NFL Picks Week 3: Highlighting Best Vegas Odds and Expert Predictions

If NFL's Week 3 odds prove accurate, many fans will leave football stadiums angry.

Home-field advantage won't spare eight teams—not including the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are the listed home team at London's Wembley Stadium—from entering the slate as underdogs. Flip the locations of those contests and oddsmakers would project a handful of blowouts.

A rambunctious supporting crowd and a home-cooked meal can only help so much. Yet anyone looking to pick against the grain will take notice a road squad given a three-point edge. Some of those matchups have spurred diverging opinions among analysts and projection models.

Let's examine Week 3's odds, courtesy of OddsShark, and highlight three bouts where an inferior home team has a puncher's chance.

NFL Week 3 Odds

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (at Wembley Stadium)

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) at Chicago Bears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings (Spread not listed)

Denver Broncos (-3) at Buffalo Bills

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-6)

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Detroit Lions

Cleveland Browns (Even) at Indianapolis Colts

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-13.5)

Miami Dolphins (-6) at New York Jets

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-8.5)

Oakland Raiders (-3) at Washington

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

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At first glance, picking the Kansas City Chiefs over the Los Angeles Chargers is a lock. After all, they're 2-0 on the heels of humiliating the New England Patriots and defeating the Philadelphia Eagles. Both of those teams are better than the Chargers, who suffered two heartbreaking losses following missed field goals in the closing seconds.

This start will feel familiar for Chargers fans, who watched the team lose five games by four points or fewer last season. That does not include 2016 Week 1's 33-27 overtime loss, when the Chiefs overcame a 21-3 halftime deficit. 

Is falling short simply part of the Chargers' DNA? Per ESPN.com's Eric D. Williams, first-year head coach Anthony Lynn said otherwise on Monday: "We talked about that a little bit in our team meeting. Some people say, 'Same old Chargers.' It's not the same old Chargers. We lost a couple of close games. We have 14 games left. We'll see. We'll see at the end."

Perhaps their poor fortune will turn against a Chiefs side poised to produce its fifth straight winning season. CBS Sports' Pete Prisco suggested the Chargers' "desperation" will guide them to a 20-17 upset.

David Steele of Sporting News committed the gambler's fallacy in assuming they're due for better luck:

"To the Chargers' credit, though, the odds are good that they can't lose three in a row the same way, so doing what they've done to stay close to three decent-to-good teams in Denver and Miami could get them over the top against a Kansas City team that can't be stopped on offense so far."

While Los Angeles is the best 0-2 team, that won't help against a legitimate Super Bowl contender whose offense has reached new heights, with Kareem Hunt making a strong Rookie of the Year case and Alex Smith embracing the deep ball.

The Chargers should again compete against a tough team, but expect them to lose to the Chiefs for the seventh straight time.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24

Oakland Raiders at Washington

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The Oakland Raiders jumped to 2-0, but triumphing over the New York Jets doesn't count for much these days. Washington, on the other hand, went on the road to beat the rejuvenated Los Angeles Rams.

Nevertheless, Oakland has won 14 of its last 17 games with Derek Carr under center. He gets another exploitable opponent in Washington, who allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt to the Rams and Eagles.

Vegas does not think home field erases the gap between Oakland and Washington, but not everyone agrees. Retired offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz was one of three SB Nation analysts to side with the NFC East squad. Prisco likes Washington in a shootout, and FiveThirtyEight assigned it a 51 percent win probability.

The Sunday-night stage diminishes concerns over Oakland traveling across the country, especially since Washington also played Week 2's game in California. But that doesn't assuage fears over an Oakland defense ranked No. 27 in Football Outsiders' DVOA.

After combining for 222 rushing yards last week, Rob Kelley, Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine face a defense that has relinquished 4.8 yards per carry. Washington will win if its passing attack performs up to preseason expectations.

Oakland's lackluster linebackers would present the perfect opportunity for Jordan Reed, if he's able to play.

According to CSNMA's JP Finlay, head coach Jay Gruden didn't sugar-coat the tight end's status:

Washington needs all hands on deck to survive a shootout, so Oakland maintains the small upper hand.

Prediction: Raiders 34, Washington 31

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

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The oddsmakers would have determined a far wider spread if this game occurred in Week 2. Instead the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals both enter Monday Night Football at 1-1, with Dallas responsible for redeeming a 42-17 Week 2 loss to the Denver Broncos.

After getting stuffed at the line and allowing four passing touchdowns to Trevor Siemian, the Cowboys seem too vulnerable to comfortably trust as a road favorite.

Prisco predicted that Arizona will replicate Denver's blueprint of mitigating Dallas' run game: "The Cowboys are playing consecutive road games, while the Cardinals are playing their home opener. That's a tough combination. The book on slowing Dallas is out: Load up and dare Dak Prescott to beat them. This will be another game like that. Cards take it."

FiveThirtyEight backs his thinking by giving Arizona a 55 percent win probability. Not bad for a team that lost David Johnson in a 12-point Week 1 loss before defeating the Andrew Luck-less Indianapolis Colts—who lost by 37 in their opener—in overtime.

Arizona still isn't necessarily a popular upset candidate. While the San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears and Jets each received support from one contrarian, all nine of SB Nation's pickers selected the Cowboys.

Dallas shutting down the New York Giants sans Odell Beckham Jr. looks less impressive after it failed to muster much offense with their star receiver. Yet the Cardinals rank below Big Blue and all but five teams in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA. They averaged 3.3 yards per rush without Johnson against the Colts.

Carson Palmer posted a 96.0 quarterback rating at home last season, so the Cardinals could knock off the Cowboys at University of Phoenix Stadium. Perhaps that would be the pick with a healthy Johnson or more convincing victory over the Colts, but the Cowboys will bounce back as long as they avoid another early deficit. 

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Cardinals 20