2017 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Updated 4-Round Selections and Strategy

Like most NFL drafts, the first one or two picks of a fantasy football draft register as predictable and boring. 

Well, unless an owner sits in a league where the competition hasn't done their homework. 

If that is the case, congratulations on what is a much easier path through a fantasy football season than most have. In reality, there is little reason to steer away from Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson or Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell over the course of the first two picks. 

Let's dive into why below after a look at a four-round mock draft with everything based on a standard 12-team Yahoo league.

Mock Draft

Pick	Player
1.01	David Johnson
1.02	Le'Veon Bell
1.03	LeSean McCoy
1.04	Antonio Brown
1.05	Odell Beckham Jr.
1.06	Julio Jones
1.07	Jay Ajayi
1.08	Melvin Gordon
1.09	Mike Evans
1.10	Jordan Howard
1.11	A.J. Green
1.12	Todd Gurley
2.01	Devonta Freeman
2.02	Jordy Nelson
2.03	DeMarco Murray
2.04	Aaron Rodgers
2.05	Isaiah Crowell
2.06	Rob Gronkowski
2.07	Dez Bryant
2.08	Marshawn Lynch
2.09	Leonard Fournette
2.10	Ezekiel Elliott
2.11	Lamar Miller
2.12	Michael Thomas
3.01	Doug Baldwin
3.02	Christian McCaffrey
3.03	Travis Kelce
3.04	T.Y. Hilton
3.05	Carlos Hyde
3.06	Dalvin Cook
3.07	Demaryius Thomas
3.08	Tyreek Hill
3.09	Keenan Allen
3.10	Alshon Jeffery
3.11	Terrelle Pryor
3.12	Ty Montgomery
4.01	Brandin Cooks
4.02	Doug Martin
4.03	Kelvin Benjamin
4.04	Michael Crabtree
4.05	Allen Robinson
4.06	DeAndre Hopkins
4.07	Larry Fitzgerald
4.08	Matt Ryan
4.09	Drew Brees
4.10	Greg Olsen
4.11	Davante Adams
4.12	Joe Mixon

Over the past few years, fantasy owners have likely been conditioned to avoid the first-round running back.

Wipe any whispers of such a thought from the memory banks.

Football itself continues to evolve, meaning there is a trickle-down effect on the fantasy landscape. League champions have adjusted and those who don't really don't stand a chance.  

Sounds hyperbolic, but two key things have changed about fantasy football in a hurry: running backs are, well, back to being the most valuable commodity and wideouts are easy to stockpile because the league's emphasis on the passing game means everybody has a seat at the targets table.

There is a reason ESPN.com's Matthew Berry wrote the following recently: "Drafting Antonio Brown in the first round last year was fine. He was a first-round stud. But drafting Michael Thomas in the middle-to-late rounds? That's what wins you your league."

Running backs are back to being the most important aspect of fantasy right now thanks to scarcity and the breakouts of key names. Johnson and Bell will both see north of 300 touches thanks to a combination of rushing and receiving skills most don't have. Their skill sets and MVP candidacies are elements that others teams have to split across multiple players in a committee. 

A return of true workhorses happened a year ago as well thanks to rookie breakouts and guys like Jay Ajayi arriving. Dallas Cowboys rookie Ezekiel Elliott led the league in rushing and Chicago Bears rookie Jordan Howard was right behind him. 

Compare this to wideouts. A Brown, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. or other top name is a great pick in the first round. But it creates a problem later for owners who still need to unearth running backs. 

Look at it this way: Almost 50 receiving weapons split between wideouts and tight ends earned 100 targets last year. For wideouts specifically, 25 surpassed 1,000 yards and 15 scored a minimum of eight touchdowns. 

Berry crunched some numbers to show just how close a top name comes to a lesser-known one: 

"If you remove Julio Jones' 300-yard, 48-point game from Week 4 last season, he averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in PPR last season in 13 games (he missed two because of injury). His 211.9 total points he scored outside of the 300-yard game would have ranked just ahead of WR22 Rishard Matthews' 211.5. If, instead of the 300-yard game, you gave Jones the 16.3 FPPG he averaged in the other 13 games, his 228.2 total points would have been just better than WR16 Demaryius Thomas (226.3)."

Obviously drafting a Julio Jones will get owners a massive day or two. But over at Fantasy Football Calculator, Jones has an average draft position of 1.05 (first round, fifth pick). Rishard Matthews sits at 11.07. 

A running back in the first round isn't a hard rule, but it is important that owners go into drafts in 2017 with the understanding that things aren't the way they used to be even two years ago. 

Readers might notice this hasn't touched on quarterbacks or tight ends yet—because some things haven't changed. 

Quarterback is still largely dependent on how an owner drafts. If he or she takes one off the board early, they will be overly reliant on that guy for production. The owner taking Aaron Rodgers in the second round above missed on Dez Bryant and Marshawn Lynch, to name a few. 

The thing is, quarterbacks have less value the more an owner loads up on another spot. Owners don't need to cross their fingers on a big day from their guy under center if the skill positions are filled with star players. And we're playing fantasy in an era where 13 quarterbacks threw north of the 4,000-yard mark, 20 attempted more than 500 passes and 19 threw 20 or more touchdowns. 

Blake Bortles, unlisted on the ADP chart through 15 rounds, fits into every category except one, missing by 95 yards. 

Quarterbacks are easy to project. Tight ends are like playing the lottery. The best two tight ends by miles are Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Eifert.  Both are always hurt. Eifert has missed a silly 11 games over the past two years—not that those who drafted him can complain too much considering he still leads his position with 18 touchdowns over that span. 

Target hogs who happen to play with an owner's quarterback are the way to go late in drafts these days. Owners don't need to get a Jordan Reed at 5.07, but he's there. But so is an underrated name like Dwayne Allen with the New England Patriots at 13.09. 

All the above aside, it is important to stress almost any strategy can work. Add unpredictable rookies, injuries and countless other factors to the mix, and one can see why a baseline understanding going into a draft would put an owner at an advantage. 

All scoring info, points-against info and ownership stats courtesy of Yahoo standard leagues.