Ranking the Best Upcoming MLB Free-Agent Pitchers
There's one unflinching constant of MLB free agency: Pitchers are paid a premium on the open market despite the frailty of their position. The rising supply of sluggers may only increase the demand for serviceable hurlers, even if every available one comes with glaring warning signs.
Reliable stalwarts have derailed their value with disappointing 2017 campaigns. Even All-Stars Jason Vargas and Greg Holland have turned career years into giant question marks due to catastrophic second halves.
And no pitcher's name will be mentioned more in this list than Tommy John. Three of the top five pitchers available this winter underwent the arm surgery in 2015. That doesn't include Vargas, John Lackey and Jaime Garcia, who have also all gone under the knife during their careers.
Or Michael Pineda, who would have made the cut if not for undergoing the procedure in July. Or Tyler Chatwood, a two-time Tommy John recipient.
Health history mattered when ordering this winter's top free agents, but it was far from a disqualifier considering how many pitchers have had issues. Current, past and predicted future performance also factored into consideration, as well as age and metrics beyond ERA. Wins and saves were a minuscule to nonexistent part of the formula.
Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish headline an otherwise uninspiring crop of free-agent pitchers that could get more interesting if marquee names exercise opt-out clauses and Japanese sensation Shohei Otani makes his way to the United States. The following rankings will only focus on players certain (barring an extension) to hit the open market this offseason.
Honorable Mentions
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The Wild Card: SP/OF Shohei Otani, Japan
According to Fox Sports' Jon Morosi, there's "increasing confidence" that Shohei Otani will come to MLB next season. If so, the two-way star is a major game-changer who could garner even more interest than Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.
After focusing on batting because of a thigh injury, the 23-year-old recently resumed mound activity. The new collective bargaining agreement will cap the mega contract he would receive in a truly open market, and it's unclear whether he will hit, pitch or continue honing both crafts in the U.S.
Either way, he'd be baseball's most fascinating free agent.
Opt-Out Candidates
SP Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
Johnny Cueto can turn down a $21 million annual salary through 2021 and try his luck again. It would have made an intriguing gambit were he in line to make 32 or more starts for the fourth straight season.
Having missed seven weeks with a forearm strain, he lost the opportunity to audition in another pennant race. The 31-year-old righty should be substantially less inclined to void a lucrative contract when he's one month away from his worst ERA since 2008.
SP Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
Despite rebounding with a 2.73 second-half ERA, Masahiro Tanaka still hasn't erased the foul stench of a miserable May in which he surrendered 11 home runs and a .348/.384/.681 opposing slash line. That stretch may force him to stay put.
Yet it's reasonable to believe the Japanese right-hander could still match or exceed his remaining three-year, $67 million salary as a 29-year-old with a career 3.46 ERA. His 9.19 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) in 2017 will ease concerns of this season's 4.54 ERA, especially if he leads the New York Yankees to a fruitful postseason run.
RP Greg Holland, Colorado Rockies
Greg Holland once looked like a strong candidate to forgo a $15 million player option, which upgraded from a $10 million mutual option since he has finished at least 30 games this season. That was before getting ransacked for 14 runs in August, double what he allowed in the previous four months combined.
Barring a convincing September turnaround, he is now better served accepting the $15 million than entering free agency with a 3.81 ERA and diminished velocity concerns.
Starters
Trevor Cahill, Kansas City Royals
Jhoulys Chacin, San Diego Padres
R.A. Dickey, Atlanta Braves
Doug Fister, Boston Red Sox
Miguel Gonzalez, Texas Rangers
Jeremy Hellickson, Baltimore Orioles
John Lackey, Chicago Cubs
Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals
It's remarkable how drastically the market has depreciated this season.
One of the deadline's top targets, Trevor Cahill held a 3.69 ERA when traded to the Kansas City Royals. Now he's in the bullpen. Vargas, who finished June with a 2.22 ERA, has since served up 47 runs in 52 innings.
Lackey would have been a highly desirable option if entering free agency last year. He's undone a riveting comeback with the worst fielding independent pitching (FIP) of any qualified National League starter.
Jeremy Hellickson, who accepted a $17.2 million qualifying offer last offseason, should be grateful if someone offers him $7 million despite his 5.26 ERA. And for all his inconsistencies, Pineda would have cashed in if healthy.
