Ranking Every NFL Division from Worst to First
It's the end of June, everyone. That means us sports fans watch baseball games, break down basketball and hockey drafts and make and/or read lists about football. It's been built into the sports calendar since the dawn of the internet age.
But I'm taking a break from ranking players, coaches, executives and teams. With July nearly upon us, I'm ready to graduate to divisions.
Here's how I view all eight of 'em in the NFL, from worst to first.
8. NFC West: No Middle Class
1 of 8
2016 record: 23-39-2
2016 playoff teams: 1 — Seattle (10-5-1, lost in divisional round)
How quickly divisions fall.
Only a few years ago, the NFC West was a powerhouse. Between 2012 and 2015, it posted a combined record of 148-106-2 while sending eight teams to the playoffs with double-digit wins.
Now, it's the only division in football with multiple teams—the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers—in the early stages of rebuilds and another—the Arizona Cardinals—arguably on the cusp of having to follow suit.
The only real contender is Seattle, but it's fair to wonder if the Seahawks would be less hyped if they were in a division that contained competitive opponents. Quarterback Russell Wilson is coming off the worst season of his career, and the offensive line remains a mess. The running game was often nonexistent last season, and the receiving corps lacks talent beyond Doug Baldwin. Also, the Legion of Boom defense isn't quite what it used to be.
Seattle made back-to-back Super Bowls in 2013 and 2014, but it failed to return to the conference championship the last two years. The 'Hawks will likely cruise through a terrible division again in 2017, but they're no longer the cream of the NFC crop. And they can't save the NFC West from the basement.
The 49ers and Rams won a combined six games last season and still don't have answers at quarterback as new coaching staffs take over, while the aging Cardinals—who went 7-8-1 last year and were gutted in free agency—will be relying on old man Carson Palmer to stay healthy and productive. That's something the 37-year-old has pulled off just once in his four seasons in Arizona.
This is a division with one good yet slightly overrated team and three you shouldn't expect to put up fights.
Projected 2017 record: 24-40
Projected 2017 playoff teams: 1 (Seattle)
7. NFC North: Bad Momentum
2 of 8
2016 record: 30-34
2016 playoff teams: 2 — Green Bay (10-6, lost NFC title game), Detroit (9-7, lost wild card)
Teams not named the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North had better hope momentum can't carry over from season to season. The Minnesota Vikings lost eight of their last 11 games after a 5-0 start to the 2016 campaign, the Detroit Lions lost their last four (including the wild card) after peaking at 9-4 last year, and the Chicago Bears lost four straight and seven of their last eight to wrap a dreadful last-place season in their division.
To their credit, the Vikings, Lions and Bears made efforts in the offseason to fix what appeared to be broken. Minnesota retooled its wretched offensive line and revamped the league's worst running game, and Detroit also upgraded its O-line. Chicago brought in two new quarterbacks in free-agent acquisition Mike Glennon and rookie No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky.
But that might not be enough for this division to improve. That's true even if the Packers continue to ride the wave—manufactured by Aaron Rodgers, the highest-rated passer in NFL history—that allowed them to overcome a slew of injuries in order to win eight straight games en route to the NFC Championship Game versus the Atlanta Falcons.
There's still no guarantee the O-line tweaks will help the Vikes or that 2017 second-round pick Dalvin Cook or tailor-made platoon back Latavius Murray fix the running game.
Remember, Minnesota struggled last season despite the fact captain-checkdown quarterback Sam Bradford posted the highest single-season completion percentage (71.6) in league history. That's his ceiling. And Teddy Bridgewater won't likely save the Vikes. The 8-8 squad will be lucky to repeat that in 2017.
Meanwhile, the Lions played over their heads. They weren't as good as their 9-7 record indicates, as they put together a series of last-second comebacks in order to beat mediocre-to-bad teams. It's not realistic to expect quarterback Matthew Stafford to once again put together an NFL-record eight fourth-quarter comebacks.
That means the team—graded 27th in the NFL by Football Outsiders in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average)—is likely to come back to earth regardless of some minor offseason improvements.
And the Bears are probably aware they're destined to remain in the basement as they work on a transition under center. They lost wide receiver Alshon Jeffery to the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency, and they didn't do much in the offseason to immediately improve a defense that ranked 24th in terms of points allowed (399).
Green Bay should be better after a tough-luck season, but nobody else is a contender here.
