Predicting Progression, Regression for New York Giants' Top Players

New York Giants head coach Ben McAdoo's message to his team this year is simple. He wants his players to make small strides—one percent—every day toward getting better so that by the season's end, they're all playing their best ball as they eye a potential postseason run straight through to the Super Bowl. 

But for every step forward, sometimes there's a step back a player must take. Whether that's due to a change in his role, an unusually high statistical season, or the addition of new personnel, it's not uncommon for even the top stars on a team to sometimes see dips in their statistics while others see a rise.

Let's have a look at some of the Giants' stars who stand to either progress or regress in the coming year.

LT Ereck Flowers: Progression

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Let's be realistic when talking about third-year left tackle Ereck Flowers: There is nowhere for him to go but up. Flowers, after all, has led the team in penalties and quarterback pressures in each of the last two seasons.

The good news is that Flowers finally realized that the last two years weren't good enough, nor was his offseason preparation.

He spent this winter in East Rutherford, New Jersey, working to reshape his body and improve his stamina. He engaged in boxing, an activity that was fully endorsed by teammates and coaches alike.

And he tossed himself head first into gaining a better understanding of the playbook, understanding not just his role, but the roles of those around him so that he can work outside of the box as necessary.

Whether all that translates into production remains to be seen—we won't know until the pads go on. But at the minimum, Flowers appears to have done enough to make tiny gains toward improvement in 2017.

WR Odell Beckham Jr.: Regression

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is having the type of career that most people can only dream of having.

Among the many accomplishments the former LSU star has racked up, he has become the fastest player to reach 3,500 receiving yards, doing so in just 26 games, according to NFL Research. He also became the fastest player in NFL history to reach 200 career receptions last year.

Despite all his records, Beckham has his eye on having his best season ever this year. He's been off in California training like there's no tomorrow.

So why do I think he's going to regress? Well, in Beckham's case, it's a bit of a double-edged sword. In his first three seasons, he was pretty much the face of the receiving game, with everyone else around him more or less a minor role player.

This year, however, the Giants added receiver Brandon Marshall and tight end Evan Engram to the mix, two guys who are sure to cut into the pass targets that otherwise might have been thrown Beckham's way.

So when we talk about regression for Beckham, we're talking about his pass targets, which last year amounted to a career-high 172 pass attempts with him catching 105 of those (also a career high). We're talking about a slight dip in pass targets alone.

As for the other stats that come with targets—yards and touchdowns—Beckham has the kind of talent where he can make the most out of his opportunities. He should, if he plays all 16 games, easily top 1,000 receiving yards once again, and he should probably have no trouble recording double-digit touchdown receptions for the fourth year in a row.

RB Paul Perkins: Progression

Kiichiro Sato/Associated Press

If there was ever an opportunity for second-year running back Paul Perkins to take a step forward, this season would be it.

Named the team's starting running back by head coach Ben McAdoo back in March, Perkins told reporters this spring that he's much more comfortable with the playbook and that he has a better feel for the speed of the pro game.

Toss in the confidence shown by his head coach, who uncharacteristically awarded a starting job without even holding a competition, and there's every reason to think that Perkins, who last year saw his touches increase starting in Week 14 and who never averaged less than 3.0 yards per carry in those opportunities, will continue to see his stock rise.

DE Jason Pierre-Paul: Regression

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Before anyone asks, my prediction for defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul's regression has nothing to do with him just getting his big pay day in the offseason.

My concern with Pierre-Paul is his inability to make it through a 16-game season. It's probably no shock when I say that Pierre-Paul's two highest sack totals came in years when he made it through a full year—those being 2011 (16.5 sacks) and 2014 (12.5 sacks).

In fact, Pierre-Paul has played in only one 16-game season since 2012, that coming in 2014. And in the last two years, Pierre-Paul played in 20 games, recording 8.0 sacks.

Although he is a hard-charging type of worker whose training and preparation is meticulous, it's probably safe to wonder about his durability, especially as he gets older.

Pierre-Paul will always give you a full effort, but if you're looking for him to get back to recording double-digit sacks as he did in the aforementioned two seasons, his biggest obstacle just might be the beating he takes from a game that has allowed him to provide for his family.

DE Olivier Vernon: Progression

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

In his first season as a Giant, defensive end Olivier Vernon, fresh off signing a five-year, $85 million contract, showed people without a doubt why he was worthy of the rich payday the Giants gave him.

Per Pro Football Focus, Vernon has recorded the most pressures from his right defensive end spot since 2015, racking up 142, with Minnesota’s Everson Griffin (139) and Arizona’s Chandler Jones (112) following.

However, when people assess Vernon’s productivity, they’ll usually focus on one specific stat: sacks, of which Vernon logged 8.5, the 21st most in the NFL last year.

While it would be very easy for Vernon to rest on his laurels, that’s not quite in his DNA. According to an Instagram post by Vernon’s agent, the 26-year-old defensive end spent part of his offseason engaging in Krav Magna training, a type of self-defense training which, in part, teaches one how to fight off an adversary’s hands.

Vernon will likely be the first to admit he can improve in all areas of his game, including potentially turning some of his pass rush pressures into sacks for lost yardage.

Given his youth and commitment to raising the bar on the product he puts out there on the field, along with his entering the second year of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s system, all signs seem to point to progression in Vernon’s immediate future.

PR Dwayne Harris: Regression

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If nothing else, return specialist Dwayne Harris is one tough cookie.

The special teams staple, who in 2015 signed a five-year, $17 million contract, played through assorted injuries last season—injuries that hit him from the top to the bottom.

Unfortunately, between the injuries and some questionable decisions on punt returns—perhaps he thought he could beat the defenders only to have his body betray him—Harris was a disappointment as a returner last year.

Despite not missing much time, he averaged 5.9 yards per punt return, a steep drop from the 10.0 average he posted in his first season as a Giant, and didn't look anywhere near explosive as he had the year before.

This year, Harris has 500,000 reasons to show progress—that's dollars by the way. That's how much of a pay cut Harris reportedly took to avoid being a salary cap casualty, and how much money he can earn if he bounces back to his 2015 form, averaging 10.0 yards per return.

With all that said, Harris is hard-wired to play. Even before last year, when injuries began affecting him, there was a moment the year before when he was carted off the field only to return to a game.

When you add to the equation that Harris is going to have some competition for his roster spot—undrafted rookie Travis Rudolph could make a push for Harris' roster spot—it just might be asking a lot of him to get back to where he was, statistically speaking, in his first season as a Giant.

Patricia Traina covers the New York Giants for Inside Football, the Journal Inquirer and Sports Xchange. All quotes and information were obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced.