Predicting Boom or Bust on Top MLB Trade Splashes Thus Far

With a week remaining before the July 31 MLB non-waiver trade deadline, anything can happen.

That's not literally true—the Los Angeles Angels aren't about to send Mike Trout to the New York Yankees for cash considerations and the ghost of Mickey Mantle.

There are head-spinning deals to come, however. Bank on it.

While we wait, let's gaze back at five trade splashes that have already happened and assess whether they'll be booms or busts.

A couple criteria to keep in mind:

• We're judging these swaps through the prism of the buying team rather than the seller. So while the price paid in prospects and MLB chips plays a factor, the most important consideration is whether the contender will get a boost.

• That said, we will award bonus points for deals that help the buyer now and into the future. There's nothing inherently wrong with a rental, but a player locked into an affordable, longer-term contract adds cache. 

Mariners Acquire RHP David Phelps from Marlins

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Admittedly, this strains the definition of a trade splash. But it signaled a clear intent by the Seattle Mariners to contend rather than sell.

In Phelps, the M's got a 30-year-old reliever who posted a 3.45 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 47 frames for the Miami Marlins. In 1.1 innings with Seattle, Phelps has surrendered no runs or walks and fanned a pair.

Seattle sent a package of four prospects back to the Marlins, including outfielder Brayan Hernandez and right-hander Brandon Miller, Pablo Lopez and Lukas Schiraldi.

Hernandez is the main prize, and now ranks as the Marlins' No. 5 prospect, per MLB.com. 

This isn't a difference-maker for the Mariners, whose 49-51 record puts them 17 games out in the American League West.

At the same time, they're on the edge of the wild-card chase, and Phelps' strikeout stuff should translate nicely at Safeco Field.

Prediction: Boom

Yankees Acquire 3B Todd Frazier and RHP David Robertson from White Sox

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

The Yankees were looking for upgrades in the bullpen and at first base and took the two-birds-with-one-stone approach in a trade with the Chicago White Sox.

It cost them outfielder Blake Rutherford (now the No. 6 prospect in the Sox's loaded system), left-hander Ian Clarkin (No. 18 in Chicago's system) and MLB right-hander Tyler Clippard.

In exchange, the Yanks netted bullpen righties David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle and infielder/designated hitter Todd Frazier.

Robertson brings a closer's pedigree to a 'pen that has wobbled at times, and while he coughed up a home run on Saturday, he's fanned five in three innings with New York. Kahnle, meanwhile, has struck out six through three shutout frames since moving from the South Side to the Bronx. 

Frazier, on the other hand, may not be the offensive boost New York was hoping for.

In 81 games with the White Sox, the 31-year-old hit just .207 with a .761 OPS. His 16 home runs leap off the stat sheet, but so does his ugly .288 July slugging percentage.

Prediction: Boom on Robertson and Kahnle, bust on Frazier

Diamondbacks Acquire LF J.D. Martinez from the Tigers

John Minchillo/Associated Press

A hit-by-pitch on his left hand has limited J.D. Martinez to just two at-bats with the Arizona Diamondbacks, though he could start Monday, per Richard Morin of AZCentral.com.

Assuming he returns healthy, Martinez should be a fine addition for the Snakes, who snagged him for MiLB third baseman Dawel Lugo and shortstops Sergio Alcantara and Jose King, which ESPN.com's Keith Law rightly dubbed a "light return."

In 57 games with the Detroit Tigers, Martinez hit .305 with a 1.018 OPS and 16 home runs. The 29-year-old should slot nicely alongside Jake Lamb and MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt to form a fearsome middle of the order.

What's more, his .474 average against left-handed pitching will be a godsend to a club that has the second-worst mark in baseball versus southpaws. 

It's contingent on health and Martinez adjusting to a new league, but it says here he'll keep raking in the final months of his contract year.

Prediction: Boom

Nationals Acquire LHP Sean Doolittle and RHP Ryan Madson from Athletics

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Washington Nationals are coasting toward a National League East crown, but they need relief reinforcements.

They got some in the form of left-hander Sean Doolittle and righty Ryan Madson, acquired from the Oakland Athletics for right-hander Blake Treinen, left-hander Jesus Luzardo and infielder Sheldon Neuse. 

Madson has tossed three shutout innings for Washington, while Doolittle is 2-for-2 in save opportunities. It's possible the Nats aren't finished bolstering the bullpen, but this was an excellent start.

"It kind of sets your mind at ease," left fielder Jayson Werth said of his new teammates, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com. "You've got some guys that have been there, been in the fire, been battle-tested. You can lean on those guys. And it takes the pressure off everyone else, too." 

Prediction: Boom

Cubs Acquire LHP Jose Quintana from White Sox

Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

The Chicago Cubs have spent the bulk of the 2017 season looking up at the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. 

Yes, they caught the Brew Crew on Sunday and now sit in a virtual tie for first place at 51-46. Still, this isn't where the defending MLB champions expected to be come late July.

One of the biggest culprits behind the Cubbies' showing has been the starting rotation, which owns a ho-hum 4.42 ERA. Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey, key cogs in last season's starting corps, all own ERAs north of 4.00.

Hence Chicago's decision to trade its top two prospects—stud outfielder Eloy Jimenez and hard-throwing Dylan Cease—to the White Sox in exchange for lefty Jose Quintana. 

An All-Star and top-10 Cy Young Award finisher in 2016, Quintana has eclipsed 200 innings in each of the last four seasons and is inked to an affordable contract with a couple of club options that extend through 2020.

In his debut with the Cubs, the 28-year-old twirled seven shutout innings with 12 strikeouts. On Sunday, he followed that up with six innings of three-run, seven-strikeout ball in a win against the St. Louis Cardinals.

It's just one indicator, but it will surely help Quintana to go from the 26th-ranked defense in the Sox to the 10th-ranked defense in the Cubs (and that's probably an underestimation of their ability), per FanGraphs.

Prediction: Boom 

All statistics current as of Sunday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.