Projected 2017 record: 29-35
Projected 2017 playoff teams: 1 (Green Bay)
6. AFC North: The Unpredictables
3 of 8
2016 record: 26-37-1
2016 playoff teams: 1 — Pittsburgh (11-5, lost AFC title game)
The AFC North might be the NFL's most unpredictable division.
We know the Pittsburgh Steelers—led by arguably the best offensive trio in the league and coming off an AFC Championship Game appearance—are one of the best teams in football. But quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, 35, has shown some wear and tear in recent years, and he and stud running back Le'Veon Bell have had some trouble staying on the field consistently.
There are also some depth questions beyond Roethlisberger, Bell and All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown, and a good-not-great defense didn't do much in the offseason to improve a secondary that remains a liability.
But we're nitpicking a bit there. Pittsburgh is a Super Bowl contender. The real question marks are the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, none of whom posted winning records last season.
Baltimore was 8-8 before losing key offensive players Rick Wagner and Kyle Juszczyk in free agency and Steve Smith Sr. to retirement. The Ravens did sign receiver Jeremy Maclin and promising safety Tony Jefferson, but they're relying on a lot of old dudes on both sides of the ball.
If Maclin (29 years old), quarterback Joe Flacco (32) and linebacker Terrell Suggs (turns 35 in October) stay healthy and produce—and if somebody emerges at running back—the Ravens could win double-digit games. But there's a good chance the opposite happens and they win no more than a handful.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati again slept through free agency, losing key offensive linemen Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler while failing to sign a difference-maker. It might take time for No. 9 overall pick John Ross to make a difference at receiver his rookie season, and the defense lacks teeth up front while featuring several old men on the back end. Why should anyone expect them to win more than the six games they won last season?
The Browns are intriguing. They have several half-decent options at quarterback, added two solid offensive linemen in Zeitler and JC Tretter and have three exciting first-round rookies in Myles Garrett (No. 1 overall), Jabrill Peppers (No. 25) and David Njoku (No. 29).
They should be a lot better than the one-win team we saw last year, but there remains a lot of mystery, as the squad has few proven players. The Browns are probably at least a year away from being competitive, but they should at least win several games in 2017.
Still, there's only one truly good team in this division.
Projected 2017 record: 30-34
Projected 2017 playoff teams: 1 (Pittsburgh)
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5. AFC East: King's Landing
4 of 8
2016 record: 36-28
2016 playoff teams: 2 — New England (14-2, won Super Bowl), Miami (10-6, lost wild card)
The AFC East is home to the king. The division is carried by its juggernaut leader, the New England Patriots.
The Pats, of course, won a league-high 14 regular-season games in 2016 en route to another championship. They've won the AFC East crown in 13 of the last 14 seasons, which is unbelievable in an age of extreme parity.
And they look like they'll be even better this year after adding stud receiver Brandin Cooks, promising backs Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead and starting-caliber defenders Stephon Gilmore and Kony Ealy in the offseason. Plus, superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski is expected to be healthy this time around.
The Patriots make this division decent, but there are three other teams in the AFC East. And at least one of them, the Miami Dolphins, gives the division a few extra points.
After all, Miami—led by breakout quarterback-running back duo Ryan Tannehill and Jay Ajayi, along with a deep receiving corps—made the playoffs with a 10-win 2016 campaign. And that happened despite the fact Tannehill missed the final three weeks of the regular season because of a knee injury.
Miami should again be a playoff contender in 2017, while the New York Jets might struggle to win more than a game or two after purging their roster in the early stages of what can positively be described as a rebuild and negatively be called a tank.
That leaves the Buffalo Bills as the division's wild card. They have a talented quarterback, but Tyrod Taylor lacks consistency. They've had trouble relying on Sammy Watkins—the No. 4 overall pick in 2014—at receiver, and running back LeSean McCoy's tires might nearly be bald. Nothing jumps out at you when looking at their depth chart, which shouldn't be surprising for a team that is coming off three consecutive seasons in which it won between seven and nine games.
That'll probably happen again in 2017.
Projected 2017 record: 35-29
Projected 2017 playoff teams: 1 (New England)
4. AFC South: The Future
5 of 8
2016 record: 29-35
2016 playoff teams: 1 — Houston (9-7, lost in divisional round)
No division in the NFL contains as much promise as the AFC South, which was a punchline as recently as a year ago but now has four young and talented teams that have immediate playoff potential.
