Five 2016 NFL Playoff Teams in Danger of Missing Out in 2017

Playoff turnover is a fact of life in the NFL. At least a third of the teams that made the postseason in 2016 won't repeat the feat this winter. 

Since the league went to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, four or more participants made the playoffs after missing them the year before, per NFL vice president of communications Michael Signora. 

Four is a conservative number, since the minimum amount of turnover occurred only three times in 27 years. At least six or more new teams happened on 13 occasions. On average, six teams didn't return to the postseason after doing so the previous campaign. 

This means several of last year's contenders won't play into January. But which ones are the most likely to falter? 

Last year's playoffs featured heavy hitters such as the New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers. Something always happens, though. Injuries, Super Bowl hangovers or just poor play feed into this cycle of change. 

Five candidates are in the greatest danger of missing the postseason after getting there in 2016.

Detroit Lions

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The Detroit Lions didn't excel last season. They survived. 

Detroit set an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comeback victories in 2016, per the Elias Sports Bureau (via ESPN Stats & Info). That'll prove extremely difficult to repeat. 

The Lions lost their final four contests last season, including a 26-6 loss to the Seattle Seahawks during Wild Card Weekend. In those defeats, opponents outscored Detroit by 59 points. There's nothing quite like backing into the playoffs. 

While team supporters point toward Matthew Stafford's continued improvement under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter and the additions of guard T.J. Lang, right tackle Rick Wagner and first-round linebacker Jarrad Davis, multiple issues are still present. 

Starting along the offensive line, Lang and Wagner are upgrades, but they filled holes the team created after not re-signing Larry Warford and Riley Reiff. Furthermore, the offense has a major question to answer at left tackle after last year's first-round pick, Taylor Decker, suffered a torn shoulder labrum in minicamp. He's expected to miss four to six months, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. 

Since the offensive front remains in flux, it's hard to imagine the team will dramatically improve upon last year's 30th-ranked rushing attack, especially since the running back stable received no major upgrades. A healthy Ameer Abdullah will help, but he's coming off a foot injury that cost him all but two games a year ago. 

Defensively, Detroit tied for 30th overall with only 26 sacks. Unless Ezekiel Ansah returns to form or the addition of Cornelius Washington creates a bigger-than-expected impact, the Lions' defensive front can't create consistent pressure. 

After making the playoffs in two of Jim Caldwell's three seasons as head coach, the Lions will experience regression due to last year's razor-thin margin of victory and continued issues throughout the roster.

Houston Texans

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In the NFL, everything revolves around the quarterback. The Houston Texans serve as the primary example. 

The Texans feature 2016's No. 1-ranked defense, and their offense is talented. DeAndre Hopkins eclipsed 1,200 receiving yards twice in four seasons. Running back Lamar Miller ran for 1,073 yards last year—his first in Houston. 

However, the quarterback position continues to be an albatross. 

Last year's attempt to address the problem ended in disaster. Brock Osweiler played one season in Houston, butted heads with head coach Bill O'Brien and finished among the five worst quarterbacks in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, passing yards per game, interceptions and quarterback rating. 

Fortunately for Houston, the Cleveland Browns took the remaining three years and $51 million on his contract (all the guaranteed money will be off the books by the end of 2017). 

Houston then traded up in the first round to acquire Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. Prior to 2016, Watson was considered the top quarterback prospect. He fell to third on draft day, yet he still has franchise signal-caller potential.

Even so, the Texans are leaning toward starting former fourth-round pick Tom Savage. 

"I like his leadership," Hopkins said during minicamp, per ESPN.com's Sarah Barshop. "... He has earned it, not just from playing, but from the chemistry he has built in the locker room with everybody."

Whether it's Savage or Watson starting Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team could take a step back if the veteran doesn't produce or the rookie takes time to acclimate to the professional game. 

They'll need to remain upright, too. However, the Texans don't have an answer at right tackle. Derek Newton is on the physically unable to perform list due to last year's knee injuries, and Nick Martin, the projected starting center, has yet to take a snap in an NFL game. Meanwhile, veteran left tackle Duane Brown missed mandatory minicamp over what's believed to be a contract dispute, per the Houston Chronicle's John McClain. 

Defense wins championships, and the Texans have a championship-caliber defense. But the organization lacks punch from the other side of the ball. With the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts lurking, the Texans have a good chance to fall out of the AFC South's top spot. 

Kansas City Chiefs

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The Kansas City Chiefs are the team on this list most likely to compete for a division title.

Since taking over as head coach, Andy Reid is 43-21 with three playoff appearances in four seasons. The team finished 9-7 during the one year it missed the postseason. Reid knows how to coach, and he developed a successful formula. 

The Chiefs don't play a sexy brand of football.

Reid relies on ball-control passing, which often substitutes for the running game. If the term "game manager" appeared in the dictionary, quarterback Alex Smith's picture would come with it. None of the team's receivers or runners finished among the top 20 last season in big plays (runs or receptions over 20 yards).

