.353/.448 in 2013, he batted .270/.318/.398 with 0.0 WAR in 2014. Following 2015's .297/.363/.459 campaign, he staggered to a middling .266/.328/.433 and minus-0.1 WAR last year. So can anyone trust this season's progress to stick?
There will certainly be a market for a .318/.385/.498 hitter who played every game this season. Hosmer, who turns 28 later this month, ties Joey Votto for MLB's most games played in the last three years by missing just eight bouts. Age and durability will get him paid despite consistency concerns.
Also helping his case is that he could spark a bidding war between rich rivals. Mitch Moreland does not represent a long-term solution for Boston, creating a perfect fit with a big-market club. According to Heyman, the Yankees "are said to love Hosmer, who brings the kind of clutch and leadership they seek."
Hosmer tops the list of free agents Kansas City hopes to retain, per Heyman, and the team is prepared "to make a serious offer." Drafted No. 3 overall in 2008, he is one of several homegrown stars to guide the rebuilding Royals to the 2015 championship.
Cain is the oldest (31) of the three top free agents, and Moustakas comes with injury uncertainty after tearing his ACL last year. Hosmer alone won't lift the Royals to another pennant push. He may not even prevent them from bottoming out.
But the Royals still need him much more than the Red Sox or Yankees. With those AL East titans glancing forward to next year's free-agent crop, they shouldn't soar over the luxury tax for a career .284/.342/.439 hitter.
The Royals, on the other hand, may overpay in hopes of maintaining at least one franchise cornerstone.
Best Landing Spot: Kansas City Royals
All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Salary information obtained from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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