It starts with the Tennessee Titans, who won nine games with second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota last season and should be even better in 2017 with top picks Corey Davis (No. 5) and Adoree' Jackson (No. 18) as well as free-agent additions Eric Decker, Johnathan Cyprien and Logan Ryan. The Titans were riding an upward trajectory even before making big moves in the offseason, so they have to be viewed as a team that could win 11 or 12 games.
But then there are the Indianapolis Colts, who have the division's most accomplished quarterback in Andrew Luck. Throw in 2016 receiving-yardage leader T.Y. Hilton and a defense that should be greatly improved after adding front-seven defenders Jabaal Sheard, Johnathan Hankins, John Simon, Margus Hunt, Barkevious Mingo, Sean Spence and Al Woods in free agency, and you have a team that could make a deep playoff run.
That's assuming Luck and Co. can stay healthy. When that was the case three years ago, Indy found itself in the AFC Championship Game.
And it's important not to ignore the defending division champion Houston Texans. They accomplished that feat last season despite having the third-lowest team passer rating (73.3) in the NFL. Now, general manager Rick Smith has jettisoned Brock Osweiler and added No. 12 overall pick Deshaun Watson to the fray at quarterback.
Even more promising: The Texans—who had the league's top-rated defense last year—will be getting back three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt after the defensive end missed virtually the entire 2016 season because of back issues.
Coming off a three-win season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are easy to overlook. But the Jags were a way better team than their record indicated last year. Football Outsiders assigns teams "Pythagorean wins," which, as the site explains it, "represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed."
If that metric is any indication, Jacksonville should have won nearly twice as many games (5.8) as it did. So the law of averages was likely to help the Jaguars regardless of offseason improvements. And yet they added Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye and Barry Church to an already-talented defense in free agency before drafting Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Leonard Fournette fourth overall, according to OddsShark.
They'll probably spend some time beating up on one another throughout the year, but all four of those teams should win more games in 2017 than they did in 2016.
Projected 2017 record: 35-29
Projected 2017 playoff teams: 2 (Tennessee, Indianapolis)
3. NFC South: The Division of the Quarterback
6 of 8
2016 record: 33-31
2016 playoff teams: 1 — Atlanta (11-5, lost Super Bowl)
This is a quarterback's league. In fact, the last five seasons have been the most pass-heavy campaigns in NFL history. That's why the NFC South is so strong, despite the fact there are questions regarding all four of its teams.
We don't know if the 2016 Atlanta Falcons were a one-hit wonder. They're young and inexperienced and coming off the most heartbreaking Super Bowl loss in league history. In the process, they lost both of their coordinators—they let go DC Richard Smith, while OC Kyle Shanahan left to coach the 49ers . But quarterback Matt Ryan was the league MVP in 2016 after putting together one of the best statistical seasons in NFL history.
We don't know if the 2017 Carolina Panthers can bounce back from an ugly 6-10 season. Carolina didn't do much in free agency aside from signing bust left tackle Matt Kalil to an overinflated contract ($55.5 million over five years), and it'll be relying on rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel to help fix an offense that lacked weapons in 2016. But quarterback Cam Newton was the league MVP in 2015 after putting together a transcendent season en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
We don't know if the New Orleans Saints have done enough to fix a defense that has allowed a league-high 29.1 points per game since the start of 2015. But quarterback Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer, and he hasn't slowed down. Brees is coming off a Pro Bowl season in which he ranked second in the league with a completion percentage of 70.0, first with 5,208 yards, third with 37 touchdowns and fifth with a 101.7 passer rating.
And we don't know how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will react to big offseason changes, especially as a team that is still a work in progress coming off a ninth consecutive non-playoff season. They're likely to continue to improve in 2017 after increasing their win total from two in 2014 to six in 2015 to nine in 2016. And adding veteran wide receiver DeSean Jackson as well as promising rookie pass-catchers O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin doesn't hurt. But the Bucs will only go as far as 2015 No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston allows. He's the franchise, and the good news is his third season could be explosive.
Projected 2017 record: 37-27
Projected 2017 playoff teams: 2 (Atlanta, Tampa Bay)
2. NFC East: Because This Isn't a Popularity Contest
7 of 8
2016 record: 39-24-1
2016 playoff teams: 2 — Dallas (13-3, lost in divisional round), Giants (11-5, lost wild card)
Because it has four of the most popular teams in football, the NFC East gets more attention than any other division in the NFL. In recent years, because the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins have all struggled more often than not, that attention has felt unwarranted.
But while the league's "coolest" division still isn't its best, we can no longer call it the "NFC Least."
