NFL Predictions Week 1: Odds Projections, Fantasy Stars to Target and More

If you're not a Kansas City Chiefs fan and thought the team would beat the New England Patriots by two touchdowns in the season opener, then you made one of the better NFL predictions in recent memory.

Many people picked the Pats to win, and they were nine-point favorites.

However, the Chiefs, led by quarterback Alex Smith, running back Kareem Hunt and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, scored 21 points in the fourth quarter en route to a 42-27 victory.

It goes to show that anything can happen (well, most anything) in NFL games and that the prevailing thoughts about a team or game could turn out to be all for naught.

We may see more surprises in the next few days as the rest of the NFL. Here's a look at some Week 1 odds, via OddsShark, fantasy stars to target (specifically, notes on fringe start/sit players in season-long and daily leagues) and picks for each game.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-8), 40 O/U

Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy is a clear start in season-long leagues, but he's a great play in daily games as well. Per Pro Football Reference, McCoy rushed for 5.79 yards per carry along with 11 touchdowns at home last year. He's the Bills' No. 1 offensive option and should get plenty of opportunities Sunday.

Otherwise, the Bills defense looks like a solid play against a New York Jets offense that may struggle all year.

Prediction: Buffalo 23, New York 9

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-3), 50.5 O/U

This game could challenge the Chiefs-Patriots matchup as the highest-scoring contest in Week 1. Both teams have excellent offenses featuring stud quarterbacks who can break games open.

On the Tennessee Titans, Marcus Mariota may end up being the top-ranked fantasy quarterback of the week not named Alex Smith, who might have that distinction on lockdown. Look for him to connect early and often with wideout Rishard Matthews and tight end Delanie Walker.

For the Oakland Raiders, signal-caller Derek Carr will find wideouts Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree all day as well. All are great plays for season-long and daily leagues.

Prediction: Tennessee 35, Oakland 27

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5), 39.5 O/U

On the flip side, if you like defensive football, then this game is for you. The Houston Texans might hold the Jacksonville Jaguars to single digits. Edge-rusher J.J. Watt is back to form and healthy after missing most of last season with a back injury.

He should lead Houston to a fantastic performance. The Texans defense is a front-runner for the No. 1 fantasy unit for Week 1.

Prediction: Houston 24, Jacksonville 3

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3), 41.5 O/U

If you like field goals, then this game could be for you. Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker is the best fantasy star to target in daily leagues (obviously you have him in season-long play).

The Ravens can move the ball against a Cincinnati Bengals defense missing cornerback Adam Jones and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, but on paper, Baltimore's offense looks like a bottom-half unit in the NFL this year. That could mean a few long field-goal opportunities for Tucker.

Prediction: Cincinnati 17, Baltimore 16

Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns, 47 O/U

This is a tough game to project, which is an odd thing to say about a matchup featuring a perennial playoff contender in the Pittsburgh Steelers and a team that hasn't made the postseason since 2002 in the Cleveland Browns.

However, Browns quarterback DeShone Kizer may provide his team with the energy it has sorely needed for years. He made some rookie mistakes in the preseason, but he also looked electric at times with some excellent throws and runs.

He's an interesting play, as are Browns wideouts Corey Coleman and Kenny Britt. But everyone is in play for the Steelers, who shouldn't have issue scoring. This will be close before Pittsburgh runs away late.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 34, Cleveland 17

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Chicago Bears, 48 O/U

The Atlanta Falcons trio of quarterback Matt Ryan, running back Devonta Freeman and wideout Julio Jones could have a big day against the Chicago Bears, but that's because their defense could give them many opportunities to score.

Atlanta's D looks improved from the end of last year, when they turned it on and played well until the end of the Super Bowl. It should shut down Chicago, which is missing No. 1 wideout Cameron Meredith, so expect the Falcons to control time of possession and have plenty of scoring chances.

Prediction: Atlanta 31, Chicago 13

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Redskins, 47.5 O/U

Don't be surprised if this contest becomes the sneaky shootout of the week. Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has a great weapon in wideout Terrelle Pryor, and tight end Jordan Reed will play.

On the Philadelphia Eagles side of things, quarterback Carson Wentz now has wideout Alshon Jeffery to target, and those two should connect plenty of times this season.

All are great fantasy plays in a game that should go down to the wire and feature a few touchdowns on each side.

Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Washington 23

Arizona Cardinals (-2) at Detroit Lions, 48 O/U

The two obvious plays are Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson and wideout Larry Fitzgerald.

In fact, you can stack them in daily fantasy leagues on the same team and not worry about them stealing points from each other, as they should both get plenty of opportunities against the Detroit Lions. Johnson will touch the ball 25-30 times, and Fitzgerald should see no fewer than 10 targets.

They'll lead Arizona to an early road win en route to a comeback season.

Prediction: Arizona 24, Detroit 17

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-4), 41.5 O/U

Two of the best players in football, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (shoulder) and Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (holdout), will not play in this game. On paper, this might be an ugly contest wherein few points are scored.

Rams running back Todd Gurley could have a big day on the ground if he finds his 2015 form, especially considering it's hard to envision the Colts controlling time of possession without Luck in the mix.

Prediction: Los Angeles 17, Indianapolis 10

Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at San Francisco 49ers, 47.5 O/U

Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey shares the backfield with Jonathan Stewart, but he might make the most of his opportunities on Sunday. The rookie looked fantastic in the preseason and is capable of breaking off a touchdown on any play. If the Panthers find ways to get him into space, it could be a long day for the San Francisco 49ers.

He's the best fantasy play from this game, but quarterback Cam Newton, wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen are also viable options.

Prediction: Carolina 35, San Francisco 10

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3), 51 O/U

One of the biggest mismatches of Week 1 occurs in this game, as the Seattle Seahawks wideouts could have big days against a Green Bay Packers secondary that struggled mightily last year and could do the same this year.

The pick here is that Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin will be the highest-scoring player of the week and that Russell Wilson will be a top-three fantasy quarterback. Their rapport and ability to connect on broken plays will be the difference.

Prediction: Seattle 31, Green Bay 24

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4), 47.5 O/U

These two teams combined to score just 56 points in two games last year, and it's unlikely the results this year will be much different.

The New York Giants defense is fantastic and a perfect foil to the Dallas Cowboys offense, as they have arguably the top run-stopping unit in football.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants offensive line did not look good in the preseason, and it could be a house of cards for the team.

Therefore, no one is a recommended fantasy play in this game.

Prediction: New York 20, Dallas 16

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5), 48 O/U

The New Orleans Saints may be away from the friendly offensive confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, but quarterback Drew Brees and wide receiver Michael Thomas will be one of the best quarterback-wide receiver connections in football this year. They won't have a breakout game against a tough Minnesota Vikings defense, but expect big things down the road.

Vikings wideout Stefon Diggs will be the difference as he hauls in short pass after short pass and moves the chains all game.

Prediction: Minnesota 21, New Orleans 20

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3.5), 42.5 O/U

If you're having second thoughts on the defense you picked in your draft, consider adding the Los Angeles Chargers, who are probably on a few waiver wires this year. Edge-rusher Joey Bosa is a budding star, and cornerback Casey Hayward is one of the best in the league at his position.

The Denver Broncos offense has struggled the last two years, and prospects doesn't look great for this season as well. The Bolts defense will lead them to the upset of the week.

Prediction: Los Angeles 23, Denver 14