2008 AFC North: Can The Baltimore Ravens Return To Glory?

Football ManiaxsJun 4, 2008

The AFC North is a division that has some of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams and their fans really do not like each other. The Bengals appeared to be poised to dominate the division after an 11-5 record with a young offensive core in 2005. The Steelers beat them in the Wild Card Round, won the Super Bowl, and appeared to be in complete control of the division. The Bengals have been irrelevant since. The Steelers didn’t even make the playoffs after their Super Bowl win, and the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens reemerged in 2006. Then the Ravens crashed to 5-11 as the Steelers took back the division. Forgotten, have been the Cleveland Browns, who came out of nowhere to win 10 games in 2007. They were one of the biggest surprises in 2007. As big free agency spenders, they look to take the division for the first time since 1989.

The AFC North has been a wide-open race the last few years. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC North. Part IV

Baltimore Ravens

'07 Record: 5-11

Points Scored: 334 (18th)

Points Allowed: 310 (11th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule: 141-115 (.551) (fourth (t) in NFL)

Strengths: It is really hard to find anything positive about the Baltimore Ravens' 2007 season. They were coming off a 13-3 season and had acquired RB Willis McGahee from the Bills. They were expected by many to compete with the top AFC teams for a possible Super Bowl birth. The Ravens started 4-2, before losing nine straight games, bottoming out by losing to the then winless Dolphins in Week 15. They beat the Steelers on the last day of the season to salvage a 5-11 campaign. The result was the end of the Brian Billick era and the hiring of John Harbaugh.

The strength of the Ravens starts with their defense. It has been that way since Ray Lewis arrived in 1996. Since 1999, the Ravens have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense six times and in the top 10 in yards allowed every year other than 2002. The Ravens were impossible to run the ball against last year. They were second in rushing yards allowed, first in yards per rushing attempt, and seventh in rushing touchdowns allowed.

The Ravens still have a great front seven. Haloti Ngata was a great pick at defensive tackle in the 2006 draft. Terrell Suggs is still a great pass rusher and will only be 26-years old in October. He had a down year with 5.0 sacks after consistently being in the 8-12 range. He must rebound. The million-dollar question is: how much does Ray Lewis have left in the tank? The nine-time Pro Bowler, and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer, turns 33 this season. He has not had 100 solo tackles since 2004, something he did six of the eight seasons prior to 2004. He must stay healthy for the Ravens to have their defense at its best.

The secondary is great when healthy. Ed Reed is still the best safety in the business. Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are both over 30-years old and were injured last season. That was the main reason why the Ravens finished 20th in passing yards allowed, and 26th in passing touchdowns allowed. Fabian Washington and Frank Walker were brought in to address secondary depth. They should stop the pass better in 2008.

On offense, the Ravens were able to run the ball behind Pro Bowler Willis McGahee. He had 1,207 yards and seven touchdowns in his first season in Baltimore. It was a great season given the cast around him. Ray Rice was a nice addition to back him up in the second round.

Other than McGahee, the Ravens had little to nothing on offense. They have a very anemic passing offense, evidenced by the 23rd ranking in passing yards and 28th ranking in passing touchdowns. The Ravens highest single-game point total was 30 points in 2008, and they scored under 20 points eight times. Matt Stover is a great kicker, but was all too many times the Ravens' best offensive weapon.

Weaknesses: Here is how bad the Ravens quarterback situation has been in the Ray Lewis era. Last year, Kyle Boller became the all-time Raven passing yardage leader with 7,846 yards, surpassing Vinny Testeverde, who threw for 7,148 yards in 29 games in 1996 and 1997. It took Boller 53 games and 42 starts to accumulate his passing yards. It took the Ravens 10 seasons to find a quarterback with enough staying power to surpass 7,148 yards.

The Ravens have never been able to throw the ball effectively. In 2008, they have three choices. Kyle Boller, who is the franchise’s all time passing yards leader. Joe Flacco is another choice. He is a rookie who played his college ball at the University of Delaware. The third option is Troy Smith, who is in his second year. He is a great leader and intangible guy who must prove to the Ravens that he possesses NFL skills. It is not exactly an all-star group.

Todd Heap is a good tight end, but he was injured for most of last season. He should rebound to give the Ravens a solid target in the middle of the field. Derrick Mason was solid as usual with 103 catches for 1,087 yards and five receiving touchdowns. The only question with him is age, as he is 34-years old. Mark Clayton looked to be poised for a breakout year in 2007. He regressed to 48 catches, 531 yards, and zero touchdowns.

The offensive line is going to be in a state of flux if Jonathan Ogden follows through on his retirement talk. He has reportedly told the Ravens not to expect him back. He is an 11-time Pro Bowler, nine-time All-Pro, and eventual first ballot Hall of Famer. It is hard to replace guys like him. Losing him is going to hurt this offense in terms of run production and protecting a young quarterback.

The Ravens didn’t have a lot of salary cap room to improve. They are going to have to improve from within to better their poor offensive showing from 2007.

Prediction: This is not the worst team in the league in terms of talent. It has a very solid defense with a below average offense. That should still win some games. However, they have a horrible schedule. They play the following scoring defenses in 2008: Colts (first), Steelers twice (second), Titans (eighth), Eagles (ninth), Jaguars (10th) Redskins (11th), Cowboys (13th). That doesn’t include the defending champion N.Y. Giants, a vastly improved Cleveland team, and Cincinnati, who went 2-0 against the Ravens in 2007.

I think that while there are some nice young players on defense, a few of the core players are starting to get up there in age. Ray Lewis has to play lights-out if this defense is going play at a high enough level for the team to compete. They are going to be playing either a bad quarterback or an inexperienced one, neither of which is a good thing. They have some nice pieces on offense, but nothing that will keep defensive coordinators up at night. McGahee can’t run effectively against eight people in the box, and Heap needs receivers to stretch the field and give him room in the middle. Mason is a solid threat, but doesn’t stretch the field. Ogden retiring would be a terrible blow to the offensive line.

The schedule is challenging and I look for four wins out of the Ravens. They will play teams tough and keep the score down, but I think the offense is just too weak. The good news is they had a good draft in '08, and if Flacco or Smith is the real deal at QB, they could put easily together a playoff contender in 2009 with another good draft, some free agent signings, and an easier schedule.

2008 Baltimore Ravens’ Record: 4-12 – AFC North fourth Place; No Playoffs