
Updated Post-Deadline 2017 MLB Postseason Predictions
It's time for another round of way-too-early postseason predictions that are sure to upset almost everyone.
With the trade deadline passed, we now have a good idea of what clubs are going to look like over the final two months and on into October.
While the AL West, NL East and NL West champs are all but decided and the NL wild-card race is not shaping up to be much of a battle, the other three division titles are still up for grabs, and the AL wild-card field features nine teams within 5.5 games.
We've taken a crack at predicting the 10-team playoff field and then hypothetically played things out with those teams all the way to the World Series, including crowning the 2017 champions.
The AL Field
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AL East Winner:ย Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have not won consecutive division titles since the 1915 and 1916 seasons.
Expect that to finally change this year.
They haven't been the same offensive juggernaut we saw a year ago, and they've dealt with their fair share of injuriesโincluding Dustin Pedroia, David Price and Joe Kelly all landing on the disabled list at the end of July.
Still, their starting rotation looks like a safer bet to perform down the stretch than that of the rival New York Yankees. Plus, the potential impact of adding Eduardo Nunez and Rafael Devers to the lineup can't be overlooked.
Expect a full-on battle right down to the season's final days with the Red Sox coming out on top and avoiding having to burn Chris Sale in the Wild Card Game.
AL Central Winner:ย Cleveland Indians
After reaching the World Series last year and then adding slugger Edwin Encarnacion on a team-record deal in free agency, most expected the Indians to run away with the AL Central title.
Instead, they've yet to build aย lead of more than three games in the standings as the Kansas City Royals have rallied from a dismal start to climb squarely back into the playoff picture.
While the Indians didn't make a splash at the trade deadlineโadding reliever Joe Smith to an already stocked bullpen was their only moveโgetting starter Danny Salazar back healthy and pitching at a high level will trump any outside addition they could have made.
In the end, starting pitching is the great equalizer down the stretch, andย Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Salazar looks an awful lot more intimidating than Jason Vargas, Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill.
Sorry, Royals.
AL West Winner:ย Houston Astros
With a 15-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West standings and a 9.5-game lead over the Red Sox for the best record in the American League, this is not exactly what you would call a bold prediction.
Really, what more needs to be said?
Fun fact: The Astros have never won an AL West title. Their last division crown came in 2001 when they still resided in the NL Central.
AL Wild Card No. 1:ย New York Yankees
The addition of Sonny Gray was the headline-grabbing move for the Yankees at the deadline, but bolstering the bullpen with Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson in an effort to shorten games could prove equally important down the stretch.
Still, with an offense that's averaging 5.2 runs per game and one of the league's deepest relief corps, it will all come down to the performance of the starting rotation.
Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and rookie Jordan Montgomery are currently pitching alongside Gray and fellow deadline addition Jaime Garcia. There's plenty of upside with that group, but a fair level of uncertainty as well.
With a 32-20 record at Yankee Stadium and a 25-30 mark on the road, securing the right to host the Wild Card Game will be significant.
AL Wild Card No. 2:ย Seattle Mariners
This is by far the most wide-open spot in this year's playoff field.
The Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays are currently ahead of the Mariners in the standings, while the Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers are all within five games of claiming that No. 2 spot.
We'll go with the hot hand here, though, as the Mariners have posted an AL-best record of 12-8 since the All-Star break.
They may not have made a splash at the deadline, but shoring up the rotation with Erasmo Ramirez and adding David Phelps in a setup role addressed the most glaring areas of need.
The M's are chasing their first postseason berth since 2001, and in his second year at the helm, general manager Jerry Dipoto delivers.
The NL Field
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NL East Winner:ย Washington Nationals
The Nationals are a lock to claim their fourth division title in the past six years.
They've held at least a share of the NL East lead since all the way back on April 16, and with their cushion swelling to 12 games here in early August, no one from baseball's weakest division is going to chase them down.
Will the additions of Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler be enough to stabilize what was one of the worst relief corps in baseball?
None of those guys are on the level of the Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman pickups we saw a year ago, but they still represent a significant upgrade.
NL Central Winner:ย Chicago Cubs
The Milwaukee Brewers' lead in the NL Central peaked at 5.5 games at the All-Star break.
Since then, the Brew Crew has gone 7-12, and the Cubs trail only the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 14-5 record while posting a staggering plus-43 run differential.