On defense, coordinator Bob Sutton is an aggressive play-caller and relies heavily on pressure packages to create turnovers. The Chiefs led the NFL with 33 turnovers last season. 

However, opponents could move the ball on Sutton's unit. Last season, the Chiefs ranked 24th overall in total defense at 368.5 yards per game, and turnovers helped tilt the field in Kansas City's favor numerous times.

This bend-but-don't-break approach has worked during the last two seasons, but what happens if a ball doesn't bounce in the Chiefs' favor or the defense doesn't provide as many turnovers? It's unrealistic to expect this group to continue turning the ball over in key situations. 

The most difficult obstacle for the Chiefs might be overcoming their division rivals. The AFC West is arguably the NFL's most competitive division. 

The Oakland Raiders also made the playoffs last season, but they're expected to be even better this year with Derek Carr healthy, the game's best offensive line, an improving defense and the addition of running back Marshawn Lynch. The Denver Broncos have issues at quarterback yet field one of the league's best defenses. Finally, the Los Angeles Chargers are improved and still have Philip Rivers at quarterback. 

One of these teams will make the playoffs, but they could beat up on each other, allowing only one to get in.

Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins opened last season 1-4 before establishing their identity as a run-first, rough-and-tumble offense built around running back Jay Ajayi. 

The offensive line jelled and consistently won at the point of attack, which created more space in the passing game for quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the team's receivers. 

When head coach Adam Gase asked Tannehill to sit in the pocket, he wasn't nearly as effective. According to Pro Football Focus, the former first-round pick produced a 109.1 quarterback rating in the quick passing game. When holding the ball longer than 2.6 seconds, his rating dropped 37.1 points, and he threw 10 of his 12 interceptions. 

Tannehill finally looked like he was turning the corner under Gase's supervision before he suffered ACL and MCL sprains in his left knee, causing him to miss the final three regular-season contests and the Dolphins' playoff appearance. 

However, the entire offensive interior is unsettled. 

Center Mike Pouncey is recovering from a hip injury that cost him 11 games last season. According to the Miami Herald's Adam H. Beasley, the team is considering placing him on the PUP list at the start of training camp to have him ready for the season. 

Guard is also an issue, since Laremy Tunsil will move to left tackle after Branden Albert's trade to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This leaves veterans Jermon Bushrod and Ted Larsen to compete with Kraig Urbik, Anthony Steen and rookie Isaac Asiata for starting gigs. 

The Dolphins aren't just soft along the offensive interior. The defensive front needs help, too. Ndamukong Suh and Co. finished 30th against the run. Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell gashed Miami for 167 rushing yards during their Wild Card matchup. 

Suh still dominates, but the rest of the front needs to improve. The free-agent acquisition of linebacker Lawrence Timmons should help. The unit needs more from third-year defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, too. 

If the Dolphins don't present the same type of physicality seen last season, their approach will falter this fall.

New York Giants

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Trying to identify why the New York Giants can't repeat last season's success is difficult. 

The team still has Eli Manning behind center. The offense is loaded at receiver, especially after the acquisitions of Brandon Marshall and first-round tight end Evan Engram. Paul Perkins should improve during his second campaign. And the defense finished second overall last season by surrendering only 17.8 points per game. 

Usually, the combination of a franchise quarterback, dynamic skill positions and a strong defense indicate a consistent playoff participant. Even so, the Giants are far from a complete team. 

Manning's resume speaks for itself, yet his level of play in 2016 declined to its worst since 2011, according to Pro Football Focus. The 36-year-old signal-caller saw his touchdown passes and yards per attempt decrease compared to the previous two seasons, while his interceptions increased. Manning's decision-making—good or bad—has always been a driving force behind the Giants' success. 

The two-time Super Bowl-winning signal-caller needs to remain upright to prove his play isn't declining, though.

But the Giants' biggest question mark falls at left tackle, where former top-10 pick Ereck Flowers has been one of the NFL's worst blindside protectors since coming into the league two years ago. During that span, the 23-year-old blocker allowed an NFL-high 128 pressures, per Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke. 

A competition will also ensue at right guard between John Jerry and first-round bust D.J. Fluker. As a result, the offensive line will need time to build continuity. 

Flowers' improvement isn't the only ever-present concern on offense. How superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. responds to adversity is another. His production and talent are undeniable, but the Giants need him focused and not making mistakes when defensive backs try to get into his head. 

The defense remained intact with one major exception. Defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins signed with the Indianapolis Colts in free agency. General manager Jerry Reese drafted Alabama's Dalvin Tomlinson in the second round to serve as Hankins' replacement, though it's always risky to rely on a rookie.

If everything doesn't come together, the team can easily fall behind its NFC East rivals. The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a 13-3 campaign and developed a pair of stars in quarterback Dak Prescott and runner Ezekiel Elliott. The Washington Redskins still have quarterback Kirk Cousins, and they're only one season removed from a division title. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles finished 7-9 last season and made major investments at wide receiver and cornerback this offseason. 

A slight step back could force the Giants out of the division race and playoff picture.