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What Are the Comfort Levels for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 1?

Richard JanvrinSep 5, 2017

Week 1 of every football season is filled with plenty of unexpected twists and turns. From breakout players to unexpected victories, Week 1 is always one of the most entertaining weeks in the NFL.

Now the sport we all love is finally back, and we're keeping the apps open on our phones to watch our fantasy scores rise.

In your draft, you selected your fair share of studs—or at least guys you believed to be studs.

Without having a track record to look at, though, the only way to determine a stud for a brand-new season is to look at the usual suspects we've seen perform at a high-level for a longer period of time.

The following list is sorted in the following order: quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.

And don't worry—every single week after this one is going to be filled with some surprising participants.

Now, what better way to start this off than with who many consider to be the best fantasy football quarterback this season?

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

1 of 10

Like most of the players you'll find on this list, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a guy you must start Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks.

However, this isn't about whether you should start him or not but rather the comfort level in starting him.

Initially, when you think of the Seahawks defense, it causes some trepidation, but against Rodgers, it's a totally different story. 

The last time the Seahawks were at Lambeau Field was Week 14 of last season. In that game, Rodgers and the Packers put up a 38 spot, and Rodgers contributed nearly 250 passing yards and three touchdowns in that outing. 

While Seahawks safety Earl Thomas will be back for this game and the Seahawks recently acquired defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson, this shouldn't alter your feelings about starting Rodgers in this game. 

Collectively, the Seahawks defense and special teams unit was 14th in fantasy points per game on the road last season. 

Look, man, it's Aaron Freakin' Rodgers.

Comfort Level: A little kid in a race car bed

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

2 of 10

When you think of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and the Kansas City Chiefs, the first thought that comes to most people's minds is the 2014 game in which Brady was totally shellacked on live television.

But that is way in the rearview mirror now, of course. 

Now, in 2017, when the Patriots drop their fifth Super Bowl banner in their home opener against the Chiefs, Brady will be nothing short of, well, Brady-like.

Sure, Brady will be without Julian Edelman, but he still has guys like tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and newly acquired Phillip Dorsett at his disposal. 

In 2016, the Chiefs were fourth in fantasy points per game in games they were on the road while giving up only 247 passing yards per contest and having eight total interceptions. But, hey, it's Brady. At home. On opening night. When the Super Bowl banner drops.

What won't Brady do?

Comfort Level: An overpriced mattress that one has to finance to pay for

David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

3 of 10

In what should be a competitive contest, the Arizona Cardinals and their star running back, David Johnson, head into Detroit to take on the Lions.

In 2016, the Lions were actually a solid unit against the run, giving up only five rushing touchdowns—second fewest. They also gave up the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs at just over 16.

Looking at the backfield for the Cardinals, there is literally no threat to Johnson. In other backfields there may be concerns about a pass-catching back or maybe a red-zone vulture, but it's all Johnson for Arizona, especially following the release of fellow running back Chris Johnson. 

While the Lions may have given up only five rushing touchdowns last season, Johnson does a fair amount of his damage in the passing game. Sure, he can run the ball just fine, but he did average just 4.2 yards per carry.

In the passing game, however, he racked up 120 targets. As a running back.

Looking at the passing attack for the Cardinals, there are some question marks after wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Fellow receiver John Brown always seems to have some lingering issues, and the other pass-catchers aren't exactly top-flight starters, although, J.J. Nelson is an intriguing prospect, especially following the end of last season.

All in all, the Lions may not be push-overs in Week 1, but you'll definitely be comfortable starting David Johnson.

Comfort Level: The feeling of finally sleeping in your own bed after a week-long vacation

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Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

4 of 10

My dear lord, this could get ugly.

Being nearly 10-point favorites on the road, the Pittsburgh Steelers will play the Cleveland Browns in their place to seek their fifth straight win over their division rival dating back to 2014.

You know Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell is going to have a lot to do with that, right?

There is only one concern: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on the road. Whatever the reason—whether it's playing conservatively or something else—Big Ben doesn't exactly light up the scoreboard on the road. 

While that may be a concern—a tiny, tiny concern—ultimately, it won't matter.

Breaking news: The Browns still stink. Their defense is filled with a bunch of guys who have names you've never even heard of before.

Browns defensive lineman and No. 1 overall pick from this past draft, Myles Garrett is going to have his hands full trying to slow down Bell.

As Bell told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, he's preparing to touch the ball around 30 times in this one.

Watch that point total climb all afternoon long when Week 1 comes.

Comfort Level: A bed with six feet of memory foam...on a cloud...in Hawaii

LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

5 of 10

Believe it or not, the Buffalo Bills are 9.5-point favorites in this game.

That should be enough information to confirm how bad the New York Jets are because the Bills aren't set up to be all that great either.

One player the Bills do have, though, is their stud running back LeSean McCoy.

Other than him, the Bills are slated to start Philadelphia Eagles cast-off and wide receiver Jordan Matthews as well as rookie receiver Zay Jones.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is a solid quarterback, but he's far from a stud.

Let's get back to McCoy and his matchup against this Jets defense.

Last season, in Week 2, the Bills hosted the Jets. In that game, McCoy finished as the RB17 in points per reception leagues.

While the Jets may be a laughing stock and about as close to a lock at going 0-16 as any team this season, they still feature a defensive line that consists of guys like Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams.

The Jets defensive line did get weaker, though, when, earlier this month, the team traded Sheldon Richardson to the Seattle Seahawks.

If the Vegas line of being a 9.5-point favorite holds, this game should have a pace that will allow McCoy to prosper.

Without a ton of competition at the skill positions for McCoy, he should see plenty of work, which, for running backs, equates to production.

Comfort Level: A recliner that you'll fall asleep in while watching this game

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

6 of 10

Let's play a game.

Ready?

Name one Cleveland Browns cornerback.

Hey, stop Googling.

Exactly. Who the heck are they?

OK, on a serious note, the Browns will sport guys like Jamar Taylor, Jason McCourty and Briean Boddy-Calhoun at this position in Week 1 following the release of fellow cornerback Joe Haden.

As previously mentioned, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been a bit of a disappointment on the road in the past, which could impact All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown.

With that said, it's not so much Big Ben you should be worried about but rather game flow.

Sure, we're nit-picking, but, hey, I can't just write "The Browns are bad. Haha."

Comfort Level: Pool-side at a resort in the Bahamas

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

7 of 10

Like the Cleveland Browns, the Chicago Bears cornerbacks prompt the question: "Who?"

Outside of cornerback Prince Amukamara, who is more well-known, the Bears are likely to start Marcus Cooper. 

The point is that Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones should eat in this game. 

Being only a seven-point favorite is a little surprising for the Falcons when you look at these two teams from a year ago, but if Vegas is right, Jones should have opportunities to produce throughout.

Considering this matchup in particular, you might usually worry about the Falcons blowing out this team so badly that, come the second half, Jones would be non-existent.

Based on the spread, Jones will need to be a factor throughout against a pair of cornerbacks who are less than stellar.

Comfort Level: Sitting on the couch eating a pizza

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

8 of 10

Out of the 10 players on the list, New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. might have the toughest matchup of them all.

However, for him to have the toughest matchup, he'll need to play Week 1, which is something we're not totally certain about.

According to Tom Rock of Newsday Sports, Beckham did not practice Monday, as he continues to deal with an ankle injury. While we still have some time to go, this is not a good start to the week.

But let's pretend Beckham does play in this one.

If Beckham does suit up, he'll likely line up opposite Dallas Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick, who finished as the 28th best cornerback overall, according to Pro Football Focus.

In 2016, Beckham posted the following stat lines against the Cowboys:

  • Week 1: Eight targets, four receptions, 73 receiving yards (WR46 in PPR leagues)
  • Week 14: Nine targets, four receptions, 94 receiving yards, one touchdown (WR8)

Quite contrasting stat lines.

There is a difference from last year to this year: The Giants added wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the fold, and this could take away looks from Beckham.

You're comfortable starting Beckham—but not as much as most of the other players on this list.

Comfort Level: Stopping at a quality hotel after driving all day on a road trip

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

9 of 10

A lot of the principles that apply to Brady shockingly (but not really) apply to his tight end as well.

Without Edelman, Rob Gronkowski should see more action even with everyone else in the fold.

The biggest question surrounding Gronk in 2017 in general is his health. In 2016 he played in just eight games, but he had over 100 yards receiving in three of them. 

Also in 2016, the Chiefs gave up the sixth-least points per game to tight ends at 6.1. 

But as we all know, Gronk is no "normal" tight end. He'll be one of the favorite—if not the favorite—target of Brady this season, with Edelman out of the fold.

Don't be scared. Gronk will make it all better.

Comfort Level: A really expensive memory foam pillow

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

10 of 10

First we covered Patriots tight end Gronkowski, so now we’ll turn our attention to the tight end on the opposite team and look at Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. 

Examining the matchup against the Patriots is actually kind of tricky.

Although the Patriots gave up the seventh-least fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in 2016, Kelce is arguably the No. 1 target for his quarterback, Alex Smith.

Other than Kelce, the Chiefs do have wide receiver Tyreek Hill, but besides him, there’s just Chris Conley and Albert Wilson at receiver and Kareem Hunt at running back.

Assuming that this game will be close, with the Patriots leading for the majority of it, the Chiefs will need to throw. While the ball may be coming from Smith, Kelce will be on the receiving end of most of the throws. 

The old axiom associated with the Patriots is that they "take away the opposing team's best weapon." This could most likely be Hill, who has more potential than Kelce to make the explosive play.

Going into New England on Week 1 might be a little scary, but Kelce should be fine all in all. 

Comfort Level: A mattress in the spare bedroom at your grandma’s house

Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro-Football-Reference and NFL.com. Betting odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

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