There are few impact arms, but plenty of inning-eating placeholders. Anyone looking to dig even deeper for bounce-back candidates can turn to Chris Tillman, Francisco Liriano, Ubaldo Jimenez or Tyson Ross.
Relievers
David Hernandez, Los Angeles Angels
Seung Hwan Oh, St. Louis Cardinals
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Brandon Kintzler, Washington Nationals
Jake McGee, Colorado Rockies
Mike Minor, Kansas City Royals
Juan Nicasio, Philadelphia Phillies
Fernando Rodney, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Smith, Cleveland Indians
Anthony Swarzak, Milwaukee Brewers
A deep crop of quality relievers contains brand names and unheralded middle relievers. One would think MLB franchises will no longer pay more for a higher saves tally, but Mike Minor, Juan Nicasio, Joe Smith and Anthony Swarzak offer superior production at a potentially cheaper cost.
10. SP Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies
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This is indeed the same Tyler Chatwood who had Tommy John surgery twice and lost his rotation spot this season with a 5.02 ERA in 21 starts. Not the best elevator pitch to snag a multimillion dollar contract.
He also has two significant factors working in his favor. Everyone has already seen the best of the 38-year-old Lackey and 37-year-old CC Sabathia—two top options who nearly received this spot instead—but Chatwood turns 28 in December. A team will purchase his peak years rather than remnants of a former ace.
Then there's optimism of flourishing when half of his outings don't come at Coors Field. As a member of the Colorado Rockies, he has a 3.22 ERA on the road. Per Baseball Reference, his 112 adjusted ERA (ERA+) since joining the Rockies in 2012 depicts an above-average starter.
Stuck in a relief role now, Chatwood expects to join someone's rotation next season.
"I don’t think I’ll be back in the rotation here," he told Mile High Sports' Alissa Noe. "But going into the offseason, I think that I’ll be out there on the free market as a free agent and as a starting pitcher."
Instead of paying for another flawed hurler 10 years his elder, why not gamble on the ground-ball specialist settling down away from Coors?
9. SP Jaime Garcia, New York Yankees
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Two teams traded Jaime Garcia in the same week, so he can't be that great. But two teams traded for Garcia in the same week, so he must be doing something right.
The southpaw won't vie for an All-Star spot or draw any interest in most fantasy leagues. He's simply a solid complementary piece who has swapped some efficiency for durability over the last two years.
A 4.43 ERA isn't special, but it's not awful given MLB's inflated offense. Garcia hasn't garnered many strikeouts, but he has kept balls in the infield with a 54.8 ground-ball percentage. An 11.1 swinging-strike percentage also bodes well for his 6.98 K/9 rising near or above his career 7.22 rate.
For a No. 4 starter, teams can do much worse. Unfortunately, they also can't rely on Garcia to last deep into games. While the 31-year-old has averaged 6.0 innings per start, he hasn't made it through the sixth since joining the Yankees.
That's probably for the best, as he has a 7.85 ERA and .338/.416/.588 slash line the third time through the batting order.
Garcia's job is to pitch 170-180 decent innings. Average stands out in this free-agent class.
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8. RP Addison Reed, Boston Red Sox
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Addison Reed will have played for four teams before getting to choose his home for the first time this winter. Struggles with the Red Sox could cloud his transformation from unreliable closer to shutdown reliever.
Although the Chicago White Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks gave him closer opportunities, he left both organizations with an ERA above 4.00. On the New York Mets, however, he registered a 2.09 ERA and 6.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 142 innings.
Those numbers will elicit heavy interest from teams seeking a late-inning stopper. That is unless he derails his momentum with the Red Sox, for whom he has already given up nine runs and four homers since the July 31 trade.
Long balls are an irksome problem for a high-leverage reliever whose job description often entails preserving a one-run lead. Eleven opponents rounded the bases during his 2014 campaign with the Diamondbacks, so teams that play in smaller parks may think twice about wooing him.
In the right environment, he's a major upgrade. Turning 29 in December, he has an age advantage over older relievers on the market. However, he dropped below Pat Neshek (more to come on him) due to his recent gopheritis.
