New England Patriots: Over/Under Predictions for 2017 Season

For the New England Patriots, nothing really matters this season other than a shot at another Lombardi Trophy.

The team cares about wins and losses but only as a path to the Super Bowl. Head coach Bill Belichick wants his players to perform well, but he couldn't care less about individual statistics.

New England is a team that operates like a machine, and it's looking to grind its way to another championship by any means possible.

As fans, though, we are interested in things like regular-season records, team totals and individual statistics. That's why we're here to set the over/under on some key categories for the 2017 season.

The Patriots might not care if they win more than 12 games this year—our friends at OddsShark.com have the over/under set at 12.5—but fans do.

Let's dive into some key categories, set some limits and determine whether they will be reached in 2017.

Team Over/Under 12.5 Wins: Over

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If you were to ask Belichick how many wins the Patriots want this season, he would probably reply with something to the tune of "we don't care about the number of wins we have, so long as we win the final game of the 2017 season."

Fans and betting enthusiasts do care about the number of wins, though. As we mentioned in the opening, OddsShark has the over/under at 12.5—and we're going to use that number here.

This is a tricky one. Will the Patriots win 12 games? That seems reasonable since the team has won at least 12 in each of the past seven seasons. That half a game makes things tricky, though. Four of the past seven seasons have resulted in exactly 12 wins, and this year does bring a tough schedule.

In terms of 2016 winning percentage, the Patriots face the league's 12th-toughest schedule at .527. They also have a brutal stretch to close the season with five division games crowded around a matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here's the thing, though. New England's strength of schedule last season was .523 ninth-hardest in the NFL. The Patriots still won 14 games last season en route to their Super Bowl victory.

On paper, the team is even better this year and it's difficult to see it losing more than three games, so we'll take the over.

Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead Over/Under 1,100 Yards Rushing: Over

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Since the Patriots appear likely to head into 2017 with a committee running the football, we're going to avoid high expectations for any one back.

Instead, we'll set an over/under for new additions Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead, our picks to lead the rushing attack in 2017.

Dion Lewis and James White will still play a role in the backfield, but we believe the bigger backs in Burkhead and Gillsilee will handle most of the rushing duties.

For an over/under, we're going with 1,100 yards rushing. This is roughly what LeGarrette Blount (1,161 yards) produced last season. If the combination of Gillislee and Burkhead can be as productive as Blount was last season, then the Patriots' rushing attack should be in good shape.

We're going to pick the over here, too, primarily because both Gillislee and Burkhead are efficient and productive runners.

Football Outsiders rated Gillislee and Burkhead first and second, respectively, in rushing efficiency on a per-play basis last season. They saw 175 carries between them in 2016 and combined for 921 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. If we take their combined per-play averages and multiply them by the 299 carries Blount saw in New England last season, we'd get roughly 1,573 yards and 17 touchdowns.

We're not sure Gillislee and Burkhead will actually get 300 carries between them, but if both stay healthy, surpassing 1,100 yards rushing should be an obtainable goal.

Brandin Cooks Over/Under 1,200 Yards Receiving: Under

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One of the biggest offseason additions for New England this year was wideout Brandin Cooks.

He should immediately become one of the top two wideouts, along with Julian Edelman. However, he does expect to be more than just the deep threat he often was with the New Orleans Saints.

"Coming to New England, it seems like it's an offense that guys do a bunch of different things and I'm looking forward to being able to do some things that I didn't necessarily have to do in New Orleans," Cooks said, per Jim McBride of the Boston Globe.

We're going to set the over/under at 1,200 yards receiving for Cooks. This is because the mark would represent a career-best for him, though just barely. He produced 1,173 yards last season.

Do we think Cooks can set a new career high this year? In short, no. While he can be a big part of the offense, Tom Brady has too many weapons to choose from for the 23-year-old to get such a large workload. He'll be sharing receptions with the likes of Edelman, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell, Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen.

That's not even considering running backs, who Brady loves to throw to. White, for example, caught 60 passes last season.

Edelman led the team with 1,106 yards receiving last year, and that was without a healthy Gronkowski on the field for much of the season. We'll predict right around 1,100 yards for Cooks this year.

Rob Gronkowski Over/Under 11.5 Games Played: Over

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Gronkowski wasn't healthy all of last season. Injuries have been an issue for him throughout his NFL career. So there are legitimate reasons to wonder just how many games he will be able to suit up for this season.

We're setting the over/under here at 11.5 games. Over the past five years, he's only averaged 11.2 games per season.

Our guess is Gronkowski might miss a game or two at some point in the season. However, we also believe he will play at least 12 games. One reason for this is that the 28-year-old has been resting and recovering ever since undergoing back surgery in early December.

Gronkowski stressed last month that he's back to "100 percent" and is ready to prepare for the season.