An inconsistent starting staff was perhaps the biggest reason for the team's underwhelming play early in the season.ย
Now, it looks like a clear strength once again, as the starters have gone 11-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.98 WHIP since the break.
Their lead over the Brewers currently stands at just 1.5 games, but those two clubs are clearly headed in opposite directions right now.
NL West Winner:ย Los Angeles Dodgers
Simply put, the Dodgers are the best team in baseball right now.
A 22-18 start left them in third place in the NL West standings on May 16.
Since then, they've gone an absurd 54-14 with a plus-137 run differential and simply steamrolled the rest of the NL field.
There's a very good chance the NL West will produce three playoff teams this year, yet the Dodgers currently hold a 14-game lead in the standings. And after landing Yu Darvish, Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani at the deadline, they're not looking back.
NL Wild Card No. 1:ย Arizona Diamondbacks
It's easy to forget that the Diamondbacks lost 93 games a year ago.
Now they're eight games over .500 and comfortably in position to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
The offense is averaging 5.0 runs per game and boasts an imposing middle of the order, with July pickup J.D. Martinez joining Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb.
Meanwhile, the starting rotation ranks second in the majors with a 3.55 ERAโa far cry from its NL-worst 5.19 ERA from a year ago.
As long as Robbie Ray returns strong from taking a liner to the head on July 28 and suffering a concussion, this team should coast into the Wild Card Game.
NL Wild Card No. 2:ย Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have a 5.5-game lead over a slumping Brewers team for the second wild-card spot, with the St. Louis Cardinals (8.5 back), Pittsburgh Pirates (9.5 back) and Miami Marlins (9.5 back) hanging on the periphery.
It's fair to wonder whether starters Kyle Freeland, German Marquez and Jeff Hoffman will eventually hit the rookie wall, but their starting staff has been good enough as a whole, and their bullpen is so vastly improved that even if one of them does start to fade, the club should still be in decent shape.
They still have the juggernaut offense we've seen in years past; they just finally have a good enough stable of arms to back it up.
Not hosting the Wild Card Game would obviously be a disadvantage, but they've held their own away from Coors Field this year with a 29-27 record on the road.
ALDS Predictions
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(1) Houston Astros over (WC1) New York Yankees
- Season Series:ย HOU 5-2
The Astros bumped the Yankees from the playoffs with a Wild Card Game victory in 2015, and they'll look to send them packing once again.
New York fans will no doubt cringe at the prospect of seeing Dallas Keuchel in this series, as the Astros ace has gone 5-2 with a 1.24 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in seven career starts against the Yankees.
That includes six scoreless innings of three-hit ball in that aforementioned Wild Card Game.
With all the ingredients necessary for postseason successโgood starting pitching, a deep bullpen, a stacked lineup and plenty of veteran experienceโwe'll say Astros in four.
(3) Boston Red Sox over (2) Cleveland Indians
- Season Series:ย BOS 2-0
The two teams many expected to be playing for the AL pennant when the season began instead meet up here in the ALDS.ย
The Indians probably have the deeper starting rotation, and we all saw what Corey Kluber did in the role of ace last October, but the Red Sox still have as dangerous a lineup as any team in baseball and their own stable of starters capable of twirling a gem every time they take the ball.
Who wouldn't want to see a Game 5 in this one, with Chris Sale taking the ball against Klubot for the right to advance to the ALCS?
That's exactly how things unfold, and in his first career playoff series, Sale bounces back from a rocky Game 1 start with eight scoreless innings in the clincher.
NLDS Predictions
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(1) Los Angeles Dodgers over (WC1) Arizona Diamondbacks
- Season Series:ย LAD 6-4
After burning Zack Greinke in the Wild Card Game, the Diamondbacks enter this series at a distinct disadvantage.
Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish hold the experience edge over the young duo of Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker, and they deliver as expected, giving the Dodgers an early 2-0 lead in the series.
Greinke pitches well enough to win in Game 3, but Rich Hill matches him pitch for pitch, and the Dodgers get to Fernando Rodney late to finish off a relatively painless sweep.
(3) Chicago Cubs over (2) Washington Nationals
- Season Series:ย TIE 2-2
It's the Daniel Murphy vs. Cubs rematch we've all been waiting for.