With a strong finish, Reed can reclaim the class's No. 2 reliever rank and secure a four-year deal.
7. SP Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
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Out of all the starters torpedoing their free-agent value, Marco Estrada most merits a bounce-back gamble.
The Toronto Blue Jays righty entered June with a 3.15 ERA. It now stands at 5.23. After stifling opponents to a .203 average in both 2015 and 2016, he has ceded a .265/.332/.474 slash line.
It's possible the baseball gods finally struck. After all, he accompanied ERAs of 3.13 and 3.48 in the last two seasons with FIPs of 4.40 and 4.15, respectively.
Yet defying the metrics for two full seasons led credence to the belief that he earned those discrepancies with pop-ups and other soft contact. He's still one of the best at inducing infield fly balls and limiting hard contact, so perhaps 2017 signifies the true fluke.
Estrada has still produced an 8.96 K/9 during a tumultuous season, and never having to depend on velocity reduces aging concerns attached to other hurlers reliant on overpowering hitters. If he can rediscover the magic formula from 2015 and 2016, he should have a long shelf life as a productive mid-level starter.
6. RP Pat Neshek, Colorado Rockies
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Pat Neshek last tested free agency after posting a 1.87 ERA in 2014. He is once again rolling at the perfect time.
After wearing out his welcome with the Houston Astros, the sidearmer revitalized his career with the Philadelphia Phillies, who shipped him to the Rockies before the non-waiver trade deadline. The 37-year-old righty now boasts a 1.50 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 60 strikeouts and five walks in 54 superb innings.
Per BSN Denver's Jake Shapiro, Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy explained why Neshek's delivery makes him so tough to hit.
"He’s throwing the ball underhand at you," Lucroy said. "You really have to try to get on top of it as a hitter because the ball is coming up at a different angle and you’re not used to hitting. That’s his advantage, he just throws from a different angle and it’s really deceptive. He’s the only guy that throws that hard from there."
Using FanGraphs' WAR, only four relievers (Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Corey Knebel and Roberto Osuna) have delivered a higher mark than Neshek's 2.1. If he's willing to sign a short-term arrangement, Neshek could collect an eight-figure salary next season.
5. SP Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
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Alex Cobb wasn't supposed to last this long with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Given their limited financial resources, the Rays have consistently replenished their rotation by exchanging established starters for younger talent before free agency takes them away. With top prospect Brent Honeywell waiting in the wings, Cobb looked certain to keep feeding the trend.
That's before Tampa Bay inserted itself into the American League's chaotic wild-card race. Rather than unloading salary in the summer, the club made some low-level purchases—Adeiny Hechavarria, Lucas Duda, Sergio Romo and Steve Cishek—to stay competitive. (It also sold Tim Beckham before he caught fire for the Baltimore Orioles.)
Cobb is already the Rays' longest-tenured pitcher by a comfortable margin, so they're unlikely to sign a starter with a checkered health history who turns 30 in October. Last week, the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin presented the possibility of their changing course and moving the righty through waivers. It's now too late for him to have postseason eligibility for a new team.
Hurting their chances of keeping him at an affordable cost, Cobb has registered a 3.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 163 innings. His 2015 Tommy John surgery still leaves an aura of risk, but pitching-needy contenders can't be overly picky about a hurler with a career 3.49 ERA.
A seven-year pro looking to log the first 30-start season of his career probably shouldn't qualify as a class's top-five option. Then again, nearly all of his competition also comes with health and/or performance-related flaws, so Cobb still stands out as a top alternative to Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.
4. SP Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
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Limit the research to ERA, and Lance Lynn is the top starter on the market.
In terms of plain run prevention, he has improved since returning from Tommy John surgery. His 2.99 ERA beats Jake Arrieta (3.48), Yu Darvish (4.09) and all but six qualified starters. That should earn the 30-year-old a big fat check this winter.
Unfortunately for Lynn, the legwork doesn't stop there. His .229 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) represents the lowest mark of any National League starter, and a 4.72 FIP portrays a mid-level option rather than a top-tier ace.
He also has a career-low 7.39 K/9. And don't forget sitting out all of 2016 because of a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow.