"It's always important to me, whenever I get a little setback like that, to get back to where I need to be," Gronkowski explained, per Mike Reiss of ESPN. "I feel like I am—doing everything out here, competing. It's fun."

Gronkowski may have an easier time staying healthy because the Patriots have so many weapons on offense this year. He shouldn't see quite the workload he has in the past, and New England will have no reason to keep on the field in games that are already in hand.

Tom Brady Over/Under 40 Touchdown Passes: Under

Associated Press

With Cooks on the roster and a healthy Gronkowski in the fold, Brady should be in store for a terrific season. Can he pass for more than 40 touchdowns, though? We wouldn't bet against it.

We're picking an over/under of 40 touchdown passes because this was the number Aaron Rodgers led the NFL with last season. Passing for more than 40 touchdowns should ensure Brady is at, or near, the top of the league in terms of passing scores.

This is certainly a high number for Brady to reach. He's only passed for more than 40 touchdowns in a season once during his career. That was back in 2007, when Randy Moss was his leading wideout. One could argue that the Patriots quarterback has even more weapons this season, though, and he will have plenty of opportunities to throw into the end zone.

Let's consider this. Brady tossed 28 touchdown passes in 12 games last season. Over a 16-game season, that's already 37 touchdown passes. With a better receiving corps, four extra touchdowns should be doable for the man known as Tommy Touchdown.

Here's another thing to consider: While the duo of Gillislee and Burkhead may lead to a better overall rushing attack for the Patriots, neither is the short-yardage plow that Blount was. Blount rushed for 18 touchdowns last season, and with him gone, Brady should see a few more opportunities to throw with goal-to-go.

Offensive Line Over/Under 25 Sacks Allowed: Under

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For Brady to get past 40 touchdown passes, he'll have to stay healthy all season. For him to stay healthy, he'll have to avoid taking beatings at the hands of opposing defenses. Fortunately, he should be primed to do so this season.

New England boasts an offensive line that was rated 11th in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus last season. All five starters—Nate Solder, Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, David Andrews and Marcus Cannon—return for the 2017 campaign. Since the Patriots only allowed 24 sacks last season, we'll set the over/under at 25.

This is a lofty goal. Aside from New England, only four other teams allowed fewer than 25 sacks in 2016. We think the Patriots can hit the under, though, for a couple of reasons.

For starters, the previously mentioned offensive line is intact. In addition, Brady just isn't a quarterback that takes many sacks—he's a lot more likely to toss the ball into the dirt. Of the 24 sacks allowed by the Patriots during the regular season, only 15 were on the 39-year-old himself.

As is the case with interceptions, we probably won't be seeing a lot of sacks taken by Brady this season.

Defense Over/Under 34 Sacks: Over

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The Patriots possessed the best defense in the entire league last season, allowing just 15.6 points per game.

However, the defense wasn't the best at getting to the opposing quarterback. As a team, New England produced just 34 sacks (16th in the NFL) and was 24th in pass-rushing by Pro Football Focus last season.

Can New England produce more than 34 sacks in 2017? With the new additions on the defensive front, we believe so.

The Patriots parted ways with Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long in the offseason, and they replaced them with free agent Lawrence Guy and trade acquisition Kony Ealy. The team also drafted defensive end Deatrich Wise and edge-rusher Derek Rivers.

The Patriots' defense should now be younger and more versatile at the edges. Trey Flowers returns after what was essentially his rookie year—he appeared in just one game in 2015—and could be in store for a notable jump in sack production.

In addition, the Patriots added Pro Bowl cornerback Stephon Gilmore this offseason to play opposite Malcolm Butler. If Gilmore can match the play of Butler, opposing quarterbacks are going to have a difficult time getting rid of the ball quickly.

More time holding the ball usually leads to more sacks. New England should be able to top last year's team sack total.

Stephon Gilmore Over/Under 5.5 Interceptions: Under

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One of the reasons why the Patriots brought in Gilmore is his ability to come away with the football. He racked up five interceptions last season and has 11 picks over the past three years. His five in 2016 were only eight fewer than the Patriots produced as a team.

Can Gilmore get to six interceptions in 2017? There is one reason to believe he could. Having Butler on the field means opposing teams may target the former Bills man more often than teams did in Buffalo last season. Remember, he's the No. 2 cornerback now.

The problem is that getting to six interceptions is hard, even for a guy like Gilmore. In fact, only four players accomplished the feat last season.

The reality is that if Gilmore does start making frequent plays early in the season, opposing quarterbacks are likely to avoid him just as much as they avoid Butler. We could see a lot more teams trying to throw to running backs, third and fourth receivers and tight ends in an effort to bypass New England's cornerback duo altogether.

Don't be surprised if Gilmore snags four or five picks this season, but getting that sixth just isn't likely to happen.