That's because all four teams have the ability to do damage in 2017, starting with a Dallas squad led by 2016 rookie sensations Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott at quarterback and running back, respectively.
The cap-strapped Cowboys lost some key defensive backs in the offseason, including Morris Claiborne and J.J. Wilcox, but a team that won 13 games last year should still be considered a contender as long as Prescott and Elliott avoid sophomore slumps. Having arguably the best offensive line in the league and pass-catchers named Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Cole Beasley helps.
But it's been more than a decade since the same team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons, and the Giants—who haven't won it since 2011 but are coming off a playoff season—are due. Big Blue have one of the best defenses in the league, a proven quarterback in Eli Manning and a young superstar receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. If everyone can stay healthy and the line and running game can hold up, the Giants could win even more than their 11 games last season.
The Redskins, though, have won the division twice since 2011, and underrated Pro Bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins has a promising young receiving corps, several high-quality options at running back and a superb offensive line.
Cousins has led the 'Skins to back-to-back winning seasons, and if he can keep it up and the defense can hold it together, Washington should again contend for the playoffs—and maybe even a division title—in 2017.
The Eagles are more of a wild card considering that quarterback Carson Wentz was the league's lowest-rated qualified passer if you exclude a hot four-game start from his maiden campaign. Wentz will either continue to struggle and prove to be a bust, or he'll take off with a full offseason under his belt with head coach/quarterback guru Doug Pederson.
It could help that the Eagles gave him several new weapons in the offseason, with former 1,000-yard receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith and 1,000-yard rusher LeGarrette Blount joining the fray. It wouldn't be surprising if the Eagles won 10 games, but it also wouldn't be shocking if they lost 10.
Projected 2017 record: 39-25
Projected 2017 playoff teams: 2 (New York, Washington)
1. AFC West: An Embarrassment of Riches
8 of 8
2016 record: 38-26
2016 playoff teams: 2 — Kansas City (12-4, lost in divisional round), Oakland (12-4, lost wild card)
Despite the fact half of its teams announced relocation plans this offseason—the Chargers already moved from San Diego to Los Angeles, while the Oakland Raiders will soon be in Las Vegas—the AFC West is clearly the strongest all-around division in the league when it comes to football prowess.
It's hard to find a flaw on the Raiders roster, especially now that quarterback Derek Carr, who signed a deal worth $25 million per year, appears to be fully recovered from a broken leg and Marshawn Lynch came back from retirement to help bolster the running game.
Oakland also has one of the best offensive lines in the game, a stud No. 1 receiver in Amari Cooper, two superstar front-seven defenders in Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin and a depth chart that is becoming deeper across the board with the additions of guys like Lynch, tight end Jared Cook and 2017 first-round pick Gareon Conley.
But the Raiders didn't even win the division last year, partly because they lost Carr to that broken leg in Week 16, but also because the Kansas City Chiefs often looked unbeatable after a 2-2 start. With Alex Smith at his game-managing best, Spencer Ware breaking out at running back, Travis Kelce becoming a star at tight end and rookie Tyreek Hill exploding to become the first player in NFL history to score three-plus touchdowns as a receiver, a runner and a return man in one season, the Chiefs went 6-0 on the road during the final three months of the year. And the Marcus Peters- and Eric Berry-led defense carried them, allowing just 19.4 points per game.
But the Chiefs didn't have the best defense in the division because the 2015 Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos were again lights-out on that side of the ball. Denver ranked first in football in terms of defensive DVOA, with Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib and Von Miller all putting together dominant seasons. That allowed the Broncos to win nine games despite the fact the offense lacked firepower and balance. If they can get a little bit more of either in 2017, the Broncos should win double-digit games.
The somewhat nomadic Chargers are "that other team" in the league's best division, but the criminally underrated Bolts would actually be right there with projected first-place finishers in any other division except the AFC East. They're in the wrong division at the wrong time, but don't be surprised if they do some major damage in 2017.
They're stacked on both sides of the ball with veteran gunslinger quarterback Philip Rivers able to utilize Keenan Allen (assuming he stays healthy), rookie first-rounder Mike Williams, Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry and several other high-quality weapons on offense. And 2016 Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa will be teaming with top-notch pass-rusher Melvin Ingram and elite corners Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward on D.
Luck wasn't on the Chargers' side in 2016, but if that changes in 2017, they could make a run. That makes four teams in this division that possess the ability to get to the Super Bowl.
Projected 2017 record: 40-24
Projected 2017 playoff teams: 2 (Oakland, Chargers)
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