In Lynn's defense, he never tallied an FIP above 3.50 before 2017. He also boasts a career 3.30 ERA and 8.48 K/9. Unlike Cobb, a 6'5", 280-pound frame and durable track record before undergoing Tommy John offers more encouragement of his resurfacing as a 200-inning workhorse.
After accounting for expected regression, Lynn remains a valuable target. But buyers must avoid overpaying because of a misleading ERA and positional scarcity.
3. RP Wade Davis, Chicago Cubs
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For his standards, Wade Davis is actually having a down year.
The Chicago Cubs closer has issued an alarming 25 walks in 47.1 innings, elevating his WHIP to 1.18 and FIP to 3.35. He has relinquished four whole home runs, which is notable considering he served up three in the past three seasons combined.
He has also converted all 28 save opportunities with a 2.28 ERA. So this "lesser" version of Davis will do just fine.
Since permanently moving to the bullpen in 2014, no reliever wields a lower ERA than his 1.41. That doesn't include immaculate 2014 and 2015 postseasons, when he guided the Kansas City Royals to back-to-back World Series appearances with one run allowed and 38 strikeouts over 25 dominant frames.
Playing October and November baseball for the Chicago Cubs will only augment his already seismic value as a shutdown closer. As long as he avoids the meltdown that befell Greg Holland, he'll get handsomely compensated.
Davis won't challenge Aroldis Chapman's record-breaking deal, but Mark Melancon's four-year, $62 million contract offers a better template for what he can expect. Those pacts don't look great for the Yankees or San Francisco Giants, so perhaps tepid suitors will up the annual salary to instead sign the soon-to-be 32-year-old Davis for three years.
2. SP Yu Darvish, Los Angeles Dodgers
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A pair of July implosions—he relinquished seven runs to the Red Sox on July 4 and 10 to the Miami Marlins five days before getting dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers—and Saturday's loss to the San Diego Padres ballooned Yu Darvish's ERA to 4.09. Nevertheless, the 31-year-old can secure a massive payday this fall.
The most important step is staying healthy. Long-term durability is a concern for any starter, let alone one who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. He has done his best to assuage those fears this season.
If Darvish takes all of his scheduled turns through September, he'll complete his first 30-start campaign since 2013. He could also surpass the 200-inning plateau if the Dodgers win a playoff series.
Given the dearth of high-quality pitching, Darvish's career 11.06 K/9—his personal-low 10.05 this season still ranks 11th among qualified starters—will give the Japanese hurler plenty of leverage. But can supplicants trust him to stay on the mound and sustain those skills deep into his 30s?
According to FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman, Darvish is seeking similar compensation to Stephen Strasburg, who received a seven-year, $175 million extension despite his numerous injury woes. The Washington Nationals ace, however, is two years younger with a better career ERA (3.12) and FIP (2.85) than Darvish's 3.45 ERA and 3.34 FIP. He has also yielded 28 fewer walks in 264.1 more innings.
The open market might make up most of the difference. He'll still receive a meaty five- or six-year deal, but longevity concerns cost him the top spot.
1. SP Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
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This is Jake Arrieta's worst season since breaking out for the Cubs. At least he's doing late damage control.
Arrieta's 3.48 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 46.1 ground-ball rate and 3.98 FIP all represent personal nadirs over his four seasons in the Windy City. His stock was in peril when leaving June with a 4.67 ERA, but he has since twirled a 2.01 ERA over 12 starts. The former Orioles castaway hasn't allowed more than three runs in an outing since the All-Star break.
Although his second-half surge won't produce another Cy Young Award like 2015's epic run—especially since he left Monday's outing early with a hamstring injury, per ESPN.com's Jesse Rogers—it preserves his positioning as the offseason's top free-agent pitcher.
As offense catapults, the definition of an ace must loosen. He's no longer a top-10 stud capable of commanding $200 million, but Arrieta is still a top-20 starter who can headline a handful of major league rotations.
He's also more durable than Yu Darvish and most of his peers. Since 2015, only five starters have worked more innings than the late bloomer.
Because of his late ascension, Arrieta will turn 32 before resuming play next season under his new contract. That's a scary proposition for teams considering whether to offer that sixth year, but his mere avoidance of Tommy John surgery makes him the safest front-line starter to target.
All advanced statistics, updated through September 5's games, are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Salary information obtained via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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