PGA Championship 2017 Odds: Vegas Projections for Top Picks in This Year's Field

The 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, has no shortage of interesting storylines. The three most prominent ones involving the game's top golfers are as follows:

Will Jordan Spieth win his second consecutive major and capture the career Grand Slam before turning 25 years old?

Can Rory McIlroy, who struggled most of this season but has turned it around in recent weeks, dominate Quail Hollow as he did in 2010 and 2015?

Will Rickie Fowler, who has finished in the top 15 at 10 majors since 2010, win his first?

We should see four great days of golf as the answers to those questions are revealed. Until then, here's a look at the golfers with 50-1 odds or better to win outright (via Stephen Campbell of OddsShark), alongside picks for the top three finishers in this year's field.

Odds

Rory McIlroy: 7-1

Jordan Spieth: 7-1

Dustin Johnson: 9-1

Jason Day: 16-1

Hideki Matsuyama: 18-1

Jon Rahm: 18-1

Rickie Fowler: 20-1

Henrik Stenson: 22-1

Justin Rose: 25-1

Sergio Garcia: 25-1

Brooks Koepka: 28-1

Justin Thomas: 28-1

Adam Scott: 33-1

Phil Mickelson: 40-1

Tommy Fleetwood: 45-1

Branden Grace: 45-1

Matt Kuchar: 45-1

Thomas Pieters: 50-1

Patrick Reed: 50-1

Third Place: Henrik Stenson: 22-1

This pick is a shot in the dark, especially because Henrik Stenson has done poorly at Quail Hollow, missing the cut in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2016. He made the cut in 2015 but finished tied for 58th.

Peter Morrison/Associated Press

However, there are a couple reasons to believe that the Swede could finally turn it around.

Firstly, Stenson, who struggled in the beginning of the year, is rounding into good form. Following a missed cut at the U.S. Open, he has finished no worse than 26th at four straight events, including 11th at The Open Championship.

Secondly, the 41-year-old checks off a few boxes in terms of his course fit. He's an accurate driver (ninth on the European Tour), ranks 21st in greens in regulation and drives the ball at an above-average distance (296.9 yards) as well.

Good ball strikers are going to do well at Quail Hollow, which is a long and challenging course filled with many traps, most notably water hazards during the Green Mile (the 16th through 18th holes) and a litany of bunkers. Hence, the winner needs to be long and consistently accurate off the tee.

Lastly, he has a great track record with 11 top-10 finishes (and eight top-four results) at majors since 2008.

Of course, this is a risky selection given Stenson's record at Quail Hollow, but the PGA Championship is known for its unpredictability.

Crazier things have happened at this major, such as Y.E. Yang beating Tiger Woods in 2009. It wouldn't be that much of a shock to see Stenson reverse course at Quail Hollow and post a good finish.

2. Rickie Fowler: 20-1

Golf analyst Robert Lutesich perfectly summed up why Fowler has a shot at winning his first major:

Since June 1, Fowler has finished in the top 10 in four of six tournaments, with his highest mark being second place at the Memorial. His good form should help him at a course where he's found success, as he won here in 2012 by shooting a 14-under 274, besting McIlroy and D.A. Points in a playoff.

He's also one of the world's most well-rounded golfers. Simply put, the 28-year-old doesn't have any weaknesses. He's first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting, 14th in strokes gained on approaches, 27th around the green and 49th off the tee. Overall, he's second in total strokes gained.

Quail Hollow should challenge every part of a golfer's game, with long holes, narrow fairways and nasty hazards around the greens.

Fowler is up to the task given his all-around prowess, so expect him to stick around the top of the leaderboard deep into the final round on Sunday.

1. Rory McIlroy: 7-1

On Sunday night, it's possible that golf fans will be talking about how McIlroy dominated Quail Hollow and claimed his third PGA Championship. It's also possible that the Northern Irishman runs away from the field and cruises to victory with little drama.

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

He did so in 2010 (winning by four strokes) and 2015 (seven strokes). As noted before, McIlroy finished tied for the lead after 72 holes at Quail Hollow in 2012 but lost in a playoff.

Otherwise, the 28-year-old has done well even when he's not in the lead after four rounds, finishing tied for fourth (2016), tied for eighth (2014) and tied for 10th (2013).

Given his excellent form of late (a fourth-place finish at the British Open and fifth-place mark at WGC-Bridgestone), he's the clear-cut favorite to win his third title at Quail Hollow.

And if you don't buy the previous evidence, then here's a ringing endorsement from Spieth, per Jason Sobel of ESPN:

McIlroy should have his fifth major title in hand on Sunday, but expect this tournament to be closer than 2010 and 2015 with Fowler staying close.