J.B. Bukauskas: Prospect Profile, MLB Comparison for Astros' 1st-Round Pick

Player: J.B. Bukauskas

Position: RHP

DOB: Oct. 11, 1996 (20 years old)

Height/Weight: 6'0", 195 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

School: North Carolina

Previously Drafted: 2014 (20th round, Arizona Diamondbacks)

Background

J.B. Bukauskas was in the mix to be picked in the first round of the 2014 draft after he reclassified from a junior to a senior prior to the start of that year's high school season. Baseball America ranked him as the No. 33 prospect in the class heading into the draft.

He was set on honoring his commitment to the University of North Carolina, however, and did just that after slipping to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 20th round.

Turning away potential first-round money—especially given the fickle nature of pitching prospects—is always a risky move, but it looks like it was the right one for Bukauskas.

After a so-so freshman season for the Tar Heels, his stuff took a big step forward last spring, when he struck out 111 batters in 78.1 innings while pitching to a 3.10 ERA.

He followed that with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League (9.2 IP, 3.72 ERA, 17 K) and an impressive turn with the U.S. national team (21.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 21 K), which set the table for a dominant junior campaign.

Over 13 regular-season starts for UNC, he was 8-0 with a 1.87 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 82 innings and lowered his WHIP from 1.24 in 2016 to 1.01.

However, he wrapped up the spring with a dud against Davidson (3.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 5 K) in the regional opener.

Still, the biggest question remains what role will he fill at the next level?

Pick Analysis

Because of Bukauskas' undersized frame, delivery that features some effort and dominant two-pitch mix, some believe his future is at the back of the bullpen.

MLB.com provided the following scouting report:

"At his best, Bukauskas can blow away hitters with a pair of double-plus pitches in a mid-90s fastball with sink and a mid-80s slider with tilt. His slider isn't as consistent as his heater, but it's still a plus offering more often than not. Bukauskas made good progress working on his changeup while with Team USA, and it shows signs of becoming at least an average pitch with armside run.

"Bukauskas has toned down his delivery in college, but he still throws with effort, and he's a 6' right-hander, so there's concern that he might be destined for the bullpen rather than the rotation. Some scouts who believe he can make it as a starter liken him to Sonny Gray, and others say he has better command than the similarly sized Carson Fulmer, the No. 8 overall pick in the 2015 draft. If Bukauskas winds up as a reliever, he definitely has closer upside."

There were similar concerns about Fulmer when he was drafted out of Vanderbilt, but the Chicago White Sox are still giving him every chance to prove he's capable of starting.

Expect the same patience to be afforded to Bukauskas once he begins his pro career.

MLB Player Comparison: Marcus Stroman

Chris Carlson/Associated Press

After pitching primarily out of the bullpen during his first two seasons at Duke, most pegged the 5'8" Marcus Stroman as a fast-moving future reliever when the Toronto Blue Jays selected him with the No. 22 pick in the 2012 draft.

Now the 26-year-old is fresh off a season in which he worked a career-high 204 innings, and there's no question he should be taking the ball every fifth day.

The hope is that Bukauskas can prove to be similarly durable.

Stroman regularly keeps hitters off balance with a mix of five different pitches, while Bukauskas is still working to develop his changeup into a third viable offering, so from an overall repertoire standpoint, this might not be the best comparison.

Stroman pitches mainly off a live fastball and a hard slider, however, and that's exactly what Bukauskas has used to dominate college hitters this spring.

Stroman and Fulmer came with obvious risks, but they also offered relatively high floors given their potential impact out of the bullpen if starting didn't pan out.

Projection: No. 2 starter upside if his changeup and command continue to improve; potential future closer if he lands in the bullpen.

Major League ETA: 2021 as a starter; late 2019 as a reliever

Chances of Signing: 99 percent

Perhaps the biggest signability concern of the 2014 draft now looks like a lock to get his pro career started.

College statistics courtesy of The Baseball Cube unless otherwise noted and accurate through Sunday, June 11.