In all seriousness, if both teams have their starting rotations at full strength for this series, it'll be as evenly matched as it gets on the mound.
Max Scherzer vs. Jon Lester in Game 1, Stephen Strasburg vs. Jake Arrieta in Game 2, Gio Gonzalez vs. Jose Quintana in Game 3 and Tanner Roark vs. Kyle Hendricks in Game 4.
Scherzer bests Lester in the opener, both teams suffer bullpen meltdowns in the middle of the series, and the Cubs pound Roark in Game 4 to force a win-or-go-home rematch of the Game 1 starters.
This time around, Lester shows why he's one of the best postseason pitchers of his era. He puts the team on his back, and the Cubs move on to the NLCS.
LCS Predictions
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ALCS: (1) Houston Astros over (3) Boston Red Sox
- Season Series:ย BOS 2-1
With the Astros wrapping up their division series victory in four games and the Red Sox forced to burn Chris Sale in Game 5, the Astros open this series with an edge.
Dallas Keuchel keeps things rolling with another terrific start in Game 1, and Lance McCullers introduces himself to the national audience with an equally impressive turn in Game 2.
However, the Red Sox battle back with consecutive wins at Fenway Park, with Sale dominant once more in his Game 3 start.ย Mookie Betts carves his place in Boston postseason lore with a walk-off home run in Game 4 off closer Ken Giles to even the series.
But a Carlos Beltran three-run homer in the seventh inning proves to be the difference in Game 5, and the Astros close things out back at Minute Maid Park in Game 6 to win their first AL pennant.
Beltran takes home ALCS MVP honors with a .415 average and three homers in the series.
NLCS: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers over (3) Chicago Cubs
- Season Series:ย LAD 4-2
The Cubs bested the Dodgers in six games in the NLCS a year ago, but this clearly is not the same Dodgers team.
After sweeping the Diamondbacks in the division series, the Dodgers are able to set up their starting rotation. That means Clayton Kershaw for Games 1, 4 and 7, if necessary.
Kershaw had one great start (G2: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER) and one rocky start (G6: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER) in last year's matchup, and he comes out firing in Game 1 with a four-hit shutout.
The Cubs answer back in Game 2 as Jake Arrieta outduels Yu Darvish in a preview of the free-agent market's top upcoming arms, and the series momentum swings as the Cubs chase Rich Hill early in Game 3 with a blowout win.
The Dodgers don't let things slip away this time, though.
They take the next two at Wrigley Field behind an offensive explosion led by young stars Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, and Darvish pitches the game of his life in Game 6 back at Dodger Stadium to clinch the pennant.
NLCS MVP goes to Kershaw, but he shares it with Darvish in a moment reminiscent of the Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling World Series in Arizona, and the recruitment to re-sign him is now in full swing.
World Series Prediction
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(1) Los Angeles Dodgers over (1) Houston Astros
It's admittedly rare that the league's two best teams actually meet in the World Series, which is a testament to what a crapshoot the MLB postseason can be.
However, these two clubs have been head and shoulders above everyone else for more or less the entire season, so it still feels like the right prediction to make.
Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel both get knocked around in a Game 1 as the grind of the postseason starts to catch up with them, but the Astros come out on top in a wild 11-8 win.
The teams split the next two games as Lance McCullers continues his breakout October with a terrific Game 2 start and Yu Darvish continues adding zeroes to his offseason asking price with a strong outing of his own in Game 3.
Game 4 turns into a bullpen game for the Dodgers, but Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson combine for three scoreless innings to bridge the gap to Pedro Baez and Kenley Jansen, and the offense battles back for the win.
Things get back to normal for the two aces in a Game 5 pitcher's duel, and a Chris Taylor solo home run stands up in a 1-0 victory for the Dodgers.
Rich Hill takes the ball in Game 6, and the Dodgers offense finally figures out McCullers. He's chased after just four innings with the Astros trailing 5-1.
A three-run homer from Carlos Correa in the sixth trims that deficit and chases Hill, but the Dodgers bullpen steps up once again, and Jansen gets the final seven outs to secure the title.
Jansen takes home World Series MVP honors with 5.1 scoreless innings and three saves in the series.
So there you have it, Dodgers over Astros in six games.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted.

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